Author: ASPO-USA

Given that shale oil production is, in fact, currently doing the most to meet growing oil demand, any shale oil ‘bust’ is likely to have significant implications for an already-strained oil market. [1] While there’s some (strained) logic to the efforts of fossil fuel industry officials and their spokespeople to do nothing but offer the most optimistic scenarios and forecasts about future oil supply and production, it’s impossible to imagine that those in charge are not contemplating the very same facts we on the “other side” of the discussion regularly share. Facts are stubborn things. They refuse to go away, for one. Ideology and optimism may carry one today, but eventually there simply is nothing left to contend with except those often-inconvenient truths. It’s also understandable that foregoing today the accessible and still-economically-feasible extraction and production opportunities at hand in favor of transitioning their own efforts to efforts largely […]

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Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment,and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories The Stone Age came to an end not for a shortage of stones. The Coal Age came to an end not for a shortage of coal. But, contra […]

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Robert Gordon has painted a dark picture of the world’s long-run economic growth prospects. But if the past is any guide, he will likely join the band of earlier distinguished economists who proved to be far too pessimistic about the human capacity to innovate. Dennis Robertson, the renowned Cambridge economist and a contemporary of John Maynard Keynes, famously remarked that economic fashion was like going to the greyhound races. If one stood still long enough, the dogs would come around one more time. This certainly seems to be the case with fashions in economic pessimism about the long-term economic growth prospects of the world’s advanced industrial economies. Each time these economies stumble, there is no shortage of economists who come out of the woodwork to advance plausible reasons as to why the limits of economic growth might have been reached. Yet each time, events seem to have proved these […]

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Until Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère published their paper The End of Cheap Oil in 1998 (Campbell & Laherrére, 1998), the petroleum geologist Marion King Hubbert (1903 – 1989) was all but forgotten, including his correct forecast – back in 1956 – of the US’s peak of oil production in 1970 (Hubbert, 1956). In their paper Campbell and Laherrère warned that: “Barring a global recession, it seems most likely that world production of conventional oil will peak during the first decade of the 21st century.” It took another 12 years, but eventually the oil production optimist par excellence, the International Energy Agency (IEA, of the OECD countries), also had to admit the undeniable in their World Energy Outlook of 2010 (IEA, 2010): “Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68–69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all‐time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, […]

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Yes, we see 10 early warnings that Big Oil stocks are going to trigger an economic collapse by 2020, maybe 50% as gas prices go through your SUV’s sunroof. A contrarian view? Yes, pump prices already shot up 11% this year. Plus Big Oil cherishes its new role as exporter: Bloomberg’s even predicting the U.S. will “surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output.” So why worry? Why contrarian? Because a decade ago the Bush Pentagon predicted that by 2020 “an ancient pattern of desperate, all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies would emerge” as global “warfare is defining human life.” But, that’s light years away in today’s twitter-brain world where today’s news is so bullish: “100% of economists think yields will rise within six months,” no recession in […]

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With 2013 in the rearview mirror, peak oil is beginning to create big problems for big oil. Free cash flow is like the canary in the coal mine. Earnings can be massaged with accounting magic, but it is more difficult to massage free cash flow. Total (NYSE: TOT ), along with its fellow big oil brethren, has seen its free cash flow fall significantly in 2013. Now is the time to examine the fundamentals and see just what sort of unique risks and challenges big oil faces. Oil prices are stable, but free cash flow is falling TOT Free Cash Flow (TTM) data by YCharts Sometimes, falling free cash flow is a short-term issue. Such was the case after the 2008 oil crash. Oil prices fell, and as a result free cash flow fell as well. The current downturn is different. Oil prices have remained relatively stable and yet free […]

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Over the next decade and a half, 2.5 billion people in China, India and other developing countries will join the global middle class. They are going to need skyscrapers to live in and superstores to shop in. They are going to want smartphones, cars, flank steaks, air conditioning, pet clothing, Disneyland vacations, and probably some throw pillows. How is a planet already straining under the pressure of today’s 2 billion middle class consumers going to accommodate 2.5 billion additional ones? For many observers, this unprecedented economic growth foretells a Malthusian meltdown. In this scenario, skyrocketing demand for scarce natural resources will lead to unchecked carbon emissions, water wars, massive deforestation, $100 Big Macs for the rich and cricket-meat Bug Macs for everyone else. McKinsey director Matt Rogers and Stanford professor Stefan Heck have a more optimistic take on the future. In their compelling new book, Resource Revolution , they […]

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Researchers from the University of Maryland and a leading university in Spain demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (“Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors. While critics of Peak Oil studies declare that the world has more than enough oil to maintain current national and global standards, these UMD-led researchers say Peak Oil is imminent, if not already here—and is a real threat to national and global economies. Their study is among the first to outline a way of assessing the vulnerabilities of specific economic sectors to this threat, and to identify focal points for action that could strengthen the U.S. economy and make it less vulnerable to disasters. Their work, “Economic Vulnerability to Peak Oil,” appears in Global Environmental Change […]

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There has been considerable debate lately on what effect the supply and price of oil is having on the economy. It is, to my mind, a lot more serious than the vast majority of economists believe. In fact one can just look at what is happening today to see the effect of a constrained oil supply and high oil prices. Just look at the unemployment rate: Real unemployment is double what it was in 2007. And it is creeping higher. If you have not watched Oil Supply and Demand Forecasting with Steven Kopits   then you have missed the best and most informative video that has come along since this whole debate started over a decade ago. I have just finished watching it for the third time. This time I made notes. Kopits makes it very clear that oil is a binding constraint on economic growth. Of course that […]

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Apparently, the possibility that some innovations might be introduced, if they aren’t already in an undefined but probably—or at least likely—manner in certain instances where there could be some potentially good news provided that certain other events fall into place exactly as some are hoping for at some point, but in a good way (just not consistent with facts or reality, but why quibble), then by golly we might possibly see oil prices drop, which, coupled with the distinct possibility that certain savings could be achieved immediately after magic happens, could result in something good—perhaps. (Of course, lower oil prices would lead to lower profits and lower investment funds available and thus end a lot of exploration and production, but hey! Prices will be lower.) We won’t have anything to buy, but it will be cheaper…. That’s the essential point offered in a recent addition to the endless parade […]

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“Wait a minute,” you must be saying. “Haven’t we been hearing from the oil industry and from government and international agencies that worldwide oil production has been increasing in the last several years?” The answer, of course, is yes. But, the deeper question is whether this assertion is actually correct. Here is a key fact that casts doubt on the official reporting: When the industry and the government talk about the price of oil sold on world markets and traded on futures exchanges, they mean one thing. But, when they talk about the total production of oil, they actually mean something quite different–namely, a much broader category that includes all kinds of things that are simply not oil  and that could never be sold on the world market as oil. I’ve written about this issue of the true definition of oil before.  But Texas oilman Jeffrey Brown has been […]

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We live in a society where it is impossible to live a functional lifestyle and not consume products made from petro-chemicals every single day — electronics, fabrics, painkillers, food additives, cosmetics, fabrics, cleaning supplies, building materials, the list goes on. More than ever, it is precisely because it is incredibly difficult to survive outside of our wasteful, exploitative and fossil fuel-obsessed system that we need environmentalists and other activists — yes, even if they own a cellphone and wear cheaply manufactured clothing — advocating for alternative means of production and modes of consumption. (links in original) [1] Waiting for industry officials or their paid media mouthpieces—or political leaders with votes to gather—to deliver the truthful but sobering set of facts about our future energy supply will guarantee a long wait. Too many self-serving and short-term interests to be tended to make it unlikely we’ll get the honest and full […]

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By Competition often breeds excellence. Nowhere else does this cliché hold more true than in the shale boom that’s currently underway. In North Dakota, we see drillers are consistently improving their operational efficiencies with practically every new well drilled. Independent companies like Continental Resources have lowered their average well costs in the Bakken by almost 20%. Their success is far from an anomaly, and it has become a standard for every other operator. What’s more is that this isn’t restricted to just North Dakota. Today, competition has helped the oil bonanza spread like wildfire across the lower 48 states as new drilling technology unfolds. Unfortunately, that simply isn’t the case for everyone. Boom to Bust for Big Oil Take a look at the other side of the spectrum. Alaska has arguably been the most sensational disappointment in the U.S. oil industry since the 1980s, and the blame rests squarely […]

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Competition often breeds excellence. Nowhere else does this cliché hold more true than in the shale boom that’s currently underway. In North Dakota, we see drillers are consistently improving their operational efficiencies with practically every new well drilled. Independent companies like Continental Resources have lowered their average well costs in the Bakken by almost 20%. Their success is far from an anomaly, and it has become a standard for every other operator. What’s more is that this isn’t restricted to just North Dakota. Today, competition has helped the oil bonanza spread like wildfire across the lower 48 states as new drilling technology unfolds. Unfortunately, that simply isn’t the case for everyone. Boom to Bust for Big Oil Take a look at the other side of the spectrum. Alaska has arguably been the most sensational disappointment in the U.S. oil industry since the 1980s, and the blame rests squarely on […]

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Saved Save Article My Saved Items « » 2014-04-10T05:30:00Z Commentary: The Greens’ Peak-Oil Limits-to-Growth Apocalypse that wasn’t By RON KNECHT Elko Daily Free Press A few years ago, some experts predicted the world was about to reach a peak in global oil and gas production to be followed soon by marked decline. It would cause “war, famine, pestilence and death” — the biblical Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Another version: “war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens.” Or, peak oil and gas “represents a mortal threat to the U.S. economy” and we “could plunge into a new Dark Age … in an overheated world.” This one lamented that it might well exacerbate “global warming” and thus it called for higher energy taxes and increased limits on coal alternatives. Besides the extravagant rhetoric typical of environmentalists, the Politically Correct and other statist liberals, even when these […]

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Peak Oil is You Gail Tverberg shares some of the most insightful observations about the connection between economic growth and energy. In an article posted at her website several weeks, she raised issues which are too often shunted aside in the primary debate of  “not enough” versus “all we need” fossil fuel supplies in the years to come. They’re too important to continuously skip past. I’d like to focus on just a couple of the (as usual) excellent points she raised. We do not have an alternate fuel supply that will allow the economy to continue to grow, regardless of fossil fuel consumption. The published reserves include large amounts of oil in the ground that are not of the very cheap to extract type. Extracting such oil will be impossible if oil prices are very low, or if credit availability is lacking. It is tempting for observers to look […]

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Alternative energy depends heavily on engineered equipment and infrastructure for capture or conversion. However, the full supply chain for alternative energy, from raw materials to manufacturing, is still very dependent on fossil fuel energy. [In the end, how can you get rid of fossil fuels when you need them to construct alternative energy resources?]…. The discussion is further complicated by political biases, ignorance of basic science, and a lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the problem facing societies accustomed to inexpensive fossil energy as the era of abundance concludes. [1] I’ve consistently and repeatedly urged a greater awareness of the challenges diminishing supplies of oil and gas will impose upon all is. Political affiliations and stamp-your-feet-and-hold-your-breath resistance to the realities of finite, ever-harder to find and extract fossil fuel resources won’t help anyone. Coupled with that awareness (dependent in no small part on a lot more honesty and […]

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The real question for the United States is not about optimal trade policy or economic theory, but whether we want to extract the last drops of our oil endowment as quickly as possible by enabling the debt-fueled land rush that has brought us a gratifying, but temporary, bump in production, or whether we want to make it last as long as possible, knowing that two or three decades from now the world will be absolutely desperate for the stuff, with scarce exports and unimaginably high prices. [1] So what will it be? But before the question can be answered meaningfully, information about what’s at stake; where we stand now; what the future energy supplies prospects hold; together with an assortment of related but just as important considerations need to be fully disclosed. And there’s the rub. There are two strong camps with just as strong opinions about energy supplies […]

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In August 2012, I interviewed James Schlesinger over the phone as part of research for my upcoming book, The Oracle of Oil , the first biography of maverick geologist M. King Hubbert. Schlesinger and Hubbert shared a deep interest and concern in the issue of peak oil —specifically, the question of when world oil production might reach an all-time high, and then begin to decline, marking a turning point between an era of plenty to an era of scarcity. During Schlesinger’s time in office as the United States’ first Secretary of Energy—a post President Jimmy Carter created specifically for Schlesinger —he’d spoken about this issue of peak oil. He saw that such a peak of world oil production would have profound effects on the U.S. and the world. (Before becoming Secretary of Energy, Schlesinger had held various positions in the Nixon and Ford Administrations, including Director of Central Intelligence […]

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I was going over the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013 and noticed a few things you might find interesting. Exactly what is their opinion on Peak Oil? Here, cut and pasted from the report. Got that? The URR is great enough to delay any peak until after 2035. Here is one of their graphs that indicate how much they think is left, coal, gas and oil. Okay 54 years of proven reserves. That puts the peak out to well past mid century. Likely well past 2100 if you count those remaining recoverable resources. And just who has all this oil? 2.2 trillion barrels of conventional crude oil resources. However only 1.7 trillion barrels of that has a 90% probability of being recoverable. Of this the Middle East has the lions share, 971 billion barrels of resources with a 90% probability of recovering 813 billion barrels of that.   The […]

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The thin blue line at the top right is Laherrère’s prediction of the grand totals, differing considerably from the others. He explains: “The confidential technical data on [mean values of proven + probable reserves] is only available from expensive and very large scout databases. . . . There is a huge difference between the political/financial proved reserves [so-called], and the confidential technical [proven + probable] reserves. . . . Most economists . . . rely only on the proved reserves coming from [the Oil and Gas Journal, the US Energy Information Administration], BP and OPEC data, which are wrong; they have no access to the confidential technical data.” The difference between his figures and the various government figures is enormous. It reminds me of the 1950s, when M.K. Hubbert and others were saying one thing, and the government was saying quite the opposite. A few years ago I met […]

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While global financial markets are still levitating somewhere between the stratosphere and the Kingdom of Asgard, by 60°24′31″ North and 172°43′12″ West, in the middle of nowhere, an isolated island of 137.857 sq-mi holds the key of three major economic developments and risks: November 2013, Lawrence Summers raised the question whether the “secular stagnation” and the impossibility for the US and other major economies to grow without the help of recurring bubbles was not doomed to become the “new normal”. March 2014, the Conference Board released a study (figure 1) showing the falling trend in global total factor productivity, i.e. in the share of output not explained by the “accumulation of factors” (more on this economic jargon below). March 2014 again, the NASA published a research paper answering to “widespread concerns that current trends in resource-used are unsustainable, but possibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial”. This study tells us that, […]

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While global financial markets are still levitating somewhere between the stratosphere and the Kingdom of Asgard, by 60°24′31″ North and 172°43′12″ West, in the middle of nowhere, an isolated island of 137.857 sq-mi holds the key of three major economic developments and risks: November 2013, Lawrence Summers raised the question whether the “secular stagnation” and the impossibility for the US and other major economies to grow without the help of recurring bubbles was not doomed to become the “new normal”. March 2014, the Conference Board released a study (figure 1) showing the falling trend in global total factor productivity, i.e. in the share of output not explained by the “accumulation of factors” (more on this economic jargon below). March 2014 again, the NASA published a research paper answering to “widespread concerns that current trends in resource-used are unsustainable, but possibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial”. This study tells us that, […]

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This page Texas Oil and Gas Production  was last updated on February 18. However the data on this page has been updated. And the January production has been updated also: Oil and Gas Production Data Query  then check “Lease”, “Both”, Statewide and then punch in the appropriate dates. Then when the next page comes up click on “Monthly Totals”. This brings up the updated monthly totals for Crude, Casinghead Gas, Gas Well Gas and Condensate. There were revisions going back to July 2010 but only 2013 had any major revisions though there were some 2012 revisions also as the chart below shows. <img alt="Texas Revisions" src="http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Texas-Revisions1.png" width="655" height="437"/> The earlier revisions were smaller and there were some of […]

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How much faith can we put in our ability to decipher all the numbers out there telling us the US is closing in on its cornering of the global oil market? There’s another side to the story of the relentless US shale boom, one that says that some of the numbers are misunderstood, while others are simply preposterous. The truth of the matter is that the industry has to make such a big deal out of shale because it’s all that’s left. There are some good things happening behind the fairy tale numbers, though—it’s just a matter of deciphering them from a sober perspective.   In a second exclusive interview with James Stafford of  Oilprice.com , energy expert Arthur Berman discusses:   Why US gas supply growth rests solely on Marcellus When Bakken and Eagle Ford will peak The eyebrow-raising predictions for the Permian Basin Why outrageous claims should have […]

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How much faith can we put in our ability to decipher all the numbers out there telling us the United States is closing in on its cornering of the global oil market? There’s another side to the story of the relentless U.S. shale boom, one that says that some of the numbers are misunderstood, while others are simply preposterous. The truth of the matter is that the industry has to make such a big deal out of shale because it’s all that’s left. There are some good things happening behind the fairy tale numbers, though—it’s just a matter of deciphering them from a sober perspective. In a exclusive interview with James Stafford of Oilprice.com , energy expert Arthur Berman discusses:   Why US gas supply growth rests solely on Marcellus When Bakken and Eagle Ford will peak The eyebrow-raising predictions for the Permian Basin Why outrageous claims should have […]

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Page added on March 10, 2014 At the risk of starting a cat fight where truth may too quickly become a casualty, why don’t we more forcefully challenge those who deny peak oil (and global warming) and who do so for reasons that generally ignore reality in favor of narrowly-defined interests? Those motivations will ultimately do nothing but promote more eventual harm by denying the truths to those who clearly need them the most…. Of course, we run the risk of getting bogged down in he said/she-said arguments that quickly devolve into the lowest forms of ‘debate’, but why let those types of offerings go unchallenged? They feed on themselves, and it is tiresome and time-consuming to have to rebut all the nonsense. But if we don’t, uninformed readers and listeners have no reason to at least consider the possibility that there may indeed be other facts out there […]

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The Sydney Morning Herald published the following article 2 days after Qantas CEO Alan Joyce announced a 1 st half year loss of $252 million and job cuts of 5,000. Mayday: how Qantas went from national icon to corporate tragedy Qantas is a company of tribes at war with itself, and anyone who questions its strategy. It also is suffering from a case of the Boy Who Cried Wolf after so many years of warning that it was close to collapse unless the government bowed to its wishes. At one time, a phrase was coined by Dixon known as “constant-shock syndrome”. http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/mayday-how-qantas-went-from-national-icon-to-corporate-tragedy-20140228-33rax.html The SMH article describes how Chairman Leigh Clifford selected Alan Joyce as successor for CEO Geoff Dixon in May 2008. That was the month when oil prices were skyrocketing towards $130 a barrel as a result of extra demand from China for the Olympic Games. After 2 […]

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Page added on March 6, 2014 Russia’s invasion of the Crimea is a tipping point event that will further spur the North American oil boom.  The European Union (EU) and United Statesin 2008 threatened toslap economic sanctions on Russia for invading Georgia.  But after a while the criticism faded and sanctions threats were quietly dropped, because the EU is almost entirely reliant on Russia for energy supplies. A similar situation is unfolding today as the EU and U.S. are again making false threats they will to stop exports of Russian oil and gas as punishment for invading the Ukraine.  But due to the latest humiliation by the Russians, a consensus is emerging that will demand the United States and its North American partners “drill baby, drill” for national security. Twenty years ago on January 1st the United States, Mexico, and Canada implemented the North American Free Trade Agreement. The […]

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For years, meaning until the arrival of U.S. shale production, much ink was spilled on the concept of “peak oil” — the argument that the world was fast approaching an absolute maximum of crude oil that can be produced on a  daily basis. Shale production has put the kabosh on that for the time being, but there’s another “peak” to argue about, and it’s peak demand. Oil consumption in Western Europe, Japan and the United States has  been declining since about 2005. Have we hit “peak demand?” Not hardly, at least not worldwide, agreed three panelists at the ongoing IHS/CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. Demand from Asia and the developing world will more than offset declines in OECD nations, said the panelists, all refiners. Bill Klesse, CEO of San Antonio-based Valero Energy, said world crude oil demand can be expected to grow about 1 million barrels per year through 2025. […]

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An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Mark Lewis (links in original): Oil market commentators increasingly dismiss the very idea of supply-side constraints on the oil market, pointing to the recent surge in light-tight oil production from US shale deposits and the existence of vast shale formations elsewhere in the world…. But does this peak demand theory bear scrutiny? [F]rom data for 2013 released by the EIA recently, it is now clear that US demand not only increased last year, but accelerated rapidly over the course of the year. All of [the data reported by the author] implies that the reduction in US oil demand over 2008-12 was not so much structural as due mainly to the weakness of the US economy following the global financial crisis, and the tightness of the local oil market until recently. As the economy has started […]

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For years, meaning until the arrival of U.S. shale production, much ink was spilled on the concept of "peak oil" — the argument that the world was fast approaching an absolute maximum of crude oil that can be produced on a  daily basis. Shale production has put the kabosh on that for the time being, but there’s another "peak" to argue about, and it’s peak demand. Oil consumption in Western Europe, Japan and the United States has  been declining since about 2005. Have we hit "peak demand?" Not hardly, at least not worldwide, agreed three panelists at the ongoing IHS/CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. Demand from Asia and the developing world will more than offset declines in OECD nations, said the panelists, all refiners. Bill Klesse, CEO of San Antonio-based Valero Energy, said world crude oil demand can be expected to grow about 1 million barrels per year through 2025. […]

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Page added on March 3, 2014 Last week, I mused on the death of cars and big-picture factors working against the auto industry, including urbanization and declining driving rates in younger Americans. Now, I’ll trot out my crystal ball again and offer you another prediction: This is the beginning of the end for Big Oil, too. Now before you jump down my throat for trolling you again with hyperbole, I will state up front that I don’t expect Exxon Mobil XOM -1.01%  , BP BP -2.13%  and Chevron CVX -0.69%   to disappear tomorrow any more than I expect I-95 to start sprouting daisies. But as with the decline of automobile ownership — and in part because of it — we may also be witnessing a protracted decline in major energy stocks and fossil fuel demand. That’s bad for big oil, and bad for investors in these stocks. Efficiency […]

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Page added on March 3, 2014 The economic foundations supporting fossil fuels investments are collapsing quickly, as the business case for renewables such as solar and wind finds a new center of balance. I have waited a long time—decades, really—for a tipping point in the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables beyond which there can be no turning back. Fresh evidence pertaining to many themes I have explored in this column over the past three years suggests that tipping point is finally here. Oil and gas Underlying the abundance hype over tight oil, tar sands and other “unconventional” sources of liquid fuel has been a dirty little secret: They’re expensive. The soaring cost of producing oil has far outpaced the rise in oil prices as the world has relied on these marginal sources to keep production growing since conventional oil production peaked in 2005. Those who ignored the […]

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Earth insight badge A pro-European protester swings a metal chain during riots in Kiev A protester in Ukraine swings a metal chain during clashes – a taste of things to come? Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters If anyone had hoped that the Arab Spring and Occupy protests a few years back were one-off episodes that would soon give way to more stability, they have another thing coming. The hope was that ongoing economic recovery would return to pre-crash levels of growth, alleviating the grievances fueling the fires of civil unrest, stoked by years of recession. But this hasn’t happened. And it won’t . Instead the post-2008 crash era, including 2013 and early 2014, has seen a persistence and proliferation of civil unrest on a scale that has never been seen before in human history. This month alone has seen riots kick-off in Venezuela , Bosnia , Ukraine , Iceland , and […]

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We’ve all heard a lot about Peak Oil, the point at which global oil production begins to decline because the accessible supply is simply not as big as it was the year before. Whether it has been passed or is looming in the near future, is still being debated, especially in the light of the recent boom in U.S. production. But it is highly likely that it is imminent, which is really a good thing, given the carbon emissions entailed, which has not been reason enough for many people, institutions and governments to press for alternatives. But what about all of those cars and trucks that most of that oil goes into? There are a number of analysts who think that, despite the optimistic sales projections of automakers, we may be approaching the point of peak cars. Given the fact that more and […]

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We’ve all heard a lot about Peak Oil, the point at which global oil production begins to decline because the accessible supply is simply not as big as it was the year before. Whether it has been passed or is looming in the near future, is still being debated, especially in the light of the recent boom in U.S. production. But it is highly likely that it is imminent, which is really a good thing, given the carbon emissions entailed, which has not been reason enough for many people, institutions and governments to press for alternatives. But what about all of those cars and trucks that most of that oil goes into? There are a number of analysts who think that, despite the optimistic sales projections of automakers, we may be approaching the point of peak cars. Given the fact that more and […]

Click here to view full article at 3blmedia.com

As our civilization proceeds down the slope of the post-peak-oil curve, global trade will become more and more expensive, so our economies will naturally localize. The energy-efficiency benefits of localized economies are obvious to us, but there are also social and even psycho-social benefits that aren’t often contemplated. I had the good fortune to work with respected crowd-behavior expert Alan Berkowitz several years ago on a film project about “bystander behavior.” Berkowitz is a psychologist and sociologist who advises, writes, and speaks on bystander behavior, as well as a number of other health and social justice subjects. He founded and edited the Report on Social Norms . I later interviewed him for my documentary, GrowthBusters: Hooked on Growth . I was curious about why human beings react so irrationally to evidence we are harming our planet and the life support systems on which […]

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Pulitzer prize-winning author and energy analyst Daniel Yergin kicked off the 2014 MIT Energy Conference Friday by looking back at big changes in the energy landscape since the conference launched in 2006—and ahead at three visions for the future of energy. Dr. Yergin, Vice President of IHS and author of two bestselling books on the history of energy, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, said much has changed over the last decade in the energy world. From “Peak Oil” to Energy Abundance? “It was the year of Peak Oil,” Yergin said, looking back at 2005, when the MIT Energy Initiative was launched and the first MIT Energy Conference conceived. America and the world were concerned about rising global oil demand […]

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