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Inexpensive oil vanishing at alarming rate Add to …

The United States is awash in shale oil. Iran, once OPEC’s second-largest producer, is slowly ramping up output. Oil consumption growth in the Western world has been somewhere between negative and flat since the 2008 financial crisis. The “peak oil” theory has pretty much vanished, along with The Oil Drum, the bible of peak oil believers. Rest in peace. TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline. Or turn in your grave, for the oil price charts tell a different story. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures are up 13 per cent over one year. Since 2009, they have climbed every year except 2012. In Europe, the Brent crude futures are flat over the year after rising three years on the trot. Brent, the de facto global benchmark, trades at about $108 (U.S.) a barrel; West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, is at $97. For the sake of […]

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Peak Car? We’re Not Even Close

Page added on December 12, 2013 The term “peak oil” has been around for decades, referring to when domestic oil production in America would peak. The jury is still out on peak oil, though the latest term to go around is “peak car”, with some studies indicating that the American car market is over saturated, and shrinking. But on a global scale, we’re not even close to reaching peak car. From 2006 to 2011, miles driven by Americans fell in three-quarters of urbanized areas where recent data was available. That’s quite specific, and also includes four of the five toughest economic years since the Great Depression. This data definitely screams out “selection bias!” to me, as high unemployment and stagnant wages means less reasons and less money for, you know, driving. While the study claims the economy has little to no impact on driving, again, by focusing only on […]

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OPEC Update, November Production Data

OPEC just published their latest  Monthly Oil Market Report  with crude only production data through November 2013. Their October numbers were revised downward by 67,000 barrels per day to 29,827 kb/d. Their November production was 29,633 /b/d. That was 261 kb/d below their unrevised October production and 194 kb/d below their revised October production numbers. OPEC production at 29,633,000 bp/d is at their lowest point since June 2011. As you can see from the chart OPEC has hat two peaks since 2005. Actually these are the two highest peaks ever for OPEC if the EIA data is correct. I only have MOMR data going back to January 2005. The July 2008 peak was 31,672,000 bp/d and the April 12 peak was 31,619,000 bp/d. I thought it might be interesting to plot who was up and who was down since those two peaks. The […]

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6 ways to become more miserable about climate change and peak oil

Page added on December 11, 2013 It’s bad enough that most middle-class people still have to struggle to keep their jobs and homes in today’s Second Great Depression. But if you’re even a little bit awake, then you also have to worry about longer-term threats: climate change, Fukushima, peak oil and the impending collapse of industrial civilization. There’s plenty of reason for anyone to be depressed these days. Yet, somehow, some people still manage to keep calm and carry on. So, for the ordinary person who thinks that happiness is for dopes and who needs a little help finding their way to the bottom, therapist Cloe Madanes offers “14 Habits of Highly Miserable People.” Here, for those who are energy- and climate-aware, I offer my own adaptation of Madanes’s six top points to succeed at self-sabotage: Be afraid, be very afraid, of economic loss. If you know that fiat […]

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The future of oil supply

Page added on December 11, 2013 Were they crying “Wolf”? Concerns about “peak oil” have recurred repeatedly since the resource was first developed, but they reached an unprecedented height in 2007 just prior to the global economic recession. Since then public concern has diminished, partly as a result of shale oil production in the United States. Yet, despite these developments and globally rising reserves, oil prices have almost doubled since 2010 and have tripled in a decade. The ‘peak oil’ debate has not gone away – oil remains critically important, adequate substitutes have yet to be found and concerns about depletion persist. This volume presents the best scientific evidence on why a decline in oil supply may, or may not, be in sight. It considers the production and resources of conventional oil and the potential for developing alternative liquid fuels from tar sands, shales, biomass, coal and gas. It […]

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Peak oil action plan cuts risk in Meander Valley

The Meander Valley Council is implementing the first Local Government Peak Oil Action Plan in Tasmania. The Council has ratified its oil risk action plan, and the report is being picked up as a template by other local government councils in the state. Meander Valley mayor, Craig Perkins says the blueprint identifies opportunities for the Council, local businesses and communities to take action to reduce exposure to rising fuel costs. Craig Perkins says the valley’s dispersed rural communities and businesses and some Council services are very vulnerable to changes in the price and availability of fuel. “There are different views in the community about where oil vulnerability goes, or doesn’t go. “But one thing we do know is that if the price of oil continues to rise that poses risks for us as a council and risks for the community […]

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Now the world needs new energy systems

On December 9th, the day before the Nobel Prizes are handled out in Stockholm, there is a “Nobel Week Dialogue” in Gothenburg. This year’s theme is “Exploring the Future of Energy” and participating Nobel Laureates are presented by the organizers. My contribution to the dialogue is now published by Svenska Dagbladet on “Brännpunkt” under the heading “Now we need new energy systems” ( Read the article in Swedish on Brännpunkt ). An English translation of the debate article can be found below. Now the world needs new energy systems Kjell Aleklett, Professor University of Texas at Austin and Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems NASA has just released a new image showing lights on the Earth’s surface at night. If one zooms in on Texas in the image it is easy to identify the cities of Austin, San Antonio and Houston. South of San […]

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Oil industry R&D deactivates ‘peak’

Many energy observers believe that the global Petroleum Engineering Industry had successfully managed deactivating the famous Peak Oil theory through developing new advanced technologies that resulted in significant additional reserves as a result of the exponential increase in the Research and Development (R&D) investment in the last decade as compared to the last century. The Peak Oil theory attracted media headlines at the beginning of this century through the book “Twilight in the Desert: Shock Saudi Oil and the Global Economy”  written by the famous banker Matthew Simon, who died few years ago. The exponential increase in the R&D investment by national, international and service oil companies generated several new advanced technologies that helped the oil industry discover more oil and gas fields and increase the recovery factor from existing and new discovered fields to reach a level that was never thought of in the past. Indeed, it was […]

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Oil industry R&D deactivates ‘peak’

Many energy observers believe that the global Petroleum Engineering Industry had successfully managed deactivating the famous Peak Oil theory through developing new advanced technologies that resulted in significant additional reserves as a result of the exponential increase in the Research and Development (R&D) investment in the last decade as compared to the last century. The Peak Oil theory attracted media headlines at the beginning of this century through the book “Twilight in the Desert: Shock Saudi Oil and the Global Economy”  written by the famous banker Matthew Simon, who died few years ago. The exponential increase in the R&D investment by national, international and service oil companies generated several new advanced technologies that helped the oil industry discover more oil and gas fields and increase the recovery factor from existing and new discovered fields to reach a level that was never thought of in the past. Indeed, it was […]

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Collapse: The Post-peak Narrative

Page added on December 6, 2013 A consensus appears to have been reached that the world’s production of conventional oil peaked in recent years. And to many observers, it means that from this time forward the supply of oil and natural gas, along with peaking coal and uranium, will decrease toward zero, leaving global Industrial Culture without the precious energy that made that culture possible. With such a precipitous future awaiting the Industrial Tribe, it is curious that one does not hear much about declining energy supplies in the mainstream media. Instead, we are bombarded daily with the “Industrial Progressive Narrative” (Princen et al , 2013), a comforting meme that portrays society as having ever-more energy resources that will drive never-ending growth into the future: “This month Continental Resources told investors that the [Bakken Formation] contains enough recoverable oil to double the official count of U.S. reserves and enough […]

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Noam Chomsky on Peak Oil

Page added on December 6, 2013 Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. Global production of oil fell from a high point in 2005 at 74 mb/d, but has since rebounded setting new records in both 2011 and 2012. There is active debate as to when global peak oil will occur, how to measure peak oil, and whether peak oil production will be supply or demand driven. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to sometimes be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and similarly to the global rate of petroleum production. However, the discovery […]

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Transition Town: A Tonic for the Peak Oil Blues

The term “Peak oil” warns of the end of cheap and plentiful energy. An expanding world population of 6.5 billion suggests a limit for growth will eventually be reached (if it hasn’t been already) and no combination of current alternative energy sources will sustain the world’s accelerating thirst for power. As oil production inevitably declines and resources become scarce, the world faces a turbulent descent. We depend on a globalized economy that is completely reliant on ready supplies of this non-renweable resource. But envisioning a life without the luxuries afforded by abundant oil can quickly lead one to denial. It’s much easier to absolve our responsibility to some higher authority – the government, the oil companies, technology, God. The exact tipping point in world oil production cannot be plotted exactly until a clear decline can be seen, by which time it will be too late. Experts analyzing this situation […]

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EIA’s World Oil Exports

Jeffery Brown is our Export Land expert and I would never try to match wits with him on world exports. And congratulations to Jeffery for having the Number one post on Resilience.Org. Top 10 Reader’s Favorites – Resilience and Energy Bulletin 1. Peak oil versus peak exports by Jeffrey J. Brown, Samuel Foucher PhD, originally published by ASPO-USA – Oct 2010 All I can do is post the data the EIA, or someone else supplies. And the EIA only has world export data through 2010. But I found even that pretty startling, especially the Non-OPEC data. Anyway here is the World Crude + Condensate exports, 1986 through 2010 in thousand barrels per day. Notice how the increase in World exports go up almost linear. Actually between 1986 and 2010 the increase averaged 3.41 percent per year for 18 years. But for the last seven years world exports have declined by […]

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Daniel Yergin: Power in 2030 The Roads We May Take

Page added on December 4, 2013 There is no question that we are at a turning point in world energy. But then we are often at a turning point. Just as everybody gets comfortable with what they expect to happen, a big change comes along that undercuts existing assumptions. Just consider: • Less than three years ago, a ‘‘nuclear renaissance’’ seemed to be unfolding. Now, in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the renaissance has turned into a ‘‘nuclear patchwork’’  —  moving ahead in some countries, stalled or shut down in others. • Five years ago, the United States was suffering an advanced case of ‘‘peak oil’’ and was going to run out of petroleum. Since then, crude oil output has increased by 56 percent and its net oil imports are down 40 percent. • Four years ago, the cost of solar panels seemed stubbornly high. […]

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Peak Oil as Wishful Thinking

By  Tom Athanasiou – Tom Athanasiou is the director of the Earth Island-sponsored project EcoEquity and a member of the Greenhouse Development Rights authors’ group. His interests focus on distributive justice within the global environmental emergency. Is our civilization doomed? I don’t think so, though I’ll admit that the case for doom is a pretty good one. But I wish to be clear on two points. First, it’s not too late to avoid disastrous climate change. We’re in trouble, no doubt about that, but we have the science, the technology, and the money to save ourselves. Second, we simply won’t do so if we give ourselves up to the habits of pessimism. Is “peak oil” a good way to talk about all this? The short answer is No , and this despite the fact that it draws attention to planetary limits, and to the great resource crunch that’s now […]

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Peak Oil Denial: Nonsense Keeps Rolling Along

Page added on December 2, 2013 [D]enial strategies suppress both facts and emotions, maladaptive coping strategies admit some of the facts and allow some of the emotions, both often in distorted form, and adaptive coping strategies accept the facts and allow the emotions to be felt, thus promoting more positive behaviours. The three groups of coping strategies may be considered to be sequential in the sense that moving from the first to the second and the second to the third requires that obstacles be overcome…. Some people who use denial strategies are likely to remain ‘stuck’ there regardless of the evidence. (links/references in the original quote) [1] Those comments were written as part of a study on climate change denial, but their application is easily and accurately extended to peak oil denial and any number of political issues where too many prefer avoiding contemplation of the consequences of ideological […]

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UMD researchers address economic dangers of ‘peak oil’

Team identifies key industries for policy action Researchers from the University of Maryland and a leading university in Spain demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (‘Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors. While critics of Peak Oil studies declare that the world has more than enough oil to maintain current national and global standards, these UMD-led researchers say Peak Oil is imminent, if not already here — and is a real threat to national and global economies. Their study is among the first to outline a way of assessing the vulnerabilities of specific economic sectors to this threat, and to identify focal points for action that could strengthen the U.S. economy and make it less vulnerable to disasters. Their work, “Economic […]

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JODI, Canada and the IEA’s Position On Peak Oil

The JODI data came out a few days ago. Below is JODI World Total C+C with EIA data used for countries not reporting to JODI. I use EIA data also for Venezuela and Iran because JODI uses data reported by these two countries which is political and inflated by about one million barrels per day by Iran and half a million barrels a day by Venezuela. The data is in kb/d with the last data point September 2013. Notice that JODI has a new world high in July just like the EIA had but down 976,000 barrels per day from July to to September. JODI has Non-OPEC at about 350,000 barrels below the peak in December 2012. I don’t put much stock in the JODI data but I do find it interesting look at occasionally. And since it is usually almost two months […]

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Iran sanctions deal to unleash oil supply but Saudi wild card looms

Khaled al Otaiby, an official of the Saudi oil company Aramco watches progress at a rig at the al-Howta oil field near Howta, Saudi Arabia The bank said falling energy prices could mark the death of the commodity supercycle, already struggling as China shifts to a new phase of “smart urbanisation”. Alastair Newton from Nomura said the “geopolitical risk” premium in the oil price should fall but there will be no immediate softening of the oil embargo, adding that talks could still break down over Iran’s heavy water reactor at Arak. America’s rapprochement with Tehran is a dramatic upset in the region’s alliance system at a time when Shia Muslims led by Iran are locked in an epic struggle for Mid-East dominance with a Saudi-led bloc of Sunni regimes. Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, said the great unknown is how Saudi Arabia will react to a move deemed […]

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As Marcellus Shale loses momentum, a reassessment

But local civic and business leaders insist the shale-gas industry has not gone bust. They say that it has merely taken a breather, and that all signs point to a long-term boost for this region. “We’ve said all along there’s going to be ebbs and flows to this,” said Williamsport Mayor Gabriel J. Campana, an unabashed gas-industry booster. “There’s a real optimism here.” “I think the hype is what changed,” said Davie Jane Gilmour, president of the Pennsylvania College of Technology. The school has trained 3,400 students as welders, rig hands, commercial truck drivers, […]

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US shale boom causing slowdown in LNG industry

Asian buyers’ reluctance to sign the long-term contracts that have traditionally underpinned big liquefied natural gas projects is causing a sharp slowdown in the LNG industry worldwide. A key reason for the standstill is the North American shale gas boom , which promises a cheaper alternative to existing supplies. Amid the uncertainty, LNG developments from east Africa to Canada are being held up, raising fears of a future shortage that could push up global gas prices. Philippe Sauquet, director of gas and power at Total , says buyers and sellers cannot agree on price. “A lot of projects today are still on the shelf because they have not succeeded in interesting long-term buyers,” he told the Financial Times. “Clearly there is a risk [they] won’t get built.” Asian buyers are showing a keen interest in potential exports of US shale gas, because it is indexed to Henry Hub, the […]

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No one wants Russia to implode but optimists have their work cut out

No one wants Russia to implode but optimists have their work cut out For the state of Russia’s economy is parlous. A couple of weeks ago, the Russian ministry of economy slashed its forecast for average annual growth between now and 2030 from 4pc to 2.5pc. In fact, Russia’s economy has recently been extremely weak. It fell into technical recession in the first half of the year and it looks likely to post growth of only about 1pc this year, down from an average over the past decade of just under 5pc. Russia’s previously strong growth earned her inclusion in the group of countries known as the BRICs. In fact, this gave a misleading impression of Russia’s underlying dynamism. Russia’s strong past growth reflected a series of one-off factors which cannot be repeated. Most importantly, over the past 10 years, higher oil prices have increased Russia’s export earnings, and […]

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New report: jobs from shale gas development greatly exaggerated by industry

There’s a new report out from the  Multi-State Shale Research Collaborative , which consists of independent, nonpartisan research and policy organizations in New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia that monitor employment trends, tax policy, economic development, and the community impacts of energy extraction in the Marcellus and Utica Shale region. The Collaborative has an advisory committee of academic experts. The new report is entitled: Exaggerating the Employment Impacts of Shale Drilling : How and Why . It contains a lot of great data and important analysis. Among the key findings: Between 2005 and 2012, an estimated 3.7 jobs were created for every well […]

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Apache cuts freshwater use in Permian fracking

In Irion County, where Apache is probing for the Wolfcamp shale, the company is tapping the Santa Rosa formation for brackish water supplies that lie between 600 and 800 feet below ground in this part of the Permian, just below freshwater aquifers. The brackish water complements existing efforts to treat and recycle flowback and produced water. “We’re not using freshwater out here,” Lucian Wray, production manager for Apache’s South Permian region, said of the company’s Barnhart operating area. “We are recycling 100% of our produced water. We don’t dispose of any of it,” he told Reuters. The tactic is saving Apache money in trucking and disposal costs. Water costs alone can eat up around 10% of a well’s budget, according to IHS CERA. Apache says it costs about 29 cents per barrel to treat flowback water, an enormous discount to the roughly $2.50 per barrel it costs to dispose […]

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Shale gas’s next frontier could be Poland

Shale gas, the energy source which has shaken up world oil markets, could soon be flowing in Poland after changes in government policy. Shale gas drilling has a chequered history in Poland. International oil giant Exxon Mobil tried to extract the controversial energy source in the country and gave up in 2012. Instead, Poland’s first shale gas extraction will start within months, or even weeks, according to Dennis McKee, chief executive of United Oilfield Services, which is providing equipment for shale gas exploration in Poland. ( Read more: Poland: A tough sell for investors? ) “The climate is changing quickly at this point, and there are more wells this year than in the last five years,” he told CNBC. “Government plans have changed, making it easier to develop.” Shale gas, the energy source which has shaken up world oil markets, could soon be flowing in Poland after changes in […]

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The shale game, & Shilling for dollars

Posted: Friday, November 22, 2013, 12:16 AM Likewise, as the American economy got crushed by no-longer-cheap oil, all the working classes in this country below the one-percenters got crushed, hammered and trashed. Among other things they can no longer afford is gasoline. Total vehicle miles driven has gone down by almost 3 percent since 2007. It will keep going down, and the Happy Motoring matrix will collapse for another reason: Capital scarcity will translate into fewer available car loans for Americans and fewer qualified borrowers, and Americans are used to buying their cars on installment loans. The shale-gas situation is also not the “energy savior” it’s cracked up to be. Because it costs so much to export the stuff, and we don’t have the export infrastructure in place – ocean terminals, fleets of special (expensive!) tanker ships – shale gas is hostage to the U.S. domestic market. The initial […]

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The shale game, & Shilling for dollars

Posted: Friday, November 22, 2013, 12:16 AM Likewise, as the American economy got crushed by no-longer-cheap oil, all the working classes in this country below the one-percenters got crushed, hammered and trashed. Among other things they can no longer afford is gasoline. Total vehicle miles driven has gone down by almost 3 percent since 2007. It will keep going down, and the Happy Motoring matrix will collapse for another reason: Capital scarcity will translate into fewer available car loans for Americans and fewer qualified borrowers, and Americans are used to buying their cars on installment loans. The shale-gas situation is also not the “energy savior” it’s cracked up to be. Because it costs so much to export the stuff, and we don’t have the export infrastructure in place – ocean terminals, fleets of special (expensive!) tanker ships – shale gas is hostage to the U.S. domestic market. The initial […]

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Supermajors ‘worst climate offenders’

The findings of the study by the US-based Climate Accountability Institute reveal the 90 companies have between them generated nearly two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. They are said to have been responsible for 63% of cumulative emissions between 1751 and 2010, amounting to about 914 gigatonnes of CO2 out of a total of about 1450 gigatonnes, according to the newly published report. The list of climate offenders includes 50 investor-owned companies, mainly oil supermajors, as well as 31 state-owned companies such as Statoil, Saudi Aramco and Russia’s Gazprom. ChevronTexaco was the leading emitter among investor-owned companies, causing 3.5% of greenhouse gas emissions, with ExxonMobil not far behind at 3.2%. In third place, BP has caused 2.5% of global emissions, while Statoil was ranked as the 34th largest emitter on the overall list of 90 companies. Nearly 30% of emissions were produced by […]

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Supermajors 'worst climate offenders'

The findings of the study by the US-based Climate Accountability Institute reveal the 90 companies have between them generated nearly two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. They are said to have been responsible for 63% of cumulative emissions between 1751 and 2010, amounting to about 914 gigatonnes of CO2 out of a total of about 1450 gigatonnes, according to the newly published report. The list of climate offenders includes 50 investor-owned companies, mainly oil supermajors, as well as 31 state-owned companies such as Statoil, Saudi Aramco and Russia’s Gazprom. ChevronTexaco was the leading emitter among investor-owned companies, causing 3.5% of greenhouse gas emissions, with ExxonMobil not far behind at 3.2%. In third place, BP has caused 2.5% of global emissions, while Statoil was ranked as the 34th largest emitter on the overall list of 90 companies. Nearly 30% of emissions were produced by […]

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Blackstone’s Version of Peak Oil

A $6 billion oil deal signals yet another apex for the Blackstone Group. The sale of private equity-backed GeoSouthern Energy to Devon Energy comes at a high price by one important measure. Blackstone, one of GeoSouthern’s owners, also has an uncanny knack for timing. The glut of undeveloped land owned by oil companies suggests finding buyers will get tougher. Devon can justify the purchase price to its own shareholders, who roundly embraced the deal, using one metric. It is paying just 2.5 times projected 2015 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for GeoSouthern’s assets in the Texas-based Eagle Ford shale formation. Peers like Rosetta Resources are trading at a multiple of four. At $135,000 an acre, however, Devon shelled out about six times more than Marathon Oil paid two years ago to buy land in the same area from KKR and Hilcorp Resources. What’s more, Blackstone got in […]

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Pipeline

Pipeline is a forum for readers to comment on news articles and exchange information on relevant topics. To post a comment, please login or create an account on the Disqus Continue Reading

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Gulf Crude Strengthens as China Economy Boosts Foreign Demand

Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude strengthened the most in more than three weeks as China ’s growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters, indicating stronger demand for waterborne oils. Heavy Louisiana Sweet’s premium to West Texas Intermediate rose $1.30 to a premium of $2.10 a barrel at 4:03 p.m., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It would be the largest gain since Sept. 25. Gulf crudes including Heavy Louisiana Sweet compete with foreign oils priced against European benchmark Brent for space in U.S. refineries. Brent’s premium over WTI rose as high as $9.04 a barrel today, the highest intraday level since Oct. 14. Gross domestic product in China, the world’s largest oil-importing nation, rose 7.8 percent in the July-September period from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. It’s the first time growth has accelerated in three quarters. The growth indicated higher demand […]

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