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Peak Oil: Still The Problem And Not The Answer

General Ideas While all the buzz surrounds oil prices, the global demand side remains on solid footing: up. Supplying 33% of all energy, oil is the world’s primary fuel. Oil is so important that global demand is ever-growing: 67 million b/d in 1990, 77 million b/d in 2000, and 91 million b/d in 2014. I’ll never understand the animosity of some Westerners toward critical fuels that they depend on everyday, making their lives easier in ways their great grandparents only dreamed of. [1] “Animosity” directed to fossil fuels? Has a nice right-wing playbook buzz to it, but those of us concerned with facts have an annoying habit of insisting that all of them be considered, and that consequences must also find a place at the table where overly-broad statements otherwise prefer being alone. And how exactly does one direct animus toward an energy source which has indeed made it […]

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Yergin: Why the oil-price collapse changes everything

General Ideas It was not long ago that $100 per barrel oil was accepted as the new normal. China’s strong economic growth (and energy demand) would continue apace, and OPEC and Saudi Arabia would continue to play the traditional role as swing producer in support of oil prices. Events have proved otherwise. Oil markets have entered a new period. Now it is supply, not demand, which is the key the factor, making not-so-distant discussions of “peak oil” seem very far gone. China’s economy, while still growing, has slowed. And by leaving oil prices to the market, OPEC has effectively ceded the role of de facto swing producer to a country that hardly expected it—the United States. Markets never cease in their ability to upend current expectations and confound established thinking. That is certainly the case for the world of energy in a year that has seen the rapid creation […]

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What Happens To US Shale When The Easy Money Runs Out?

Today we will take a look at both Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and Continental Resources (CLR) as far as their Bakken economics. Overall the numbers will show that, despite claims of low cash costs per MBOE ($16 or so for CLR) and high IRRs on $60 WTI, the facts say otherwise. In addition, the analysis will show how very high depletion rates combined with falling rig counts spells trouble for Bakken production growth despite better efficiencies per well. The analysis will be based on April presentations of both companies from which the graphs below are taken. I should note these economics are not much different from Eagle Ford, the second most prolific addition to US production growth in past years. Firstly one must understand that the easy money via QE from the Fed and zero interest rates allowed many shale players to burn free cash flow while showing operationally net […]

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Peak Oil, Ten or So Years On

This blog began seven years and almost a thousand posts ago, and I thought it a good time to take stock. Since the blog itself was inspired by the “peak oil” movement, and since it’s been ten years, by some measures, since the peak, I wanted to assess the state of that community as well. First the personal notes: Many of my posts are reprints of my columns for our local newspaper, or for Grit and Mother Earth News magazines, short and focused on gardening and crafts. I’d like to write longer articles about broader subjects as well, however, as I have for American Conservative or Low-Tech Magazine, so I’m cutting back to twice a week – one new article every weekend, and one reprint or photo mid-week. There’s a great deal to write about, you see, and too little time. We have three generations of family living in […]

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Feed Yourself

Five percent of the world’s oil tanker capacity is waiting to load up near Basra Iraq, where production is way up. The United States has only one month of oil storage capacity left. After that, what comes in must go straight to market, likely for as little as $20 a barrel. Is peak oil dead?  And why isn’t the economy responding to cheaper oil? We’ll ask the guru, Richard Heinberg. He’s one of the people who popularized the oil squeeze, with his book "The Party’s Over". Heinberg has a new book out  Afterburn: Society Beyond Fossil Fuels . After that, during this Spring in the Northern Hemisphere, a couple of us hope to persuade you to grow some of your own food. Marjory Wildcraft, from  growyourowngroceries  joins us. There’s a lot of reasons we need to pay attention to the food supply.

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This Is What Will Determine If Oil Prices Go Up Or Down

This article  was written by Oilprice.com, the leading provider of energy news in the world. Check out these other articles. Earthquake Case Could Doom Fracking In Oklahoma Saudi Influence On Oil Markets Slipping It appears as if oil prices could be on the verge of a rebound, with new data showing that the U.S. oil patch is hitting an inflection point. While specific shale regions — such as  North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford  — have posted production declines, overall U.S. oil output managed to edge up in recent months. But now that U.S. production has finally dipped, it may augur a new phase for oil markets in which production cutbacks could lead to higher prices. The Energy Information Administration  reported  on April 1 that total U.S. oil production fell for the week ending on March 27, falling 36,000 barrels per day to 9.38 million barrels per day. […]

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Supply or Demand? Peak Oil with Richard Heinberg and James Hamilton

3 Comments on "Supply or Demand? Peak Oil with Richard Heinberg and James Hamilton" Davy on Sat, 28th Mar 2015 10:10 am  Why don’t these academic greenie weennies divest out of the car culture and show real backbone? Why don’t they admit that no matter how much they want to have their cake and eat it there are no free lunches? Why don’t they admit or try to understand that BAU is carbon and without carbon there is no BAU. Then while they are at it admit without BAU there is no Stanford. This is just another greenie joke of feel-goodism that will go nowhere. If you want to change things then lobby government to restrict liquid fuels enough to put the economy in a tailspin so we can begin the power down that will involve huge changes to bad attitudes, lifestyles, and economic activity. This power down will […]

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Why Oil Could Be Facing A 20-Year Bear Market

In the past, the usual “oil crisis” was caused by self-serving news items of an oil shortage, causing soaring prices. Just 2-3 years ago, the fear mongers said that the world had “seen peak oil,” meaning that oil production would be on a long term decline and there would be big shortages. Instead, oil production is now at a high The current crisis is one of plunging oil prices and a glut as far as the eye can see. Oil production, after prices have fallen over 60%, is at a new high. As we predicted late last year, oil producers are making up for plummeting income by pumping even more. Rig counts in production are plunging, but these are from the low production wells. The high producers are still pumping away. In fact, the latest rig count even shows that there is little additional reduction in producing rigs. The […]

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The Problem of the Human Population

However, there is concern for decades that in a finite world at some point should be the limits of the world’s population, and that may not be very smart to reach those limits. Although efforts to limit population growth in some countries like India or China, today these efforts have been abandoned or are abandoning were made in the second half of the twentieth century, mainly due to the pace of population growth is declining alone globally. As in all matters based on the laws of nature, we can use science to analyze the problem of the human population. The science that helps us in this case is ecology, which has a specific branch of human ecology . Anyone who thinks that we do not apply the laws of biology, is that it has lost touch with the reality of human nature. For very rational to presume to be, […]

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Heinberg: AFTERBURN Society Beyond Fossil Fuels

Heinberg: AFTERBURN Society Beyond Fossil Fuels thumbnail The advent of fossil fuels changed the world profoundly (giving us everything from plastics and automobiles to global warming); the inevitable and rapidly approaching end of the oil-coal-and-gas era will likewise bring overwhelming transformation in its wake. My new book Afterburn explores that transformation—its opportunities and challenges—in sixteen essays that address subjects as varied as energy politics, consumerism, localism, the importance of libraries, and oil price volatility. Afterburn is a book of “greatest hits”—that is, popular essays that have been previously published—similar in that respect to an earlier book of mine, Peak Everything (2007). Like that previous collection, this one has been carefully selected and arranged, and features an all-new Introduction. Here are just a few of the highlights: “Ten Years After” reviews the debate about “peak oil” from the perspective of over a decade’s work in tracking petroleum forecasts, prices, and […]

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