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Nigeria Without Oil is Now a Reality

opinion "Unsold Nigeria crude grows as buyer interest falls". PUNCH, Thursday, April 9, 2015, p 41. The story by Femi Asu, went on to state that "Weak buying from Asia and other regular buyers of Nigerian crude oil has left a large overhang of March, April and May cargoes, it was learnt". For those who might not fully understand the implications of that report, it is necessary to spell them out. The first casualty, and it has been in that position since last year, is the 2015 budget which is now nothing more than an academic exercise. With crude oil prices hovering between US$45 and US$60 per barrel, the budget which out-going Finance Minister first based on $78 per barrel crude oil price, had by February been dropped in the dust bin. Now, with volume supplied imperiled by weak demand from our traditional customers, it is obvious that the […]

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Nigeria: Crude Oil Production to Rise By Less Than 0.1MBPD in 2015

OPEC non-crude liquids production, which averaged 6.4 million bpd in 2014, is expected to increase by less than 0.1 million bpd in both 2015 and 2016, led by increases in Qatar and Kuwait. In February 2015, unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged 2.7 million bpd, an increase of 0.1 million bpd compared with the previous month. According to U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA), this increase was mainly attributable to rising outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and Libya. It noted that unplanned OPEC crude supply disruptions averaged 2.4 million bpd in 2014, 0.5 million bpd higher than in the previous year. The high level of OPEC disruptions contributed to higher crude oil prices during the first half of 2014. It stated that unplanned supply disruptions could still affect crude oil prices, but the threshold that the market can bear has risen in light of robust global production and […]

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Nigeria: Militants Blow Up Pipelines in Delta

Fire incident on the pipeline network of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in Ijegun area of Lagos State. An Urhobo militant group, Urhobo Gbagbako, on Friday claimed responsibility for Thursday night’s bombing of the NPDC Oil pipelines at Ighrenene, Afiesere and Ekiugbo communities in Delta State. The group, which made the claims in an email sent to some reporters, said it is also planning to shut down all the oil fields in Urhobo and Isoko areas. The email signed by the group’s s spokesperson, Priest Omodjuvwu, said the bombing of the Ekiugbo/Ighrenene/Afiesere was to draw attention to the neglect of ex-militants of Urhobo extraction. It said the Urhobo had been sidelined in the pipelines protection contracts offered to ex-militants from other ethnic groups and they now want to show that they too had the capacity to cause trouble if ignored. The group said it had sent warning signals […]

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Nigeria: What Oil Industry Expects From Buhari’s Presidency

THE incoming government of Major General Mohammadu Buhari (rtd) should ensure speedy passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), revival of ailing refineries, adoption of zero tolerance on corruption, business friendly electricity tariff and deregulation of the down stream sector of the oil and gas industry. These were the demand list of stakeholders in the oil industry such as the former President of Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) and the President/Managing Director of Danvic Petroleum International, Dr. Mayowa Afe; President, Nigeria-Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Prince Oye Akinsemoyin, and the Executive-Secretary of the Lubricant Producers Association of Nigeria (LUPAN), Emeka Obidike. Speaking with The Guardian yesterday, Afe commended the just concluded 2015 elections, saying that the latest development has already started opening doors for investment in the oil and gas sector. According to Afe, what has happened has opened up a lot of enthusiasms among foreign partners […]

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‘Change’ unseated Nigeria’s president, but may be slow in coming

ABUJA, Nigeria — Muhammadu Buhari won an upset victory over Nigeria president Goodluck Jonathan this week using a catchphrase that’s familiar to anyone who’s paid attention to American politics over the past eight years: “change.” Buhari leveraged the same slogan used to much success by Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign to unseat Jonathan and his ruling People’s Democratic Party, which has had its candidates occupy the presidency since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999. The change Buhari promised was an end to the Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands of Nigerians and forced over a million to flee. He campaigned on a reputation as an anti-corruption crusader, and made populist pledges such as stipends for poor people and health care for all. Jonathan campaigned on the motto of continuity for his “Transformation Agenda,” saying the growth Nigeria enjoyed during his first elected term — during which the country […]

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Nigeria: Shell Is Rumored To Have Shut Down Flow Stations

According to unnamed community sources, Shell Petroleum Development Company has closed its flow stations in Nigeria’s Delta and Bayelsa states because of threats from militants, The Nation Online reported April 3. Shell has denied operation interference, but not commented on reports of threat, saying it does not discuss security issues. Militants are suspected to have threatened to attack flow stations following Goodluck Jonathan’s loss in the 2015 presidential election . Stratfor provides global awareness and guidance to individuals, governments and businesses around the world. We use a unique, intel-based approach to analyze world affairs. Copyright © 2015 Stratfor Global Intelligence, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: 221 West 6th Street Suite 400 – Austin, TX 78701, USA unsubscribe from this list     update subscription preferences | forward email

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Nigerian President-Elect Muhammadu Buhari Sets Out His Agenda

Photo In Kano on Wednesday, the victory of Muhammadu Buhari made for news and commerce. It was Nigeria’s first peaceful transition at the ballot box. Credit Samuel Aranda for The New York Times KANO, Nigeria — Nigeria ’s president-elect, Muhammadu Buhari, did not smile while making his acceptance speech on Wednesday — understandably, as terrorism and corruption were his main talking points. A day after piling up substantial vote totals against the incumbent president, Mr. Buhari, a former general who once rose to power in a military coup, further consolidated something extraordinary for Nigeria: the peaceful passing of power from one political party to another through the ballot box. The country is now a democratic nation like others, Mr. Buhari suggested Wednesday, both in his words and in the fact that the democratic process had worked well enough that he could give the speech at all. But in his […]

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Nigeria: Oil Revenue Drops to U.S.$32.3 Billion, Says IMF

Revenue received by the federation from crude oil sales, Petroleum Products Taxes (PPT), and royalties (after subsidies provided by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and cash calls) has decreased from $45 billion in 2011 to $32.3 billion in 2014, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Country Report on Nigeria. Besides, between 2011 and 2014, oil lifting fell from 2.38 to 2.19 mbpd (71⁄2 per cent decline), largely due to stoppages associated with pipeline vandalism. The report, which was released on Monday, stated that the drop in oil revenue over 2011 to 2014, was larger than expected from the evolution of oil prices and production. The IMF said that in 2015, oil exports are projected to decline by six percentage points (ppts) of Gross Domestic Product and oil revenue by 2.4 ppts of GDP from 2014 levels, with a reduction in the current account balance and loss in international reserves. […]

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Muhammadu Buhari, a Familiar, and Now Less Divisive, Choice in Nigerian Election

Photo Muhammadu Buhari spent 30 years out of power before winning election as president. Credit Ben Curtis/Associated Press KANO, Nigeria — The 72-year-old former general elected as Nigeria ’s new president this week is not exactly new to the democratic process: He spent much of the past decade campaigning for the office in three successive elections — and failing each time. But then, as detractors insist and many supporters acknowledge, the former general, Muhammadu Buhari, had a long way to go to prove that he had left the military barracks behind. He first came to power in a coup over 30 years ago and became one of his country’s harshest military rulers, waging a “war against indiscipline” that prescribed humiliating punishment for tardy civil servants. He publicly executed young drug dealers on the beach, jailed journalists and expelled thousands of immigrants. He arrested 475 politicians and businessmen on corruption […]

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Nigeria’s Buhari praises Jonathan for peaceful handover

ABUJA (Reuters) – Nigerian election winner Muhammadu Buhari congratulated outgoing president Goodluck Jonathan for peacefully relinquishing power on Wednesday, a day after becoming the first Nigerian politician to unseat a sitting leader at the ballot box. In an unprecedented step, Jonathan phoned Buhari to concede defeat and issued a statement urging his supporters to accept the result, a signal of deepening democracy in Africa’s most populous nation that few had expected. "President Jonathan was a worthy opponent and I extend the hand of fellowship to him," Buhari told journalists and supporters to loud applause, wearing a black cap and kaftan. "We have proven to the world that we are people who have embraced democracy. We have put one-party state behind us." The 72-year-old general, who first came to power three decades ago via a military coup, campaigned as a born-again democrat intent on cleaning up the corrupt politics of […]

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