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An Energy Firm’s Collapse Casts Ominous Sign Over Mortgage Bonds

A pair of office towers in Tulsa, Oklahoma, is giving commercial real estate investors more reason to worry that the collapse in oil prices is starting to infect their market. The biggest tenant, oil and gas producer Samson Resources Corp., vacated one of the more than a dozen floors it occupied, according to a report from the firm that services a $45 million mortgage on the buildings known as the Williams Center Towers. Samson, which is preparing to file for bankruptcy protection this month, has indicated it will abandon another floor next year, and its lease gives it the right to withdraw from more space after that, according to the report. Samson’s shrinking footprint is laying bare the risks faced in cities that boomed amid the U.S. shale revolution — and are now the most vulnerable to the commodities rout. That’s increasing concern in the market for commercial mortgage […]

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China turmoil divides Fed over inflation

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Challenged on Left and Right, the Fed Faces a Decision on Rates

Photo Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman. Credit Stephen Crowley/The New York Times JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Conservative activists who want the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates distributed chocolate coins in golden wrappers at the local airport last week as Fed officials arrived for their annual policy retreat. Liberal activists in green “Whose Recovery?” T-shirts formed a receiving line at the resort hotel in the heart of Grand Teton National Park where the meeting was held, to personalize their argument that the Fed should wait. Sometime soon — possibly as early as mid-September and probably no later than the end of the year — the Fed plans to raise its benchmark interest rate one-quarter of one percentage point, a mathematically minor move that has become a very big deal. Investors, who always pay attention to the Fed, are paying particular attention now. The central bank has held […]

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U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate revised up to 3.7 percent

People are seen walking through Roosevelt Field shopping mall in Garden City, New York February 22, 2015. The U.S. homeland security chief said on Sunday he takes seriously an apparent threat by Somali-based Islamist militants against prominent shopping sites in the West… Aug 27 The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter on solid domestic demand, showing fairly strong momentum that could still allow the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates this year. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.7 percent annual pace instead of the 2.3 percent rate reported last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday in its second GDP estimate. The GDP report, which was released in the wake of a global stock market sell-off, should offer assurance to both investors and cautious Fed officials that the United States was in good shape to weather the growing strains in the world economy. […]

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Excluding a Slump in Oil Investments, the U.S. Economy Grew the Most in Nine Years

A gas flare burns at an oil well site near Sidney, Montana, U.S. Photographer: Daniel Acker The U.S. clocked its fastest rate of economic growth in nine years. Well, at least if you strip out the effects of a battered energy sector. Oil and exploration companies this year have cut back on investment in response to a plunge in crude prices that gathered steam as 2014 drew to a close. If it weren’t for such a dramatic reversal in demand for drilling rigs and wells, the economy would have posted its strongest pace of growth since the start of 2006. Gross domestic product, which includes what consumers, companies and governments spend and invest, increased at a 4.5 percent annualized rate in the second quarter when outlays for exploration, shafts and wells are excluded. Corporate investment in oil and mining structures retreated at a whopping 68 percent annualized rate from […]

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Fitch sees Houston at risk from weak oil market

Fitch Ratings sees some risk for Houston finances and jobs because of the depressed crude oil market. Photo by Aaron M. Sprecher/UPI CHICAGO, Aug. 26 (UPI) — Fitch Ratings finds lower crude oil prices will impact U.S. cities differently, though Houston may be a standout in terms of financial risk. U.S. crude oil prices are down more than 50 percent from this time last year. An increase in oil production, largely from reserve areas like the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas, has pushed markets toward the supply side. Fitch found that, since at least the early 1980s, local government finances have been linked strongly to energy prices. Using metrics like tax revenue and gross domestic product, the ratings agency found some Texas cities in particular were pressured by the weak crude oil market . For the state as a whole, tax collections for June were down 1.4 percent […]

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Deflationary Collapse Ahead?

Both the stock market and oil prices have been plunging. Is this “just another cycle,” or is it something much worse? I think it is something much worse. Back in January, I wrote a post called Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16? In it, I said that persistent very low prices could be a sign that we are reaching limits of a finite world . In fact, the scenario that is playing out matches up with what I expected to happen in my January post. In that post, I said Needless to say, stagnating wages together with rapidly rising costs of oil production leads to a mismatch between: The amount consumers can afford for oil The cost of oil, if oil price matches the cost of production This mismatch between rising costs of oil production and stagnating wages is what has been happening. The unaffordability […]

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Signs, Long Unheeded, Now Point to Risks in U.S. Economy

Photo Awaiting the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Credit Justin Lane/European Pressphoto Agency As investors scramble to make sense of the wild market swings in recent days, a number of financial experts argue that, for more than a year now, signs pointing to an equity crisis were there for all to see. The data points range from the obvious to the obscure, encompassing stock market and credit bubbles in China, the strength of the dollar relative to emerging market currencies, a commodity rout and a sudden halt to global earnings growth. While it would have been impossible to predict the precise timing of the last week’s downturn, this array of economic and financial indicators led to an inescapable conclusion, these analysts say: The United States economy would only be able to avoid for so long the deflationary forces that have taken root in China. And if […]

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Risks Grow for Slow but Steady U.S. Expansion

The U.S. has been the tortoise in a global race for economic growth, plodding out a slow but steady expansion while China signals exhaustion and the rest of the world wobbles. Now, market turmoil and China’s troubles threaten to undermine the already unspectacular U.S. outlook. Few economists see a U.S. recession. In fact, some recent developments, including lower oil prices, will help U.S. consumers and businesses. But an uneven global growth outlook is pushing the value of the dollar higher, making U.S. goods more expensive overseas and harder to export. That could restrain the U.S. economy in the months ahead. Stock-market declines could further hurt U.S. consumer sentiment and spending, if the drops are sustained, and they make businesses even less willing to invest. Federal Reserve officials now need to decide if they should alter their planned course on interest rates. Officials have been signaling for months that at […]

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Treasuries Roar as Disinflation Specter Haunts Global Economy

Treasuries headed for the biggest weekly gain in five months as slumping commodities prices sparked speculation a slowdown in global growth will revive deflation and delay the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates early. Benchmark U.S. government securities headed for the strongest rally since March as sliding oil prices pushed a gauge of inflation expectations toward a five-year low, enhancing the allure of fixed-income assets. The average yield on developed nation debt fell to the lowest in three months. “Risk-off sentiment has been strong over the past couple of weeks and supporting sovereign debt,” said Tomohisa Fujiki, head of interest-rate strategy for Japan at BNP Paribas SA in Tokyo. “Doubts about Chinese growth fueled concern about slackening global demand and emerging nations, which seems to have helped pave the way for a correction in Treasuries.” The U.S. 10-year note yield fell 14 basis points this week to 2.06 percent […]

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