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Russia Signals It Will Withdraw Troops From Ukraine Border

Russia signaled on Monday it was pulling some troops away from its border with Ukraine, a move that met with skepticism in the West but could represent the Kremlin’s first notable concession after weeks of frantic diplomacy by the U.S. and Europe. It remained unclear just how many troops Russia was withdrawing. The German government said President told Chancellor Angela Merkel by phone that he had "ordered a partial withdrawal" of military forces massing along Ukraine’s eastern border. Russia’s Defense Ministry said an infantry battalion—a relatively small number of troops—had been ordered to return from a position near Ukraine to their base some 800 miles to the east. Ukrainian officials said as many as 20,000 Russian troops had apparently been moved back from the border in recent days, but that some 40,000 remained. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he couldn’t confirm whether Russian forces were pulling troops back. […]

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Promises of Diplomacy but No Advances in Ukraine Talks

Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart agreed on Sunday that a political solution was needed for Ukraine and said they planned to continue discussing ways to de-escalate the crisis over the country’s future and Russia ’s annexation of Crimea. But neither side claimed a breakthrough, and Russia did not commit to pulling back the more than 40,000 troops the United States says are massed near Ukraine’s border. “Both of us recognize the importance of finding a diplomatic solution and simultaneously meeting the needs of the Ukrainian people, and that we agreed on tonight,” Mr. Kerry told reporters after meeting with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov. In a separate news conference, Mr. Lavrov said he and Mr. Kerry had agreed to work on securing the rights of minorities and “linguistic rights” in Ukraine, which has a large ethnic Russian population. The treatment of […]

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Kerry's Talks With Russia's Lavrov Fail to Ease Ukraine Crisis

Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart appeared to make no major advances Sunday in a four-hour meeting aimed at easing the standoff over Ukraine, raising the specter of a prolonged crisis that threatens to bring broader instability to Europe. Mr. Kerry, in remarks after the negotiations, said he received no assurances from the Kremlin that it would pull back thousands of Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s eastern border. The chief U.S. diplomat and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also didn’t appear to reach any major common ground on discussions aimed at revamping Ukraine’s political system. Mr. Kerry said his counterpart pledged Russia’s desire to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine but offered no specifics. Read about key events since the Cold War. "Any real progress in Ukraine must include a pullback of the very large Russian force that is currently amassing along Ukraine’s border," Mr. Kerry said. "Tonight […]

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Kerry’s Talks With Russia’s Lavrov Fail to Ease Ukraine Crisis

Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart appeared to make no major advances Sunday in a four-hour meeting aimed at easing the standoff over Ukraine, raising the specter of a prolonged crisis that threatens to bring broader instability to Europe. Mr. Kerry, in remarks after the negotiations, said he received no assurances from the Kremlin that it would pull back thousands of Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s eastern border. The chief U.S. diplomat and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also didn’t appear to reach any major common ground on discussions aimed at revamping Ukraine’s political system. Mr. Kerry said his counterpart pledged Russia’s desire to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine but offered no specifics. Read about key events since the Cold War. "Any real progress in Ukraine must include a pullback of the very large Russian force that is currently amassing along Ukraine’s border," Mr. Kerry said. "Tonight […]

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Obama Envisions Russia Sanctions Limiting Global Impact

The U.S. is looking to minimize the global harm from further penalties on Russia over Ukraine , as the International Monetary Fund moves forward with a multibillion-dollar lifeline to the government in Kiev. President Barack Obama said that Russia’s military, energy and finance industries are possible targets if it moves deeper in Ukraine. While additional sanctions would inevitably also affect the economies of the U.S. and Europe, Obama said, the goal is to limit the collateral damage. “Hopefully, we can design sanctions that minimize the impact on U.S. companies or Italian companies, and maximize the impact on the narrow set of interests in Russia that help drive the decisions that they’re making,” he said yesterday at a news conference in Rome with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Obama spoke hours after the IMF unveiled a preliminary accord with Ukraine for a two-year loan of $14 billion to $18 billion […]

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Russian Energy Denied Goods as U.S. Exports Suspended

The Obama administration is blocking certain U.S. exports to Russia , including some used in its oil and gas industry, expanding the response to the annexation of Crimea. The State Department said today it halted licensing for exports of defense items and services on March 24. The Commerce Department posted a notice on its website saying it had also suspending licensing, effective March 1. Goods licensed by Commerce alone represented $1.5 billion, or 14 percent of all U.S. exports to Russia last year. “This is a lot more significant than blocking some oligarchs,” said Michael Burton , a Washington lawyer who works on export controls. “In light of the allegations that have been made, how could we continue to license, say, rifle scopes to Russia?” Full coverage of the : The U.S. has previously issued sanctions to business leaders and government officials with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin […]

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IHS: Western sanctions indirectly could hinder Russian oil, gas revenues

Western sanctions imposed against Russian government officials and business executives regarding Russia’s conflict with Ukraine could slow the availability of capital for Russian oil and gas companies trying to launch major new projects, IHS said. The US and Europe earlier this month strengthened economic sanctions against Russia in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “While the sanctions so far do not impose any direct restrictions on the Russian energy sector, they undermine investor confidence, impeding Moscow’s efforts to generate economic growth through expanded investment,” said Julia Nanay, IHS Russia and Caspian energy analyst based in Washington, DC. International sanctions could weaken the ruble, resulting in what Nanay calls “negative momentum for Russian economic growth.” She said, “The sanctions on Russian officials, as well as ratings downgrades on investment, may negatively impact various big-ticket upstream and midstream projects perceived as vital for the Russian state–including gas pipelines, LNG projects , […]

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G7 ties energy security to Ukraine’s future

Energy security for Ukraine is an essential part of national security, Western leaders said in a joint declaration from The Hague. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, along with high-ranking officials from the European Union, met in The Hague, Netherlands, to express their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence. The leaders in a joint declaration , published Monday, said energy security was part of national security for Europe and Ukraine. "We remain united in our commitment to provide strong financial backing to Ukraine, to coordinate our technical assistance, and to provide assistance in other areas, including measures to enhance trade and strengthen energy security," they said. Ukraine descended into chaos in November when the government of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych opted to suspend efforts to sign free trade and association agreements with the EU. Russia has […]

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G7 ties energy security to Ukraine's future

Energy security for Ukraine is an essential part of national security, Western leaders said in a joint declaration from The Hague. Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, along with high-ranking officials from the European Union, met in The Hague, Netherlands, to express their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence. The leaders in a joint declaration , published Monday, said energy security was part of national security for Europe and Ukraine. "We remain united in our commitment to provide strong financial backing to Ukraine, to coordinate our technical assistance, and to provide assistance in other areas, including measures to enhance trade and strengthen energy security," they said. Ukraine descended into chaos in November when the government of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych opted to suspend efforts to sign free trade and association agreements with the EU. Russia has […]

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Russian Oil Seen Heading East Not West in Crimea Spat

The Crimean crisis is poised to reshape the politics of oil by accelerating Russia ’s drive to send more barrels to China , leaving Europe with pricier imports and boosting U.S. dependence on fuel from the Middle East. China already has agreed to buy more than $350 billion of Russian crude in coming years from the government of President Vladimir Putin . The ties are likely to deepen as the U.S. and Europe levy sanctions against Russia as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine. Such shifts will be hard to overcome. Europe, which gets about 30 percent of its natural gas from Russia, has few viable immediate alternatives. The U.S., even after the shale boom, must import 40 percent of its crude oil , 10.6 million barrels a day that leaves the country vulnerable to global markets. The alternatives to Russia also carry significant financial, environmental and geological challenges. […]

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Russia Steps Up Economic Pressure on Kiev

KIEV, Ukraine — Russia and Russian state companies have increased the economic pressure on the new pro-Western government in Kiev over the past week, closing the border to most trucks, shutting a Ukrainian factory in Russia and yet again raising the price of natural gas . The actions revive an array of Russian economic foreign policy tools used for years and made possible by Russia’s robust domestic consumer market and the country’s energy exports. About a quarter of all Ukraine ’s exports go to Russia, and factories here have benefited from a growing demand in the defense sector and rising consumer purchasing power. Russia’s manipulation of gas prices under various pretexts has for a decade proved to be a particular headache for pro-Western Ukrainian governments. Russia is now asking close to $500 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas, the standard unit for gas trade in Europe, which is a […]

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Foreign Monitors Enter Ukraine to Observe Political Situation

The first foreign observers permitted by governments in Moscow and Kiev to monitor the political situation and human rights are assembling in the Ukrainian capital and will start fanning out across the troubled region on Tuesday, a spokeswoman said Sunday. Deployment of the first 100 observers — a number that may rise to 500 during the six-month mission — was viewed by some diplomats as the first break in the crisis over Crimea since Russia sent thousands of troops into the peninsula and then annexed it last week. The annexation, considered illegal by the West, followed a public referendum in favor in Crimea on March 16. Moscow expressly barred the monitors from Crimea, and even suggested that the mission constituted foreign recognition that the peninsula was now Russia’s — a notion swiftly dismissed in the West. The monitors are working for the 57-nation Organization for Security […]

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As Sanctions Start, Russia Feels a Sting

American and European sanctions rattled Russia’s economy on Friday, with Moscow’s stock indexes opening sharply lower, rating agencies threatening to reduce the country’s creditworthiness, and hints of trepidation coming from Russia’s tycoons as they concluded an annual conference here. But if the aim of the sanctions is to put economic pressure on the wealthy allies crucial to President Vladimir V. Putin’s continued grip on power, there were few signs they would succeed, largely because those targeted were among the new generations of oligarchs who owe their fortunes and loyalties to Mr. Putin. And even though Russia has become more integrated in the global economy, those who were not targeted — other billionaires and millionaires who have prospered in the Russia that emerged under Mr. Putin’s rule — have not shown signs of breaking ranks , either, since the prospects of sanctions first arose. One of those […]

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Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce “Holy Grail” Gas Deal With China

If it was the intent of the West to bring Russia and China together – one a natural resource (if “somewhat” corrupt) superpower and the other a fixed capital / labor output (if “somewhat” capital misallocating and credit bubbleicious) powerhouse – in the process marginalizing the dollar and encouraging Ruble and Renminbi bilateral trade, then things are surely “going according to plan.” For now there have been no major developments as a result of the shift in the geopolitical axis that has seen global US influence, away from the Group of 7 (most insolvent nations) of course, decline precipitously in the aftermath of the bungled Syrian intervention attempt and the bloodless Russian annexation of Crimea, but that will soon change. Because while the west is focused on day to day developments in […]

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Ukraine crisis: EU signs association deal

The agreement moves Ukraine and its interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk closer to the EU EU leaders have signed an agreement on closer relations with Ukraine, in a show of support following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Ukraine’s interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the EU signed the deal in Brussels. Pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych’s abandonment of the deal had led to deadly protests, his removal and Russia taking over Crimea. On Friday, Russia’s upper house unanimously approved the treaty on Crimea joining the Russian Federation. The EU Association Agreement is designed to give Ukraine’s interim leadership economic and political support. EU President Herman Van Rompuy said in a tweeted message: "Signing political part EU-Ukraine Association Agreement symbolises importance of relations [and] will to take it further." The move comes hours after the EU broadened its sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea. It added 12 individuals to an earlier list of 21 […]

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“The Oil and Gas Weapon Won’t Work”: Davis & Leggett on Ukraine

Lt. Col. Daniel Davis & Jeremy Leggett in  The National Interest : “After many weeks of political chaos and bloodshed in Kiev, Moscow sent soldiers across the frontier into the Crimea on February 27, claiming it aimed to protect the Russian-speaking population.” “Writing in the  Washington Post  on March 7, former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice captured the essence of many in the US who advocate using oil as a weapon against Russia. She wrote that “soon, North America’s bounty of oil and gas will swamp Moscow’s capacity. Authorizing the Keystone XL pipeline and championing natural gas exports would signal that we intend to do precisely that.” Secretary Rice’s assumptions regarding the state of US tight oil and gas as “bountiful” are common among many opinion leaders in the West. They also happen to be wrong. Before contemplating the use of US oil and gas as a strategic weapon, […]

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“The Oil and Gas Weapon Won’t Work”: Davis & Leggett on Ukraine

Lt. Col. Daniel Davis & Jeremy Leggett in  The National Interest : “After many weeks of political chaos and bloodshed in Kiev, Moscow sent soldiers across the frontier into the Crimea on February 27, claiming it aimed to protect the Russian-speaking population.” “Writing in the  Washington Post  on March 7, former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice captured the essence of many in the US who advocate using oil as a weapon against Russia. She wrote that “soon, North America’s bounty of oil and gas will swamp Moscow’s capacity. Authorizing the Keystone XL pipeline and championing natural gas exports would signal that we intend to do precisely that.” Secretary Rice’s assumptions regarding the state of US tight oil and gas as “bountiful” are common among many opinion leaders in the West. They also happen to be wrong. Before contemplating the use of US oil and gas as a strategic weapon, […]

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Ukraine crisis: Russia faces fresh sanctions over Crimea

Crimean pro-Russian forces seized two naval bases on Wednesday European Union leaders are due to meet in Brussels to discuss further targeted sanctions in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. It comes as UN chief Ban Ki-moon visits Russian leaders in Moscow to urge a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Tensions remain high in Crimea – pro-Russia forces seized two bases on Wednesday, including Ukraine’s navy HQ in Sevastopol. Ukraine’s navy commander was detained, but has now been released. Crimean leaders signed a treaty with Moscow on Tuesday to absorb the peninsula – an autonomous republic in southern Ukraine – into Russia, following a disputed referendum on Sunday. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the political process was expected to be completed this week, Russia’s Interfax news agency reports. The lower house will vote on ratifying the Crimea treaty on Thursday, and the upper house on Friday. […]

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Shell Pulls Out of Ukraine Deal Near Crimea

Royal Dutch Shell PLC said Wednesday that it withdrew from negotiations over an offshore exploration deal in the Black Sea, west of Crimea. Shell made the decision to pull out in January, a spokesman said. The Anglo-Dutch energy major was part of a group of companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. that struck a deal with the Ukraine government to develop the offshore Skifska oil-and-gas field. "In the Ukraine, we maintain our interest in the Skifska license, but it is on hold due to current circumstances," Exxon Senior Vice President Andrew Swiger told analysts at a meeting earlier this month. The Ukrainian government announced the deal in 2012, but a Shell spokesman said Wednesday that Shell still hadn’t signed the agreement at the time it pulled out in January. The spokesman said Shell is still pursuing other Ukraine projects, including exploration for "tight" natural gas in […]

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After annexing Crimea, Russians move to carve up the spoils

While the people of Simferopol celebrated Russia’s annexation of Crimea , 10 minutes’ drive from the city centre on Balaklava Street another Russian invasion was under way – this time of a private business. A group of heavily-armed suspected Russian soldiers in ski masks on Tuesday stormed the Bogdan Avto-Salon, a Hyundai and Subaru dealership in a quiet suburb of the city, taking control of its offices and salesrooms. The men, who later stood guard along the salon’s perimeter fence, refused to identify themselves to reporters and waved them away with guns. Critics of Moscow have been warning for weeks now that Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea were just the start, and that commercial business on the peninsula would be the next target. Events on Balaklava Street suggests they might be right. “It’s clear there’s going to be a new carve-up of property here now that […]

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Defying Sanctions, Putin Moves Swiftly to Annex Crimea

Moving swiftly in the face of international condemnation, President Vladimir V. Putin on Tuesday notified Russia’s Parliament of his intention to make Crimea a part of the Russian Federation, defying the United States and Europe just hours after they imposed their first financial sanctions against Moscow since the crisis in Ukraine began. The Kremlin announced Mr. Putin’s decision only hours after he formally recognized Crimea as a “sovereign and independent state” late Monday night, after a vote to secede from Ukraine that was hastily organized and conducted under the watch of thousands of Russian special operations troops. Mr. Putin is scheduled to address both houses of Parliament on Tuesday afternoon and, according to reports, could outline his vision for annexing a region that has been under the authority of Kiev since 1954 and part of an independent Ukraine since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Mr. Putin’s […]

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Release oil from US reserve to hurt Russia

Russia’s seizure of Crimea has prompted political leaders in Europe and North America to seek meaningful measures to convince Russia to pull back its troops. In particular, they seek measures that would affect Russia immediately, putting internal pressure on the country’s leaders to stop their aggression while leaving the rest of the world unharmed. Some propose accelerating natural gas exports from the US to Europe. However, this is no better than computer “vapourware” because the gas would not arrive for years. A viable alternative to gas exports is releasing oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). These stocks are available today and could have a speedy impact on Russia. Given that the country depends on oil and natural gas exports for its survival, such an action would have a quick and significant effect if the release depresses oil prices. The SPR now holds 694m barrels of crude. The […]

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Ukraine works to protect gas infrastructure

The Ukrainian government said Monday it was taking special security precautions to ensure gas pipeline infrastructure was protected during conflict with Russia. Ukrainian opposition leader Dmitry Yarosh said Sunday he’d destroy the Soviet-era gas transmission network through Ukraine in response to Russian "occupiers," Russian news agency RT reported. European consumers get about a quarter of their natural gas from Russia, though the bulk of that heads through Ukraine’s pipeline system. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said Monday it was taking the necessary security precautions. "The National Guard and Security Service of Ukraine have put in place special protective measures concerning the gas transmission and distribution system of Ukraine," a statement carried by Russian news agency RIA Novosti said. "This decision was made to ensure the safety and smooth operation of critical infrastructure in the country." Conflict erupted in Ukraine in November when ousted President Viktor Yanukovych , a Kremlin ally, […]

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Crimea parliament declares independence after vote

Crimea’s regional parliament has declared the region an independent state, after its residents voted overwhelmingly to break off from Ukraine and seek to join Russia, news agencies reported. Sunday’s referendum is not recognized by the West, and the United States and the European Union are preparing sanctions against Russia, whose troops have been occupying Crimea for several weeks. A delegation of Crimean lawmakers is set to travel to Moscow Monday for negotiations on how to proceed further. Russian lawmakers have suggested that formally annexing Crimea is just a matter of time.

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Commodities Cushioned From Crimea Crisis by Ample Supply

Unprecedented natural gas reserves in Europe , record global grain output and the threat of mutual economic calamity from oil sanctions are cushioning commodity prices even as the Ukraine-Russia conflict spurs a gold rally. While U.K. gas prices, a European benchmark, rose 5.1 percent since the crisis began at the end of February, they are still the lowest for this time of year since 2010. Brent crude fell 1 percent. After wheat advanced 15 percent and corn 4.6 percent, both remain about a quarter below the peaks in 2010, the last time Russia and Ukraine curbed shipments. Gold reached a six-month high on March 14 as demand for a haven grew. Abundant supply is limiting some price swings caused by Russia ’s incursion into Crimea, where a majority in a disputed vote yesterday chose to join Russia, preliminary results show. Europe gets about a third of its gas from […]

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Russia’s $160 Billion Stick Hinders Crimean Sanctions

2014. Fireworks exploded and Russian flags fluttered above jubilant crowds Sunday after residents in Crimea voted overwhelmingly to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The United States and Europe condemned the ballot as illegal and destabilizing and were expected to slap sanctions against Russia for it. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda) Close Close Open Pro-Russian people celebrate in Lenin Square, in Simferopol, Ukraine, Sunday, March 16, 2014. Fireworks exploded and Russian flags fluttered above jubilant crowds Sunday after residents in Crimea voted overwhelmingly to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The United States and Europe condemned the ballot as illegal and destabilizing and were expected to slap sanctions against Russia for it. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda) As U.S. and European officials threaten sanctions in their face-off with Russia over , Vladimir Putin’s $160 billion in oil and natural gas exports […]

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16% of Natural Gas Consumed in Europe Flows Through Ukraine

. Europe, including all EU members plus Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, and the non-EU Balkan states, consumed 18.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas in 2013. Russia supplied 30% (5.7 Tcf) of this volume, with a significant amount flowing through Ukraine. EIA estimates that 16% (3.0 Tcf) of the total natural gas consumed in Europe passed through Ukraine’s pipeline network, based on data reported by Gazprom and Eastern Bloc Energy. Two major pipeline systems carry Russian gas through Ukraine to Western Europe—the Bratstvo (Brotherhood) and Soyuz (Union) pipelines. The Bratstvo pipeline is Russia’s largest pipeline to Europe. It crosses from Ukraine to Slovakia and splits in two to supply northern and southern European […]

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CEOs of Biggest Russian Firms Could Be Hit by Sanctions -Paper

The CEOs of Russia’s two largest firms are on a list of those who may be hit next week with European and U.S. sanctions over the Crimea crisis, a German newspaper said on Friday, suggesting tougher than expected measures against Russia’s elite. Moscow shipped more troops and armour into Crimea on Friday and repeated its threat to invade other parts of Ukraine, showing no sign of heeding Western pleas to back off from the worst East-West confrontation since the Cold War. Russia’s stock markets tumbled and the cost of insuring its debt soared on the last day of trading before pro-Moscow authorities in Crimea hold a vote to join Russia, a move all but certain to lead to U.S. and European Union sanctions on Monday. European officials told Reuters the EU was working on a five page list of 120-130 Russians who could […]

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ANALYSIS: Potential sanctions may hit Russian oil, gas sectors long term

While many analysts see the sanctions, as they are proposed currently, only being partially effective, others say they could have much wider implications in the long term, potentially affecting the oil and gas sector too. "Though the scope of the sanctions remains uncertain, the effect could be enormous," Russia’s economist Sergei Guriev said in his column with the Project Syndicate, an online platform for expert opinion. A significant fall in foreign direct investment, "which brings not only money but also modern technology and managerial skills, would hit Russia’s long-term economic growth hard," Guriev said, adding that FDI was estimated to have reached $80 billion in 2013. In the short term, "it is trade that matters much more than investment," he said. Russia’s annual exports, mostly oil, gas, and other commodities, are worth nearly $600 billion, with annual imports totaling almost $500 billion, according to Guriev. The most important source […]

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Russia holds war games near Ukraine; Merkel warns of catastrophe

Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine on Thursday, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex its neighbor’s Crimea region despite a stronger than expected drive for sanctions from the EU and United States. In an unusually robust and emotional speech, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned of "catastrophe" unless Russia changes course, while a man was killed in Ukraine in fighting between rival protesters in a mainly Russian-speaking city. At the U.N. Security Council, the United States circulated a draft resolution that would declare illegal Sunday’s planned referendum on independence for Ukraine’s Crimea region. But Russia, one of the Security Council’s five veto-wielding permanent members, made clear it opposed the draft. "Russia announced they will kill it," a senior Western diplomat told Reuters. In Berlin, Merkel removed any suspicion she might try to avoid a confrontation with Russian President Vladimir […]

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The Crimean crisis could spell trouble for a Morgan Stanley deal

Russia’s intervention in Ukraine signals trouble for OAO ‘s bid to buy Morgan Stanley ‘s oil-trading unit, according to people involved in the deal and others familiar with the U.S. government’s approval process. The proposed acquisition by Russia’s biggest oil producer, which is state-controlled, needs U.S. government approval by the Committee on Foreign Investment. CFIUS, a secretive government body, weighs national security risks and can sink deals. One person familiar with the deal said that if U.S.-Russia relations deteriorate further the companies would reassess whether they can proceed. Rosneft is paying several hundred million dollars for the business, the person familiar with the deal said, adding the companies are still months from seeking official U.S. government approval. A Rosneft spokesman said the companies "are working together according to an agreed schedule." Morgan Stanley said it wasn’t deterred. "We intend to submit the transaction for all necessary regulatory approvals, and […]

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West readying sanctions after Crimea vote

With little hope of halting a vote to separate a strategic Ukraine peninsula from the rest of the country, the West is readying to impose harsh sanctions on Russia for what U.S. officials described as Moscow’s insistence in undermining the new upstart government in Kiev, and fueling tensions among those who oppose it. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry flew to London on Friday to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a last-minute bid to stave off a new chapter in the East-West crisis over Ukraine. On Sunday, Ukraine’s pro-Russian Crimea region will vote whether to secede, and perhaps join Russia, in anger over new leaders in Kiev who seek to forge stronger economic ties with Europe. European and U.S. leaders have repeatedly urged Moscow to pull back its troops in Crimea, and stop encouraging local militias there that are hyping up the vote […]

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Obama Makes Diplomatic Push to Defuse Crisis in Ukraine

President Obama and Ukraine’s interim prime minister opened the door on Wednesday to a political solution that could lead to more autonomy for Crimea if Russian troops withdraw, as the United States embarked on a last-ditch diplomatic effort to defuse a crisis that reignited tensions between East and West. The tentative feeler came as Mr. Obama dispatched Secretary of State John Kerry to London to meet with his Russian counterpart on Friday, two days before a Russian-supported referendum in Crimea on whether to secede from Ukraine. Mr. Obama said the world would “completely reject” what he called a “slapdash election,” but added he still hoped for a peaceful settlement. In a show of solidarity for the […]

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Putin Opens Up Europe’s Energy Fault Line Along Oder-Neisse

By moving forces into the Crimea region, the Russian president caused a jump in natural… By moving forces into the Crimea region, the Russian president caused a jump in natural gas prices from the U.K. to Germany, highlighting Europe’s dependence on gas piped through Ukrainian territory. Close Close Open Photographer: Vincent Mundy/Bloomberg By moving forces into the Crimea region, the Russian president caused a jump in natural gas prices from the U.K. to Germany, highlighting Europe’s dependence on gas piped through Ukrainian territory. Vladimir Putin’s play to wrest control of Ukraine is accentuating divisions in the European Union over how to balance climate and energy policies, driving a wedge between and its eastern neighbor Poland. By moving forces into the Crimea region, the Russian president caused a jump in natural gas prices from the U.K. to Germany, highlighting Europe’s dependence on gas piped through Ukrainian territory. […]

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Angela Merkel accuses Russia of adopting ‘law of the jungle’

German chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday accused Russia of resorting to “the law of the jungle” in the Crimea crisis, in a tough speech to parliament in which she warned that the EU would go ahead with its planned sanctions unless Moscow changed course. In the strongest language she has ever employed in her dealings with Russia, Ms Merkel said: “In a period of great uncertainty in Ukraine, Russia has not proven to be a partner for stability in a neighbouring country to which it is historically, culturally and economically closely related, but exploits its weaknesses.” Moscow had acted illegally, using the methods of the 19th and 20th centuries, she said. ”The law of the jungle is placed against the strength of the law, unilateral geopolitical concerns against understanding and co-operation.” Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014. You may share using our article tools. Please don’t cut articles from […]

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Ukraine: Challenging the pipelines narrative

Of course it is all about surrounding the last truly free countries that can actually stop the Empire. Russia and China. If they can get Russia out of their Crimean navy base, they have locked them into only North Atlantic/Arctic/North Pacific Ocean access. Plus, it allows NATO (US) missiles to be based on Russia’s border. If they (the Elite) think that Russia is going to give it up without a fight, they are badly mistaken or what I see is totally BS. This could eventually bring out the nukes as Obama has already said he will strike first if he wants to. Putin may just beat him to the red button. I give it 50:50 at this point. Another Cuban missile crises in the works. Are you prepared? Arthur on Wed, 12th Mar 2014 […]

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Ukraine's EU Neighbors See US Gas as Russian Hedge

Four Central European nations are urging the United States to boost natural gas exports to Europe as a hedge against the risk that Russia could cut its supply of gas to Ukraine, but the White House says such a move would take more than a year. Ambassadors from Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic made their appeal Friday in a letter to John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. A similar letter was expected to be sent to Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate. The letter from the four nations, known as the Visegrad Group, asks for Congress to support speedier approval of natural gas exports. It notes that the "presence of U.S. natural gas would be much welcome in Central and Eastern Europe." The ambassadors say the unrest in Ukraine has revived Cold War memories, and energy security […]

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Ukraine’s EU Neighbors See US Gas as Russian Hedge

Four Central European nations are urging the United States to boost natural gas exports to Europe as a hedge against the risk that Russia could cut its supply of gas to Ukraine, but the White House says such a move would take more than a year. Ambassadors from Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic made their appeal Friday in a letter to John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. A similar letter was expected to be sent to Harry Reid, the Democratic leader of the Senate. The letter from the four nations, known as the Visegrad Group, asks for Congress to support speedier approval of natural gas exports. It notes that the "presence of U.S. natural gas would be much welcome in Central and Eastern Europe." The ambassadors say the unrest in Ukraine has revived Cold War memories, and energy security […]

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Titans in Russia Fear New Front in Ukraine Crisis

Russian oligarchs are facing the prospect of economic fallout from the crisis. Credit Uriel Sinai for The New York Times MOSCOW — When Vladimir V. Putin returned to the Russian presidency in 2012, one of the first messages he sent to his political elite, many of them heads of banks and large corporations, was that the times had changed: Owning assets outside Russia makes you too vulnerable to moves by foreign governments, he told them. It is time to bring your wealth home. Nearly two years later, those words seem almost prophetic. After a week of escalating tensions between Russia and the United States, it has become clear that the conflict over Ukraine will move to the battlefield of finance. Those same business titans are now contemplating the damage that the crisis could inflict on Russia’s economy. Twenty years into the project […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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West Tries to Loosen Russia's Gas Grip

Western officials are scrambling to loosen Russia’s energy stranglehold on Ukraine, the latest sign of growing pressure on Moscow to end the crisis. The options being considered by officials from Brussels to Washington include larger exports of U.S.-made natural gas, reversing the flow of natural gas through pipelines from Western Europe back into Ukraine, and accelerating plans across Europe to buy more energy from countries other than Russia. "If no solution to this can be found," European countries will "recast their approach to energy and economic links with Russia over time," U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said Sunday. Western officials also have threatened sanctions against Russia if the Kremlin continues its occupation of the Crimea region of Ukraine. The threats have failed so far, with Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring his support Sunday for Crimea’s move to secede from Ukraine. The region could join Russia as soon as this […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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West Tries to Loosen Russia’s Gas Grip

Western officials are scrambling to loosen Russia’s energy stranglehold on Ukraine, the latest sign of growing pressure on Moscow to end the crisis. The options being considered by officials from Brussels to Washington include larger exports of U.S.-made natural gas, reversing the flow of natural gas through pipelines from Western Europe back into Ukraine, and accelerating plans across Europe to buy more energy from countries other than Russia. "If no solution to this can be found," European countries will "recast their approach to energy and economic links with Russia over time," U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said Sunday. Western officials also have threatened sanctions against Russia if the Kremlin continues its occupation of the Crimea region of Ukraine. The threats have failed so far, with Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring his support Sunday for Crimea’s move to secede from Ukraine. The region could join Russia as soon as this […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ukraine, Russia and the nonexistent U.S. oil and natural gas "weapon"

Commentators were falling all over themselves last week to announce that far from being impotent in the Ukraine crisis, the United States had a very important weapon: growing oil and natural gas production which could compete on the world market and challenge Russian dominance over Ukrainian and European energy supplies–if only the U.S. government would change the laws and allow this bounty to be exported. But, there’s one very big problem with this view. The United States is still a net importer of both oil and natural gas. The economics of natural gas exports beyond Mexico and Canada–which are both integrated into a North American pipeline system–suggest that such exports will be very limited if they ever come at all. And, there is no reasonable prospect that the United States will ever become a net exporter of oil. Natural Gas Tank  (Image credit: Shutterstock ) U.S. net imports of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ukraine, Russia and the nonexistent U.S. oil and natural gas “weapon”

Commentators were falling all over themselves last week to announce that far from being impotent in the Ukraine crisis, the United States had a very important weapon: growing oil and natural gas production which could compete on the world market and challenge Russian dominance over Ukrainian and European energy supplies–if only the U.S. government would change the laws and allow this bounty to be exported. But, there’s one very big problem with this view. The United States is still a net importer of both oil and natural gas. The economics of natural gas exports beyond Mexico and Canada–which are both integrated into a North American pipeline system–suggest that such exports will be very limited if they ever come at all. And, there is no reasonable prospect that the United States will ever become a net exporter of oil. Natural Gas Tank  (Image credit: Shutterstock ) U.S. net imports of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Gazprom Threatens Ukraine Supplies Over Late Payment

Gazprom said Friday it may suspend gas supply to Ukraine after Kiev failed to pay for February deliveries, but Russia’s gas monopoly said it will continue transit shipments to Europe. "We cannot supply gas for free. Either Ukraine redeems debt and pays for the current deliveries, or there is a risk to return to the situation of early 2009," Gazprom Chairman Alexei Miller said. Mr. Miller said that Ukraine now owes $1.89 billion for gas after it failed to meet a March 7 deadline for payment of the February deliveries. Russia switched off natural gas to Ukraine at the start of 2009 after talks on a new contract ended in failure. The failure of those talks lead to the temporary suspension of deliveries to Europe through Ukraine. But a spokesman for Gazprom said the current dispute with Ukraine wouldn’t have impact on supplies to the rest of Europe. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Why Russia Can’t Afford Another Cold War

in 1958. The old Soviet Union was all but impervious to foreign economic or business pressure. Credit Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Russian troops pour over a border. An autocratic Russian leader blames the United States and unspecified “radicals and nationalists” for meddling. A puppet leader pledges fealty to Moscow. It’s no wonder the crisis in Ukraine this week drew comparisons to Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 or that a chorus of pundits proclaimed the re-emergence of the Cold War. But there’s at least one major difference between then and now: Moscow has a stock market. Continue reading the main story Under the autocratic grip of President Vladimir Putin , Russia may be a democracy in name only, but the gyrations of the Moscow stock exchange provided a minute-by-minute referendum on his military and diplomatic actions. On […]

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Russia Invokes $2 Billion Ukraine Gas Debt Amid Crimea Crisis

Andrew Wilson, chief executive officer for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, talks about investment opportunities in emerging markets, the crisis in Ukraine and the outlook for U.S. and China growth. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg) Russia said Ukraine’s natural gas debt climbed to almost $2 billion and signaled supplies may be cut, ratcheting up pressure on its neighbor as they scrap over the future of the Black Sea Crimea region. Ukraine hasn’t made its February fuel payment and owes Russia $1.89 billion, according to gas export monopoly OAO Gazprom (OGZD) , which halted supplies to Ukraine five years ago amid a pricing and debt dispute, curbing flows to Europe. Lawmakers in Moscow said they’d accept the results of a March 16 referendum on Crimea joining Russia as Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine’s premier, […]

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Moody’s: Ukraine line shutdown could cost Europe 56 bcm of gas

In the event of a complete stoppage in Russian natural gas transit via Ukraine, Europe will experience a gas deficit of as much as 56 billion cu m (bcm) during 2014, said Moody’s Investors Service in a recent Global Credit Research report. Such a shortfall would predominantly affect Italy, Turkey, France, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria. Warmer weather conditions, however, seasonal reductions in demand, and relatively high current gas stockpiles would to an extent mitigate the negative effects, Moody’s said. Ukraine also officially confirmed earlier this week that it would deliver gas to Europe under its 11-year transit agreement with Gazprom signed in 2009. The evolving situation in Ukraine adds uncertainty to the reliability of Gazprom’s natural gas exports via Ukraine’s 143 bcm/year Soviet-era pipeline network, which connects Gazprom’s gas transportation system with the European gas network in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, said Moody’s. Prolonged turmoil […]

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EU leaders meet in Brussels to address Ukraine crisis

Pro-European protests in Ukraine ©EPA Ukraine’s economic situation has been described as ‘catastrophic’ EU leaders on Thursday will lead the west’s diplomatic efforts to counter Russia’s takeover of Crimea after a day of multiple setbacks when the Kremlin refused to engage with the new Ukrainian government and the allies were at loggerheads over how tough to be with Moscow. The emergency summit in Brussels comes as the US issued a detailed 10-point rebuttal of Russia’s “false narrative” about Ukraine. In addressing Russian claims that it has no troops in Ukraine, that its actions are legitimate and the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, the state department said: “The world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky.” David Cameron, UK prime minister, said on arriving at the summit that there were three points to address: Russia and Ukraine must open talks, the EU must show strong support for the Ukrainian […]

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EU weighs Russia sanctions as Ukraine diplomacy falters

European Union leaders were set to warn but not sanction Russia on Thursday over its military intervention in Ukraine after Moscow rebuffed Western diplomatic efforts to persuade it to pull forces in Crimea back to their bases. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov refused to meet his new Ukrainian counterpart or to launch a "contact group" to seek a solution to the crisis at talks in Paris on Wednesday despite arm-twisting by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and European colleagues. The two men will meet again in Rome on Thursday. Tension remained high in Ukraine’s southern Crimea region, where a senior United Nations envoy was surrounded by a pro-Russian crowd, threatened and forced to get back on his plane and leave the country. An emergency EU summit in Brussels is unlikely to adopt more than symbolic measures against Russia, Europe’s biggest gas supplier, because neither industrial […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple