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IEA 2014 Oil Demand Growth Forecast Weakest Since 2009

By Sarah Kent LONDON–The International Energy Agency on Tuesday cut its 2014 oil demand growth forecast to its weakest in five years, sending another bearish signal to the market as oil prices continue to tumble. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog cut its forecast for the amount it expects oil demand to increase this year by 200,000 barrels a day to just 700,000 barrels a day. Oil prices have tanked since June amid concerns over sluggish demand in a weak global economy coupled with healthy supply growth. However, the IEA said the weakness in demand growth may have reached its bottom. The organization sees demand picking up more next year, to increase by 1.1 million barrels a day. In fact, the glut in oil supply could prove more significant in sustaining market weakness. Oil production surged last month, due in part to a […]

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IEA expects oil demand to slow

PARIS, Sept. 11 (UPI) — The International Energy Agency said Thursday it cut its forecast for oil demand growth because of an economic slowdown in Europe and China. IEA published its monthly oil market report for September, saying it trimmed oil demand growth for 2014 to 900,000 barrels of oil per day and 2015 to 1.2 million bpd. IEA said in the report the assessment was made "because of a pronounced slowdown in demand growth in the second quarter of this year and a weaker outlook for Europe and China." The World Bank in June said the Chinese economy was slowing down in part because of a "structural transformation." Data from the European Union show economies are barely growing , if at all. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its oil market report it cut its demand expectations by the most in three years because North American […]

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IEA: Oil prices down on abundant supplies, slow demand growth

HOUSTON, Sept. 11 09/11/2014 Amid plentiful oil supply and weakening global economic and oil demand growth, oil prices have been easing, with front-month Brent futures slipping below $100/bbl in September for the first time in more than a year, according to the most recent Oil Market Report from the International Energy Agency . “Rising Libyan exports, an overhang of West African barrels—resulting from slower US imports—and sluggish demand from refiners in Europe and Asia took their toll on spot crude prices, deflating global benchmarks,” IEA said. West Texas Intermediate showed the biggest month‐on‐month loss due in part to unplanned refinery outages that forced a temporary slowdown in run rates while US output surged. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $98/bbl. NYMEX WTI was around $91.40/bbl.   Demand Global oil demand in the second quarter showed clear signs of weakening, as growth eased back to a near two-and-a-half year […]

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IEA Cuts 2015 Oil Demand Forecasts

The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for the rise in oil demand this year calling the recent slowdown "nothing short of remarkable." Agence France-Presse/Getty Images The International Energy Agency Thursday trimmed its forecast for the rise in oil demand this year for the third month in a row , calling the recent slowdown in demand "nothing short of remarkable." In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said it expects global oil demand to grow by 0.9 million barrels a day in 2014, a decrease of 65,000 barrels a day compared with last month’s forecast and down by 300,000 barrels a day since July. According to the IEA, oil demand growth in the second quarter was at its lowest in 2½ years, dented by economic weakness in Europe and China , a trend the agency expects will continue to weigh on demand. "While demand […]

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IEA: Energy efficiency a hidden fuel

The director of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday from Berlin energy efficiency is a hidden fuel that could support economic growth. The IEA published a study saying energy efficiency may have benefits that go beyond just cutting back on demand . "This report lays out the case for governments to invest more time in measuring the impacts of energy efficiency policies, to improve understanding of their role in boosting economic and social development and to facilitate policy design that maximizes the benefits prioritized by each country," IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement. The IEA said it’s trying to reframe the narrative of energy efficiency to show it’s a hidden fuel that can be used as a source of energy security and a builder of national wealth. The paper suggests nearly 60 percent of the economic potential from energy efficiency is unrealized through 2035 […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

Welcome to the OMR Subscriber’s website Please check that your usage of this website conforms to the licence you subscribe to at http://www.iea.org/oilmar/licenceomr.html. Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 12th August 2014 Crude prices fell in July and early August as weak OECD refinery runs in June offset concerns about escalating conflicts in Iraq, Libya and Ukraine. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was below $105/bbl on hopes that US air strikes would lower disruption risks in major OPEC producer Iraq. WTI was around $98/bbl. The global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been lowered to 1.0 mb/d on lower-than-expected 2Q14 deliveries and a weaker GDP outlook from the IMF. Growth is set to accelerate to 1.3 mb/d in 2015 as the economy improves. Baseline demand estimates have been raised to reflect new 2012 non-OECD annual data. OPEC crude oil supply rose by 300 kb/d to 30.44 mb/d in […]

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IEA Lowers 2014 Oil Demand Growth Forecast

By Summer Said World oil demand will rise less than previously thought in 2014, due to a lower outlook for the global economy and demand growth in the second quarter falling to its lowest level in more than two years, the energy watchdog said Tuesday. In its monthly oil-market report, the International Energy Agency–which advises industrialized nations on oil policies–trimmed its projection for growth in global demand this year to 1 million barrels a day, down 180,000 barrels a day, citing weaker-than-expected demand in the second quarter. "Despite armed conflict in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine, the oil market today looks better supplied than expected, with an oil glut even reported in the Atlantic basin," the report said. "Remarkably low oil deliveries in both Europe and North America helped slash this report’s estimate of global demand growth for the second quarter of 2014 to less than 700,000 barrels a day […]

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IEA: Oil demand growth forecast lowered on downgraded economic outlook

HOUSTON, Aug. 12 08/12/2014 The global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been curtailed since last month’s report to a more modest 1 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent Oil Market Report . The revision was primarily due to lower-than-expected second-quarter deliveries and downgraded macroeconomic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Demand growth is forecast to accelerate in 2015 to 1.3 million b/d as the economy improves. Global oil supply in July averaged 93 million b/d, up 230,000 b/d from a month ago and 840,000 b/d from a year ago. With a boost from Saudi Arabia and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than offsetting losses in Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria, production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 300,000 b/d to 30.44 million b/d in July, a 5-month high. The “call” on OPEC crude and stock […]

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IEA: Oil demand to rise in 2015

The International Energy Agency said Tuesday it lowered its growth forecast for global oil demand to 1 million barrels per day in part due to weaker economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund. For the United States, one of the world’s leading economies, the IMF said in a July report parts of the economy were still struggling to gain traction, though overall growth for 2015 should "accelerate to the fastest annual pace since 2005" barring any unforeseen shocks. Globally, IEA said in its oil market report for August that "as the economy improves in 2015, [oil] demand is set to accelerate by 1.3 million bpd." In July, the Paris-based group said oil supplies increased by 840,000 bpd on the back of a 1.2 million bpd increase from producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. That helped offset declines among most OPEC members, though IEA said it was an […]

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IEA warns U.S. on energy security

Energy security is more about diversity than abundance in any one particular resource, the head of the IEA warned the United States. International Energy Agency Executive Director Marian van der Hoeven told delegates gathered in Washington for the annual conference of the Energy Information Administration there may be trouble on the horizon for the United States. "Energy security is about much more than supply, and it’s about more than the here and now," she warned . Advancements in drilling technology have given exploration and production companies access to oil and natural gas reserves previously inaccessible. This, in turn, has moved the United States to the top of the list of global energy producers. The peak likely won’t last much beyond the 2030s, the executive director warned. While oil and natural gas are abundant now , policymakers on Capitol Hill need to look to the future energy scenario. "It’s in […]

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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014

Oil futures surged in mid-June by $5/bbl to a nine-month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent as Islamist forces gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed their gains on confidence that Baghdad’s southern fields would remain untouched and improved prospects for a recovery in Libyan exports. Brent last traded at $108/bbl, WTI at $102/bbl. OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 mb/d, as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The ‘call’ on OPEC for 2H14 was cut by 350 kb/d to 30.6 mb/d on improved non-OPEC supply and lower demand, and is forecast to dip to 29.8 mb/d in 2015 from 29.9 mb/d in 2014. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2015, down slightly on 2013 and 2014 forecast […]

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Oil Demand Seen by IEA Rising Fastest Since ’10 on China

Global oil demand will rise at the fastest pace in five years in 2015 as China leads gains in emerging economies, the International Energy Agency said. World oil consumption will increase next year by 1.4 million barrels a day, the agency said in its first monthly report to assess 2015. The rate of growth will be the fastest since 2010. It’s also higher than a projected increase of 1.2 million a day in supplies from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said. Demand growth will be led by China and other countries outside the 34-member Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. While prices have retreated in the past month as threats to supplies in Libya and Iraq abate, they remain “historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet,” according to the report. “The global economy is still expected to […]

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IEA Warns Little Room for Complacency in Oil Markets in 2015

Geopolitical tensions and the shaky economic recovery means there is little room for complacency in oil market in the next 12 months, the International Energy Agency warned Friday. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog forecast rising demand growth and a steady increase in supply from non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for 2015. It said global demand for oil will accelerate to 1.4 million barrels a day from 1.2 million barrels a day this year, while oil supply from outside OPEC will increase by around 1.2 million barrels a day, continuing the trend of robust non-OPEC production. However, the IEA warned that the risks associated with its 2015 demand forecast are "particularly high" due to the uncertain global economic recovery and geopolitical tensions in a host of countries, including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, are adding to the macroeconomic uncertainties. The same political […]

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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 13th June 2014 Oil futures prices for Brent rose above $112/bbl on 12 June, the highest level this year, in the wake of a bold military campaign by Sunni insurgents in Iraq and continued supply outages in Libya.An apparent build in China’s crude strategic reserve in April and May, at an average 1.2 mb/d, is also strengthening markets. Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, to 92.8 mb/d, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mb/d in 1Q14 to a high of 94 mb/d in […]

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IEA Investment Report – Stumbling on the Real Story

Recently, the IEA published  a “Special Report” called  World Energy Investment Outlook . Lets’s start with things I agree with: 1.  World needs $48 trillion in investment to meet its energy needs to 2035.  This is certainly true, if we assume, as  the IEA assumes , that world economic growth will actually improve a bit, from 3.3% per year in the 1990 to 2011 period to 3.6% per year in the 2011 to 2035 period. It is likely that the growth in investment needs will be even higher than the IEA indicates. In my view, this is a  CYA report . The IEA sees trouble ahead. There is no way that investment of the needed amount (which is likely far more than $48 trillion) can be met. With the publication of this report, the IEA can say, “We told you so. You didn’t invest enough. That is why energy supply […]

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IEA Says the Party’s Over

The International Energy Agency has just released a new special report called “ World Energy Investment Outlook ” that should send policy makers screaming and running for the exits—if they are willing to read between the lines and view the report in the context of current financial and geopolitical trends. This is how the press agency UPI begins its summary :  It will require $48 trillion in investments through 2035 to meet the world’s growing energy needs, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday from Paris. IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement the reliability and sustainability of future energy supplies depends on a high level of investment. “But this won’t materialize unless there are credible policy frameworks in place as well as stable access to long-term sources of finance,” she said. “Neither of these conditions should be taken for granted.” Here’s a bit of context […]

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IEA: $48 trillion needed to satisfy global energy demand

It will require $48 trillion in investments through 2035 to meet the world’s growing energy needs, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday from Paris. IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement the reliability and sustainability of future energy supplies depends on a high level of investment. "But this won’t materialize unless there are credible policy frameworks in place as well as stable access to long-term sources of finance," she said. "Neither of these conditions should be taken for granted." She said there was a real risk that any investments in global energy could be misdirected because the environmental impacts of various resources may not be reflected in the overall costs. The IEA’s report says around 15 percent of annual investments target renewable energy resources, while the bulk of spending, more than $1 trillion, is directed at fossil fuels. More than half of […]

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IEA Expects World to Rely More on Middle East Oil

A top energy watchdog said the world will need more Middle Eastern oil in the next decade, as the current U.S. boom wanes. But the International Energy Agency warned that Persian Gulf producers may still fail to fill the gap, risking higher oil prices. In its first update to the agency’s energy investment outlook in more than a decade, the IEA—which represents some of the world’s largest consumer nations—said it sees "growth in oil demand [becoming] steadily more reliant on investment in the Middle East." Surging American production from tight oil—extracted from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota—has led the agency and other oil-market analysts to predict the U.S. could leapfrog the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, by 2020. That has triggered debate in Washington about easing a long-standing ban on most crude exports from American shores. It has also engendered hope of […]

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New Energy Report from I.E.A. Forecasts Decline in North American Oil Supply

National Public Radio’s “ Morning Edition ” reported this morning: NPR’s Business News starts with the outlook for oil. This is a change of course – the International Energy Agency has released a report on global energy investment. And this group predicts the United States will have to rely more heavily on Middle East oil in the coming years, as North American sources start to dry up a little bit. U.S. energy production has boomed recently, much of it coming from oil and gas extracted from shale. But the IEA says U.S. production will start to lose steam around 2020, and that would put more bargaining power back in the hands of OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia. This is quite interesting, given that in 2012, the IEA forecast that the U.S. would overtake Saudia Arabia in oil production by 2020, and would be a net oil exporter by […]

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IEA Expects World to Rely More on Middle East Oil

A top energy watchdog said the world will need more Middle Eastern oil in the next decade, as the current U.S. boom wanes. But the International Energy Agency warned that Persian Gulf producers may still fail to fill the gap, risking higher oil prices. In its first update to the agency’s energy investment outlook in more than a decade, the IEA–which represents some of the world’s largest consumer nations–said it sees "growth in oil demand [becoming] steadily more reliant on investment in the Middle East." Surging American production from tight oil–extracted from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota–has led the agency and other oil-market analysts to predict the U.S. could leapfrog the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, by 2020. That has triggered debate in Washington about easing a long-standing ban on most crude exports from American shores. It has also […]

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Energy agency predicts oil shortage unless supply boosted

Industrialised countries could be facing the prospect of an oil supply squeeze and higher prices later this year unless production is lifted, according to a report just released by the International Energy Agency. In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA says recent production gains will not be sufficient to meet market needs in the second half of the year when consumption picks up. "Crude prices remain elevated and forecast balances call for a significant rise in OPEC production from current levels for the second half of the year," the IEA said. The IEA says OPEC nations will have to increase third quarter production by another 900,000 barrels per day from current levels to 30.7 million barrels per day to meet the expected demand. "While OPEC has more than enough capacity to deliver, it remains to be seen whether it will manage to overcome the above-ground hurdles that have […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

il prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl. Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report , to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.  Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

Welcome to the OMR Subscriber’s website Please check that your usage of this website conforms to the licence you subscribe to at http://www.iea.org/oilmar/licenceomr.html. Please complete our reader survey to win a copy of the MTOMR 2014: www.surveymonkey.com/s/IEA_OMR_Survey Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 15th May 2014 Oil prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl. Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report , to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.  Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of […]

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International Energy Agency – Oil Market Report

Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 11th April 2014 Crude oil prices were range-bound in March, with supply outages in the MENA and Russia-Ukraine tensions countering seasonally weaker demand. By early April, market expectations of an imminent restart of Libyan exports pressured Brent prices lower. Brent last traded at $107.75/bbl.   The forecast of global demand growth has been marginally trimmed to 1.3 mb/d for 2014, reflecting downward adjustments to the projection of Russian demand. The absolute demand estimate remains roughly unchanged, as upward revisions to baseline non-OECD Asian demand counterbalance lower Russian growth. Global supplies plunged by 1.2 mb/d to 91.75 mb/d in March, led by steeply lower OPEC output , but remained up by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year, as non‐OPEC growth of 1.98 mb/d more […]

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IEA Trims 2014 Oil Demand Growth Forecast

The International Energy Agency on Friday highlighted ongoing "elevated" risks in the oil market, as it trimmed its forecast for an increase in demand this year following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but also warned of lower oil production. In its closely watched monthly report, the Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its 2014 forecast for Russian oil demand by 55,000 barrels a day to total 3.5 million barrels a day following the country’s annexation of Crimea last month and subsequent downgrades of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s views of the country’s growth. Further economic sanctions and pressure on Russia’s economy could cut its oil demand by a further 150,000 barrels a day this year, the IEA said. The IEA’s overall forecast for the increase in oil demand this year was cut by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day. The IEA also lowered […]

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IEA Says OPEC Will Need to Pump More Crude in Second Half

OPEC will need to pump more crude in the second half of the year to meet demand after its production plunged to a five-month low in March, according to the International Energy Agency . Supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “plummeted” by 890,000 barrels a day to 29.62 million barrels a day in March, the Paris-based IEA said today in its monthly oil market report. That’s below OPEC’s collective 30 million production target and means the group will have to increase output in the second half of the year, it said. “OPEC supply actually registered a steep drop in March from February highs, but this setback looks likely to be short-lived,” the IEA, an adviser to oil-consuming nations, said. “Prospects for OPEC output are also on the rise – though not without considerable political risk.” Brent crude oil prices have dropped 3.2 percent this year to trade […]

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IEA Highlights Increases in Oil Supply

A relentless increase in oil supply from the U.S. and Canada and a surprise surge in Iraqi crude production last month is offsetting demand pressures bought about by the cold winter in the U.S. and geopolitical concerns over the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said Friday. "While international tensions may be on the rise, pressure on oil markets, ceteris paribus, seems set to ease," the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its closely-watched monthly report on the oil market. The cold snap in the U.S., which has seen commercial oil inventories in industrialized countries plummet this winter to hit a whopping 154 million barrels below the seasonal average last month, is abating. Meanwhile, oil supply looks comfortable. The IEA expects supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to rise by 2 million barrels a day in the first quarter of […]

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IEA says supply surge to ease oil tensions

The International Energy Agency expects the pressure on global oil markets to ease in spite of rising geopolitical tensions because of surging supply from Iraq and other producers. “While international tensions may be on the rise, the pressure on oil markets . . . seems set to ease”, the Paris-based group said in its widely followed monthly report, noting the extreme cold weather that had dug into US oil stocks in January had abated. US oil prices rose above $100 for the first time in five months in February because of exceptionally cold weather in the US and robust refining demand. Brent, the international marker, also rose, supported by fresh supply outages in Libya and the tensions in the Ukraine. However, in recent weeks prices have eased back. Nymex April West Texas Intermediate is currently trading at $98.36 a barrel, while ICE Brent April is at $107.44. The IEA, which advises Western governments […]

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Despite Shale, Middle East Remains Key to Oil Demand

The US shale revolution has helped reshape the global energy market, but Middle Eastern oil will remain vital for meeting future Asian energy demand, said IEA’s Fatih Birol. The U.S. shale revolution has helped reshape the global energy market, but Middle Eastern oil will remain vital for meeting future Asian energy demand, Fatih Birol, chief economist for the International Energy Agency (IEA), told attendees Feb. 21 at an event at Rice University in Houston. The significant growth that has occurred in recent years in U.S. unconventional oil production surpassed initial estimates by the IEA, which initially forecast that the United States would overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer in 2017. This shift is now expected to occur next year, according IEA’s 2013 World Energy Outlook. Despite this growth, Middle East oil will still be needed to meet global oil demand in Asia, said […]

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Non-OPEC production lauded by IEA

– Production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries helped with the increase in oil output since last year, the IEA said Thursday from Paris. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report oil supplies since last January are up because of "steep growth" from non-OPEC members. The IEA, however, said global oil supplies in January declined by 290,000 barrels per day to 92.1 million bpd because of lower non-OPEC output. OPEC in its monthly market report, published Wednesday, said oil production from the Americas meant demand for OPEC crude from those markets was down. In terms of production, it said winter operations in the Bakken oil reserve area in North Dakota, the second-largest oil producing state in the United States, decreased because colder temperatures "freezes" the more viscous type of oil found there. For OPEC members, IEA said oil supply increased marginally […]

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International Energy Agency urges Opec to sustain oil production

Opec will need to sustain production at its current level of almost 30m barrels a day if badly depleted oil inventories in the developed world are to be rebuilt, according to the International Energy Agency. In its widely followed monthly report, the west’s energy watchdog said stronger than expected demand in the US and other industrialised nations had drained oil stocks to the lowest level in five years, tightening the market and supporting prices. Oil inventories in the OECD group of countries dropped by 1.5m barrels a day in the last three months of 2013, the steepest quarterly decline since 1999. “Far from drowning in oil, markets have had to dig deeply into inventories to meet unexpectedly strong demand,” the report said. Rising oil production from North America has led many forecasters to predict a supply glut and a decline […]

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International Energy Agency – Oil Market Report

Oil markets rallied in mid-January as bitterly cold weather in the US pushed up demand for heating fuels, but on average benchmark prices weakened month-on-month (m-o-m). Upcoming seasonal refinery maintenance later put downward pressure on markets before prices rebounded in early February, with ICE Brent futures last trading at $109.25/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $101.25/bbl. Total OECD industry stocks plummeted by a further 56.8 mb in December, taking 4Q13 OECD stock draws to 1.5 mb/d, the steepest quarterly decline since 4Q99. At 2 559 mb, total OECD oil stocks stood 103 mb below their five year average at the end of December, while product stocks covered 28.8 days of forward demand. Global supplies fell by 290 kb/d in January, to 92.1 mb/d, on lower non-OPEC output . Supplies were up 1.50 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), however, as steep growth of 1.90 mb/d in non‐OPEC output and OPEC NGLs surpassed a drop of 390 kb/d in OPEC […]

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Oil Inventories Fell Most Since 1999 on Demand in IEA Estimate

Oil inventories in advanced economies tumbled in the fourth quarter by the most since 1999 because of “surprising robustness” of demand in the U.S. and other developed nations, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA, a Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations, also boosted forecasts for global fuel demand this year and the amount of crude that will be required from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Stockpiles of crude and refined products shrank by 1.5 million barrels a day in the last three months of 2013 to end the year at 2.6 billion, their lowest level since 2008, the IEA said. “Far from drowning in oil, markets have had to dig deeply into inventories to meet unexpectedly strong demand,” the agency said. “A glut is looking increasingly elusive. U.S. demand strength likely reflects in part a structural response to the country’s supply bounty,” as surging shale oil output lowers […]

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IEA Sees Higher Oil Demand on Developed-Nation Economic Recovery

Global oil demand will increase more this year than previously forecast, the International Energy Agency said. A ban on U.S. crude exports may crimp output growth, the Paris-based group said. World consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent, to 92.5 million barrels a day, the IEA said today in its Oil Market Report. The increase of 90,000 barrels a day from last month is the first year of annual demand growth in developed nations since 2010, it said. U.S. restrictions on exports may mean its surging domestic production hits a “crude wall” that curbs further expansion, the IEA said. “Upside risks to oil demand growth are much more relevant this year than the same period last year, where concerns were for downside risks to materialize,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London , said by e-mail yesterday. “Demand-supply metrics in the oil […]

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IEA: Global oil demand for fourth-quarter 2013 revised upward

Global oil consumption during fourth-quarter 2013 was adjusted to 92.1 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent Oil Market Report. The total, which marks a 135,000-b/d upward revision from last month’s OMR report, was adjusted because of exceptionally strong US demand since October, partly offset by reduced Chinese fourth-quarter 2013 demand. Global demand for 2014 is expected to rise by 1.3 million b/d to 92.5 million b/d from the 1.2 million b/d rise now envisaged for 2013, to 91.2 million b/d, “an acceleration supported by the likelihood of stronger macroeconomic momentum as the year progresses, IEA said. Led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, crude oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rebounded by 310,000 b/d to 29.82 million b/d in December, reversing 4 months of declines. Iraq was the only member to post a decline. Non-OPEC supplies for the month fell by […]

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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

  Crude oil markets firmed in December on seasonally stronger winter demand in the Atlantic basin. Brent prices were supported by continued supply outages in Libya while WTI reflected a surge in domestic refinery throughputs. Prices eased in January, though, with WTI last trading at $93.70/bbl and Brent at $106.35/bbl. The estimate of 4Q13 global oil demand was raised by 135 kb/d on unexpectedly strong US deliveries, partly offset by curtailments in China and elsewhere. For 2013 as a whole, growth is estimated at around 1.2 mb/d, accelerating to 1.3 mb/d in 2014 as the economy continues to recover. Global supplies inched down by 25 kb/d month-on-month in December to 92.23 mb/d, with a seasonal fall in […]

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IEA Sees Higher Oil Demand on Developed-Nation Economic Recovery

Global oil demand will increase more this year than previously forecast, the International Energy Agency said. A ban on U.S. crude exports may crimp output growth, the Paris-based group said. World consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent, to 92.5 million barrels a day, the IEA said today in its Oil Market Report. The increase of 90,000 barrels a day from last month is the first year of annual demand growth in developed nations since 2010, it said. U.S. restrictions on exports may mean its surging domestic production hits a “crude wall” that curbs further expansion, the IEA said. “Upside risks to oil demand growth are much more relevant this year than the same period last year, where concerns were for downside risks to materialize,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London , said by e-mail yesterday. “Demand-supply metrics in the oil […]

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IEA Warns U.S. Oil Output Growth Could Hit a Wall

Surging U.S. oil production could hit a wall in the coming years if the country maintains its ban on crude exports, the International Energy Agency said. America’s crude output has surged in recent years, driven by a boom in shale oil production. Last year, the country’s oil production rose 15%, the fastest absolute annual growth in any country in 20 years. By next year, the IEA estimates imported oil of a similar quality to the crude produced from shale could be almost entirely backed out of U.S. coastal refineries. However, the U.S. tightly regulates exports of its oil, limiting the market for its new oil supply. "The growing volumes of light tight oil that cannot leave North America are increasingly posing a challenge to industry, putting the spotlight on the U.S. crude oil export ban," the IEA said in its monthly oil market report. For now, refinery, pipeline and […]

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US oil demand growth outstrips China in 2013 – IEA

Shale Gas Costing 2/3 Less Than OPEC Oil Converges With U.S. US demand for oil grew by more than China’s last year for the first time since 1999 according to the International Energy Agency, in a startling indication of how abundant energy supplies are driving an economic resurgence in the US. The IEA – the rich world’s energy club whose forecasts are the gold standard for the energy market – said US oil demand grew by 390,000 barrels a day or 2 per cent last year, reversing years of steady decline. Chinese demand grew by 295,000 b/d, the weakest in at least six years. Oil demand figures are closely followed as indicators of economic growth, because use of fuels such as gasoline and diesel indicate the strength of industrial and consumer activity.  As China’s economy has boomed over the past decade its oil demand has surged, while US consumption […]

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IEA sees non-OPEC oil supply growing

The International Energy Agency said Wednesday from Paris it expected crude oil demand to increase at the same time production from non-OPEC members rises. The IEA published its oil market report for December. It raised its estimate of global crude oil demand for 2013 because economies in the 34-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development performed well during the third quarter of the year. OECD members include the United States and Canada, two countries leading in terms of oil production from states outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC, in its monthly market report for December, said it expected OECD economies to grow 1.9 percent next year, compared to the 1.2 percent growth rate for 2013. World economic growth is expected to increase from 2.9 percent in 2013 to 3.5 percent next year. Economic growth typically translates to a higher demand for petroleum […]

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IEA Boosts 2014 Global Oil Demand Estimate Amid U.S. Recovery

Global oil demand in 2014 will be higher than previously forecast, after consumption in the U.S. rebounded to its strongest level in five years, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA forecast today in its monthly oil market report that demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, to 92.4 million a day next year, raising its projection from last month by 240,000 a day. U.S. fuel use rose above 20 million barrels a day in November for the first time since 2008, according to preliminary data. While the agency boosted estimates for the amount of crude OPEC will need to supply, “making room” for the potential return of Iranian exports “could be a challenge for other producers” in the group, it said. “The geopoliticals are now bearish, while the fundamentals are bullish,” Michael Lynch , president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, […]

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IEA and Emerging Countries to Collaborate More Closely

The International Energy Agency and six emerging economies including China and India agreed to pursue stronger cooperation, the IEA said on Wednesday in a bid to strengthen ties with non-members whose share in global oil demand has grown rapidly. The initiative to form an “association” between the West’s energy watchdog, combining 28 developed economies, and non-members is aimed at boosting ties on energy security, data sharing and energy market analysis, the Paris-based group said. China, the world’s top energy consumer, India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia have signed the joint declaration, a non-legally binding agreement. As oil demand growth has shifted from developed to emerging countries over the past decade, the IEA has looked to non-members to preserve its importance as an international agency. “Energy governance is an increasingly important element of the global energy economy,” Maria van der Hoeven, the […]

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IEA World Outlook: Six Key Trends Shaping the Energy Future

khosla-biofuels-vin.jpg Thomas K. Grose Thanks to “fracking,” the United States is reaching the top spot among world oil producers sooner than expected, and is “well on its way to realizing the American dream” of energy independence, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday. “But this does not mean that the world is on the cusp of a new era of oil abundance,” the IEA warned in its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook. Instead, the agency predicted that no other country will replicate the United States’ success with hydraulic fracturing and other unconventional technologies that have led to the North American boom in oil and natural gas production. (See related ” Interactive: Breaking Fuel From Rock ,” ” The Great Shale Gas Rush ,” and ” The New Oil Landscape .”) And by the mid-2020s, the Middle East—the world’s only source of low-cost oil—will again be unchallenged as the […]

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