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Oil Surplus to Persist in 2016 as IEA Sees Demand Growth Slowing

Global oil markets will remain oversupplied next year as demand growth slows and Iranian exports are poised to recover with the lifting of sanctions, the International Energy Agency said. While supplies outside OPEC will decline in 2016 in response to lower prices, demand growth will ease from this year’s five-year high amid a weaker outlook for the world economy, allowing the crude surplus to endure, the IEA predicted. Iran could swell the glut if restrictions on its sales are removed with the completion of a nuclear accord, while Iraq has replaced the U.S. as the biggest source of new supplies as its output reaches record levels. “The market may be off balance for a while longer,” the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in its monthly report. “A projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels — should international sanctions be […]

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Oil glut to persist as global growth demand slows: IEA

A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. A global oil supply glut will persist through 2016 as demand growth slows from a five-year high and key OPEC producers maintain near-record output, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, even as low prices curb supply outside OPEC. The IEA, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, said in a monthly report that world oil demand will rise by 1.21 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2016, down 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast. "A projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels – should international sanctions be eased – are likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016," the Paris-based IEA said. A drop in oil prices because of abundant supply to just over $50 a barrel – half the level of June 2014 – has […]

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IEA Sees Oil Market Remaining Oversupplied Next Year

A top energy watchdog Tuesday warned that oil markets would likely remain oversupplied next year, as oil demand growth slows down amid an expected return of Iranian oil. The assessment by the International Energy Agency–which represents some of the world’s largest oil consumers–is somewhat less upbeat than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which Monday said oil markets would start to rebalance themselves next year amid declining U.S. production. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the IEA cut its forecast for oil demand growth for next year by about 200,000 barrels a day compared with its previous assessment in September. It now sees world oil consumption rising by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016, compared with a five-year-high growth of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2015. “A projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels-–should international […]

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Oil Market Report

mb/d World Oil Demand *Please note that these Highlights are from the latest Oil Market Report, which is released in full to subscribers only – according to this schedule each month . Non subscribers get free access to the latest Highlights on this schedule, however the full Oil Market Report is released to the public two weeks after the report is released to subscribers. If you would like to receive the full report with accompanying charts and graphs on the day of publication please subscribe or contact the subscription manager . After a relatively stable month in September, crude oil price benchmarks rallied in early October on expectations of lower US output and rising tension in the Middle East. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was trading at $51.90/bbl with NYMEX WTI lower at $48.80/bbl. Global demand growth is expected to slow from its five-year high of 1.8 […]

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IEA: Age of LNG in question

International Energy Agency says short-term planning may jeopardize growth in the LNG industry. File photo by Stephen Shaver/UPI TOKYO, Sept. 16 (UPI) — Short-term planning from energy policymakers might keep liquefied natural gas off the global stage, the IEA director said during a visit to Tokyo. "If it can compete, then there is a great chance for gas to become a major and relatively clean contributor to energy security," Fatih Birol , the executive director of the International Energy Agency, said during a speech from Japan. "But the current low prices provide only a temporary window of opportunity — an opportunity that policy makers and the industry must seize." The IEA said liquefied natural gas, a super-cooled and denser product with more deliverability options, represents "a golden opportunity" for Asian economies. Asian demand for natural gas is expected to grow steadily through the end of the decade, according to […]

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New IEA chief Birol calls for ‘partnership’ with China on first official trip

The then-chief economist of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol speaks during a question and answer session at the Oil & Money conference in London in this file photo taken on October 1, 2013. The International Energy Agency’s new chief called on Wednesday for a "greater partnership" between his organization and China, the world’s largest energy consumer, in his first official trip. Fatih Birol, who took over the top post at the Paris-based IEA this month, told an audience of Chinese officials and foreign diplomats in Beijing that a top priority during his four-year tenure will be to strengthen ties with emerging powers that are non-members. "China is at the top of the list," he said. China is the world’s second largest oil importer, although it has been challenging the United States more and more for the No.1 spot, with its crude buys and the strength of its demand […]

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IEA: Long, circuitous rebalancing of oil market begins

In its August Oil Market Report the International Energy Agency’s forecast shows stronger-than-anticipated global oil demand and non-OPEC supply growth swinging into contraction next year. A rebalancing has clearly begun, IEA said. However, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016—suggesting global inventories will pile up further, the agency noted. Demand IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow 1.6 million b/d in 2015, 300,000 b/d above last month’s report and averaging 94.2 million b/d, as economic growth solidifies and consumers response to lower oil prices . “This represents the biggest growth spurt in 5 years and a dramatic uptick on a demand increase of just [700,000] b/d in 2014,” IEA said. IEA’s latest 2016 forecast also rises 400,000 b/d to 95.6 million b/d—an above-trend 1.4 million b/d gain—on higher baseline numbers and expectations of a more robust economy. The second-quarter […]

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IEA Sees Oil Glut Persisting Despite Soaring Demand

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) – World oil demand is expanding at its fastest pace in five years thanks to rebounding economic growth and low prices, but global oversupply will last through 2016, the West’s energy watchdog said on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that it was steeply raising its demand growth outlook for this year and 2016, and expected non-OPEC supply growth to decline next year, with U.S. producers hardest hit. "While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 – suggesting global inventories will pile up further," the Paris-based IEA said. The view from the IEA chimes with that of the U.S. government, which on Tuesday lowered U.S. production forecasts, signalling that a 60 percent rout in benchmark prices since last summer may finally be weighing on shale output. […]

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IEA sees oil glut persisting in 2016 despite soaring demand

A car is filled with gasoline at a gas station pump in Carlsbad, California August 4, 2015. World oil demand is growing at its fastest pace in five years thanks to rebounding economic growth and low prices, but global oversupply is so great that it will last through 2016, the West’s energy watchdog said on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that it was steeply raising its demand growth outlook for this year and 2016, and expected non-OPEC supply growth to decline next year, with U.S. producers hardest hit. "While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 – suggesting global inventories will pile up further," the Paris-based IEA said. The view from the IEA chimes with that of the U.S. government, which on Tuesday lowered U.S. production forecasts, signaling that […]

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