Category: IEA

Woodcut showing a soothsayer in front of a king. We can see some of the signs in the nature the soothsayer uses: stars, fishes and sounds from the mountains. Creator: Olaus Magnus 1555. Source: "Historia de gentibus septentrionalibus", book 3 via Wikimedia Commons. Recent developments are beginning to undermine the supremacy of the world’s long-running energy information duopoly and its perennially optimistic narrative. Policymakers, investors and the public should take heed. Until now most energy price and supply forecasts and analyses were based predominately on information from the globe’s two leading energy information agencies: the  U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) , the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, and the  International Energy Agency (IEA) , a consortium of 29 countries originally formed in response to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo to provide better information on world energy supplies to its members. Both agencies provide forecasts that are […]

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Abu Dhabi (Platts)–20Jan2015/655 am EST/1155 GMT Flat global demand for oil and the wild card of shale oil development continued to cast long shadows over the global oil market, the International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said Tuesday. "There is no growth in demand, and that has to do with the global economy," she told reporters on the sidelines of the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi. "We do not see that recovering," she added. Van der Hoeven described the rise of North American shale oil and gas production in recent years as "a game changer" for global energy markets. It was too early to tell whether low oil prices would trigger deflation in advanced economies, but the IEA was monitoring the situation closely, she said. The IEA was also keeping a watch on the impact of falling oil prices on gas markets, she said. […]

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mb/dWorld Oil Demand1Q20122Q20123Q20124Q20121Q20132Q20133Q20134Q20131Q20142Q20143Q20144Q20141Q20152Q20153Q20154Q2015868890929496© OECD/IEA 2014 World Oil Demand *Please note that these Highlights are from the latest Oil Market Report, which is released in full to subscribers only – according to this schedule each month . Non subscribers get free access to the latest Highlights on this schedule, however the full Oil Market Report is released to the public two weeks after the report is released to subscribers. If you would like to receive the full report with accompanying charts and graphs on the day of publication please subscribe or contact the subscription manager . The price of oil continued to collapse into January as rising supplies collided with weak demand growth and OPEC maintained its commitment to not cut production. Brent crude futures last traded at $48.40/bbl, near a six-year low. NYMEX WTI was at $47.75/bbl. Macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand growth, with 4Q14 deliveries estimated […]

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Non-OPEC oil producers will increase output this year at a slower rate than previously forecast, aiding a recovery in crude prices, the International Energy Agency said. The adviser lowered its non-OPEC supply growth estimate by 350,000 barrels a day, the first cut since the 2015 forecast was introduced in July. Half the cut is from Colombian output while effects on U.S. production are so far “marginal,” it said. The slow-down in non-OPEC output will lead to a “rebalancing” of currently over-supplied global markets in the second half, reviving prices, the agency said. “Companies have been taking an axe to their budgets, postponing or cancelling new projects,” the Paris-based IEA, which advises 29 nations on energy policy , said in its monthly market report. “A price recovery, barring any major disruption, may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn.” Oil prices have collapsed almost 60 […]

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Highlights This article analyses historical IEA forecasts of global energy consumption. Three major forecasting challenges are observed and briefly analysed: Overprediction of oil consumption Underprediction of coal consumption Underprediction of other renewables Introduction The International Energy Agency tackles a monumental task every year when compiling its World Energy Outlook report: forecasting global energy consumption over the next 2-3 decades. Over the years, the IEA has taken quite a lot of flak from critics with 20/20 hindsight about fairly large deviations between forecasted and actual numbers. For example, the IEA failed to forecast the plateau in conventional oil production which started about one decade ago and generally underpredicted the expansion rate of modern renewables. But just how large are these deviations? This article will take a quantitative look at 15 years of IEA World Energy Outlooks (available  here ) and compare the forecasts to actual data from the BP Statistical Review to get […]

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URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/136362/IEA_Slow_Demand_Rising_Supply_Put_Further_Pressure_On_Oil_Price Oil prices are likely to come under further downward pressure, IEA says, as it cuts its outlook for demand growth in 2015 and predicts healthy non-OPEC supply gains will aggravate a global oil glut. LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Oil prices are likely to come under further downward pressure, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as it cut its outlook for demand growth in 2015 and predicted healthy non-OPEC supply gains would aggravate a global oil glut. Oil prices have fallen by 45 percent since June with the sell-off gaining pace after OPEC decided last month to keep its output target unchanged. The IEA said that if OPEC maintained production levels, the global oversupply would reach 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2015, when demand will be seasonally weak. The agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialised countries, cut its outlook for […]

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LONDON — The downdraft in oil prices showed no sign of abating on Friday. The main international benchmark, Brent crude, fell about 3 percent to about $61.80 barrel, a five-year low. That dip came a day after the American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, fell below the psychologically significant $60 a barrel level in the United States for the first time since 2009. The International Energy Agency added to downward price pressures on Friday by cutting its forecast for global demand for crude oil in 2015. For now, analysts say, there seems to be no safety net for oil prices. “In the very short term prices can go lower; the market is weighted to very bearish sentiment,” Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects, a London-based research firm, said Friday. European stocks fell on Friday, posting their biggest weekly loss since mid-2011 as energy stocks were hurt by the […]

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Trimmed oil demand forecast slams crude oil prices in an already weak market. (UPI Photo/Monika Graff) The IEA said in its market report for December the outlook ahead was weaker than previously expected. The outlook for 2015 demand growth was trimmed by 230,000 barrels per day to just under 1 million bpd because of lower expectations about the Russian economy and other oil-exporting countries impacted by the bear market for crude oil . That word sent oil prices reeling in a market already battered by low demand expectations outlined in the December market report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent, the global benchmark, shed more than $1.20 per barrel for the January contract to trade at $62.46 early Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. index, passed a new threshold low to trade down $1.30 to near $58.50 for January delivery. Oil prices are at a point where […]

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mb/dWorld Oil Demand1Q20122Q20123Q20124Q20121Q20132Q20133Q20134Q20131Q20142Q20143Q20144Q20141Q20152Q20153Q20154Q2015868890929496© OECD/IEA 2014 World Oil Demand *Please note that these Highlights are from the latest Oil Market Report, which is released in full to subscribers only – according to this schedule each month . Non subscribers get free access to the latest Highlights on this schedule, however the full Oil Market Report is released to the public two weeks after the report is released to subscribers. If you would like to receive the full report with accompanying charts and graphs on the day of publication please subscribe or contact the subscription manager . Oil prices continued to plunge in November and into early December. The selloff gained pace after OPEC on 27 November decided to keep its output target unchanged. ICE Brent was last trading at a five-year low of $64.05/bbl, down more than 40% from June, and NYMEX WTI at $60.45/bbl. The outlook for global oil demand […]

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Global oil demand next year will be weaker than previously estimated and supply from non-OPEC producers will be bigger, the International Energy Agency said. Consumption will expand by 230,000 barrels a day less than estimated in November, the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in a report today. Output from nations outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will grow at a faster pace than the agency predicted last month. Production rising faster than demand could strain some nations’ ability to store by the middle of next year, it predicted. The agency cut projections because the economies of producer nations are being hurt by tumbling prices, the IEA said. Most of the reduction in next year’s estimate is attributable to Russia , where sanctions are hobbling growth, it said. Brent crude costs that collapsed 43 percent this year are too low for 10 of OPEC’s 12 members to […]

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