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OPEC’s Problem: There Is No Minister of Shale

When Saudi Arabia launched a global oil-price war last year, most market players assumed America’s high-cost, financially fragile shale producers would be first to retreat. Some retreat. American companies have been quick to idle rigs and lay off workers, but U.S. onshore oil production has gone up since last fall, not down. As oil ministers from member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet this week, they are grappling with the fact that the world’s new swing producer is a very different animal from their traditional competitors. Shale-oil companies have more in common with the technology startups of Silicon Valley than the big, often state-controlled, integrated oil companies that dominate global oil markets. They are smaller, more nimble, take more risks and are more tied to the ebb and flow of the capital markets. This agility has enabled them to boost productivity, raise cash, and so far […]

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How Long Can OPEC Maintain Its Current Strategy?

The six-month clock is up. OPEC is convening this week in Vienna, as it does every six months, to discuss and decide on how the group will coordinate. The November 2014 meeting was one of the most widely covered in years. After leaving its collective output quota unchanged for several consecutive meetings in a row, much of the world watched for a major policy change. The glut of oil had led to a crash in prices, falling from well over $100 per barrel, down to the $70 range. As it had in the past, surely the cartel would pull the production lever downwards, switching off a million barrels per day or so in order to stop the bleeding? That decision never came. In a move that shocked the oil markets, and enraged many of OPEC’s own members, production levels were not touched. Saudi Arabia looked into the history books […]

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OPEC finds oil output consensus: ‘Don’t rock the boat’

VIENNA OPEC is set to carry on pumping oil nearly flat-out for months more, content that last year’s shock market therapy has revived moribund demand and knocked back growing competition. With oil prices having stabilized, for now, at around $65 a barrel, some $20 off their January lows, there’s little appetite within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to modify production limits, as some analysts have suggested is an outside possibility. "There is consensus among Gulf OPEC countries, and others, to keep the ceiling unchanged," a senior Gulf OPEC delegate told Reuters late on Tuesday after an informal meeting of the four core Gulf Arab OPEC members earlier in the day. The group meets on Friday following a two-day seminar featuring the chief executives of the world’s biggest energy groups, including BP ( BP.L ) and Exxon ( XOM.N ), companies whose fortunes have been abruptly altered by […]

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Is OPEC About to Step Up Production?

Could there be some real news out of OPEC? The global oil market has been pretty clear that it doesn’t expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make any adjustments to its production quota, which currently stands at 30 million barrels a day, when its members meet in Vienna on Friday. There is the old refrain about OPEC cutting its production quota so as to push up global prices. OPEC members have said they’ll consider a cut if other major producers such as Russia also agree to cut back. That has all but been ruled out. Now, however, there is a slight shift in the other direction. Maybe OPEC might double down, and increase its production quota? In recent days, a number of analysts have started to suggest that’s exactly what the OPEC members may decide. If they do, it would at best be symbolic, as its members […]

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Russia, Non-OPEC Producers Met with OPEC Last Month

VIENNA—Officials from Russia’s energy ministry last month met with other oil producing countries at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries headquarters in Vienna to discuss a global oil glut that has sent prices tumbling. The secret conversations ended on May 13 after two days of discussions and without the release of a public statement, people familiar with the matter said. The discussions underscore the distance between OPEC and Russia, the world’s largest oil producer, ahead of Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak’s unusual visit to Vienna for OPEC’s semiannual meeting. Though Mr. Novak is expected to meet with OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri and some OPEC ministers from outside the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, he has signaled Russia won’t do what some OPEC hard-liners want: namely cut its own production. “At the meetings, it is not planned to agree on production volumes,” Mr. Novak told the Interfax news […]

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OPEC Is Winning the Oil War

As OPEC ministers meet in Vienna this week they’ll be debating whether the strategy that’s upended oil markets is working. The last time the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries met, in November, it jolted markets by leaving production unchanged instead of staunching a glut by trimming output. Prices collapsed to the lowest in six years. OPEC said it wanted to “restore market equilibrium” with stable prices. That means flooding the market so oil drops to a level that forces higher-cost producers to scale back, ultimately pushing prices back up. Now the 12-member group, which controls about 40 percent of world supplies, has to decide whether to change course or stick to its target. These charts illustrate to what extent the strategy has been paying off. Producers are cutting back… Data from the Energy Information Administration shows a contraction in monthly production growth from the top three shale producing regions […]

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OPEC hopes for further oil price recovery despite glut

VIENNA Angola’s oil minister said on Tuesday that $80 per barrel may be right for crude, joining a chorus of OPEC officials and delegates hoping for a further price recovery in months to come despite a global glut. "I would like the price (to) go up, but it is not easy," Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos told reporters. OPEC meets on Friday and is widely expected to maintain its production policy. Last November, OPEC refused to cut output and chose instead to defend market share, adding to the supply surplus arising from booming U.S. oil output. The decision prompted a crash in oil prices to as low as $46 per barrel in January, although crude has recovered to $65 in recent weeks on hopes of a slowdown in U.S. output growth. On Monday, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi said he saw supply thinning and demand improving although he added […]

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OPEC officials say no need to raise oil output target

VIENNA OPEC officials dismissed comments from Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley on Monday that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may raise its oil output target when the producer group meets this week. The cartel’s present production rate is around 31 million barrels per day (bpd), and the group forecasts the call on OPEC stocks to rise to 30.5 million bpd in the second half of the year, the bank said in a note ahead of OPEC’s June 5 talks. Both are higher than the group’s output target of 30 million bpd, which has remained unchanged for several years. One OPEC delegate, in Vienna for the group’s meeting, said there was no need to raise the target. "You see that OPEC is already producing higher (than 30 million bpd)," the delegate said. An official from an African OPEC country, asked about the possibility of raising the target, said: […]

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OPEC likely to keep output unchanged at June 5 meeting: delegates

VIENNA OPEC is likely to keep its output target unchanged when it meets on Friday because the global oil market appears to be in good shape and prices are expected to firm up from current levels, a senior Gulf OPEC delegate told Reuters. Two more OPEC delegates said they expect no change in policy on June 5 when oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are scheduled to meet in Vienna. Oil prices have rallied after falling to a near six-year low close to $45 a barrel in January due to a global glut. Brent crude settled at $65.56 on Friday, up $2.98, or 4.8 percent, on the day. [O/R] "It is unlikely that OPEC will make a decision regarding its production ceiling for two reasons: the first one that Russia and other non-OPEC producers have expressed their non-desire to cooperate in any idea of […]

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