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Oil-Price Rebound Predicted

ENLARGE OPEC says demand for its crude oil will rise this year. Early last month, men worked in oil fields in Bahrain. Photo: Associated Press In the latest sign that the seven-month selloff in crude-oil prices may be nearing a bottom, an energy watchdog said that a recovery seems “inevitable” and the glut that has driven down prices by more than 50% since June could start to ease as soon as the second half. A wave of spending cuts by oil producers and a sharp decline in the number of rigs drilling for crude in the U.S. likely will slow the nation’s oil-output growth, spurring a rebound in prices, the International Energy Agency said in a report released Tuesday U.K. time. The benchmark U.S. oil price rose 2.3% to $52.86 a barrel on Monday and is up 19% from a nearly six-year low hit last month. The IEA, which […]

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OPEC, IEA Reports Hint at a Win for Cartel — 2nd Update

By Sarah Kent And Benoît Faucon In the latest sign that the seven-month selloff in crude-oil prices may be nearing a bottom, an energy watchdog said that a recovery seems "inevitable" and the glut that has driven down prices by more than 50% since June could start to ease as soon as the second half. A wave of spending cuts by oil producers and a sharp decline in the number of rigs drilling for crude in the U.S. likely will slow the nation’s oil-output growth, spurring a rebound in prices, the International Energy Agency said in a report released Tuesday U.K. time. The benchmark U.S. oil price rose 2.3% to $52.86 a barrel on Monday and is up 19% from a nearly six-year low hit last month. The IEA, which coordinates energy policy among industrialized countries, is adding its voice to the chorus of experts who say that the […]

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IEA says scope of US shale oil output fall will be limited

Pump jacks are seen in the Midway Sunset oilfield, California, April 29, 2013. The nearby vast Monterey shale formation is estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration to hold 15 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, or four times that of the Bakken formation centered on North Dakota. Most of that oil is not economically retrievable except by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a production-boosting technique in which large amounts of water, sand and chemicals are injected into shale formations to force hydrocarbon fuels to the surface. Picture taken April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (UNITED STATES – Tags: ENERGY BUSINESS) – RTXZ5IM The dramatic fall in the oil price will lead to a swift pullback in US shale oil production, although the scale of the output decline will be “limited in scope”, the world’s leading energy forecaster said on Tuesday. The supply build-up hanging over the oil market will grind […]

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Alternate opinions: The world’s energy information duopoly comes to an end

Woodcut showing a soothsayer in front of a king. We can see some of the signs in the nature the soothsayer uses: stars, fishes and sounds from the mountains. Creator: Olaus Magnus 1555. Source: "Historia de gentibus septentrionalibus", book 3 via Wikimedia Commons. Recent developments are beginning to undermine the supremacy of the world’s long-running energy information duopoly and its perennially optimistic narrative. Policymakers, investors and the public should take heed. Until now most energy price and supply forecasts and analyses were based predominately on information from the globe’s two leading energy information agencies: the  U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) , the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, and the  International Energy Agency (IEA) , a consortium of 29 countries originally formed in response to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo to provide better information on world energy supplies to its members. Both agencies provide forecasts that are […]

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OPEC January Crude Output Rises as Iraq Pumps at Record Pace

(Bloomberg) — OPEC oil production rose in in January as record Iraqi output helped drive prices near six-year lows. Production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed 483,000 barrels a day to 30.905 million a day this month, led by gains in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Angola, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Output rose even as oil futures dropped to the lowest level since 2009. OPEC left its production quotas unchanged at a November meeting, prompting speculation that the group will let prices slide low enough to slow U.S. output that’s climbed to the highest in three decades. “There’s clearly a battle for market share among the members of the group,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy, said by phone on Friday. “The Iraqis feel entitled to a greater share of […]

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OPEC’s El-Badri Says Oil Will Rebound Instead of Fall to $20

Oil prices will rebound rather than extend their decline to as low as $20 a barrel because a collapse since June isn’t merited by global supply and demand, OPEC’s Secretary-General said. Producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should be first to reduce their output amid a surplus that’s pushed crude below $50 a barrel, Abdalla El-Badri said in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday. Iraq, OPEC’s fastest-growing supplier, said it needs to boost output to compensate for revenues eroded by the price slump. “The price will not go to $20 or $25, I think the price will stay at where we are now,” El-Badri said. “We have seen this before — prices coming down very fast and go up very slow. But prices will rebound.” Oil slumped almost 60 percent since June as OPEC nations continued pumping amid […]

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IEA’s Van der Hoeven sees no quick recovery for global economy, oil demand

Abu Dhabi (Platts)–20Jan2015/655 am EST/1155 GMT Flat global demand for oil and the wild card of shale oil development continued to cast long shadows over the global oil market, the International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said Tuesday. "There is no growth in demand, and that has to do with the global economy," she told reporters on the sidelines of the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi. "We do not see that recovering," she added. Van der Hoeven described the rise of North American shale oil and gas production in recent years as "a game changer" for global energy markets. It was too early to tell whether low oil prices would trigger deflation in advanced economies, but the IEA was monitoring the situation closely, she said. The IEA was also keeping a watch on the impact of falling oil prices on gas markets, she said. […]

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OPEC’s Future Seen in Mining Slump as Oil Price Pummeled

Oil producers reluctant to curb output even as prices tumble to five-and-a-half year lows don’t need to guess what the future holds. They can ask a miner. In coal to iron ore markets, suppliers have raised volumes even as prices slumped, boosting global gluts and jeopardizing profits as the most dominant players seek to maintain revenue and squeeze out higher cost rivals. Prices of thermal coal , used to generate electricity, and metallurgical coal , a key ingredient in steel, have tumbled more than half since 2011 on supply additions and slowing demand in China , the biggest commodities consumer. With OPEC insistent that it won’t curb crude output, and U.S. production rising to its fastest weekly pace in more than 30 years, oil markets may be in line for similar prolonged pain. “If OPEC every now and again looks over their shoulder at what is happening in other […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple