Category: Global

Highlights This article analyses historical IEA forecasts of global energy consumption. Three major forecasting challenges are observed and briefly analysed: Overprediction of oil consumption Underprediction of coal consumption Underprediction of other renewables Introduction The International Energy Agency tackles a monumental task every year when compiling its World Energy Outlook report: forecasting global energy consumption over the next 2-3 decades. Over the years, the IEA has taken quite a lot of flak from critics with 20/20 hindsight about fairly large deviations between forecasted and actual numbers. For example, the IEA failed to forecast the plateau in conventional oil production which started about one decade ago and generally underpredicted the expansion rate of modern renewables. But just how large are these deviations? This article will take a quantitative look at 15 years of IEA World Energy Outlooks (available  here ) and compare the forecasts to actual data from the BP Statistical Review to get […]

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URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/136362/IEA_Slow_Demand_Rising_Supply_Put_Further_Pressure_On_Oil_Price Oil prices are likely to come under further downward pressure, IEA says, as it cuts its outlook for demand growth in 2015 and predicts healthy non-OPEC supply gains will aggravate a global oil glut. LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Oil prices are likely to come under further downward pressure, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as it cut its outlook for demand growth in 2015 and predicted healthy non-OPEC supply gains would aggravate a global oil glut. Oil prices have fallen by 45 percent since June with the sell-off gaining pace after OPEC decided last month to keep its output target unchanged. The IEA said that if OPEC maintained production levels, the global oversupply would reach 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2015, when demand will be seasonally weak. The agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialised countries, cut its outlook for […]

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LONDON — The downdraft in oil prices showed no sign of abating on Friday. The main international benchmark, Brent crude, fell about 3 percent to about $61.80 barrel, a five-year low. That dip came a day after the American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, fell below the psychologically significant $60 a barrel level in the United States for the first time since 2009. The International Energy Agency added to downward price pressures on Friday by cutting its forecast for global demand for crude oil in 2015. For now, analysts say, there seems to be no safety net for oil prices. “In the very short term prices can go lower; the market is weighted to very bearish sentiment,” Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects, a London-based research firm, said Friday. European stocks fell on Friday, posting their biggest weekly loss since mid-2011 as energy stocks were hurt by the […]

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Trimmed oil demand forecast slams crude oil prices in an already weak market. (UPI Photo/Monika Graff) The IEA said in its market report for December the outlook ahead was weaker than previously expected. The outlook for 2015 demand growth was trimmed by 230,000 barrels per day to just under 1 million bpd because of lower expectations about the Russian economy and other oil-exporting countries impacted by the bear market for crude oil . That word sent oil prices reeling in a market already battered by low demand expectations outlined in the December market report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent, the global benchmark, shed more than $1.20 per barrel for the January contract to trade at $62.46 early Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. index, passed a new threshold low to trade down $1.30 to near $58.50 for January delivery. Oil prices are at a point where […]

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mb/dWorld Oil Demand1Q20122Q20123Q20124Q20121Q20132Q20133Q20134Q20131Q20142Q20143Q20144Q20141Q20152Q20153Q20154Q2015868890929496© OECD/IEA 2014 World Oil Demand *Please note that these Highlights are from the latest Oil Market Report, which is released in full to subscribers only – according to this schedule each month . Non subscribers get free access to the latest Highlights on this schedule, however the full Oil Market Report is released to the public two weeks after the report is released to subscribers. If you would like to receive the full report with accompanying charts and graphs on the day of publication please subscribe or contact the subscription manager . Oil prices continued to plunge in November and into early December. The selloff gained pace after OPEC on 27 November decided to keep its output target unchanged. ICE Brent was last trading at a five-year low of $64.05/bbl, down more than 40% from June, and NYMEX WTI at $60.45/bbl. The outlook for global oil demand […]

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Global oil demand next year will be weaker than previously estimated and supply from non-OPEC producers will be bigger, the International Energy Agency said. Consumption will expand by 230,000 barrels a day less than estimated in November, the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in a report today. Output from nations outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will grow at a faster pace than the agency predicted last month. Production rising faster than demand could strain some nations’ ability to store by the middle of next year, it predicted. The agency cut projections because the economies of producer nations are being hurt by tumbling prices, the IEA said. Most of the reduction in next year’s estimate is attributable to Russia , where sanctions are hobbling growth, it said. Brent crude costs that collapsed 43 percent this year are too low for 10 of OPEC’s 12 members to […]

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