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New Energy Report from I.E.A. Forecasts Decline in North American Oil Supply

National Public Radio’s “ Morning Edition ” reported this morning: NPR’s Business News starts with the outlook for oil. This is a change of course – the International Energy Agency has released a report on global energy investment. And this group predicts the United States will have to rely more heavily on Middle East oil in the coming years, as North American sources start to dry up a little bit. U.S. energy production has boomed recently, much of it coming from oil and gas extracted from shale. But the IEA says U.S. production will start to lose steam around 2020, and that would put more bargaining power back in the hands of OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia. This is quite interesting, given that in 2012, the IEA forecast that the U.S. would overtake Saudia Arabia in oil production by 2020, and would be a net oil exporter by […]

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IEA Expects World to Rely More on Middle East Oil

A top energy watchdog said the world will need more Middle Eastern oil in the next decade, as the current U.S. boom wanes. But the International Energy Agency warned that Persian Gulf producers may still fail to fill the gap, risking higher oil prices. In its first update to the agency’s energy investment outlook in more than a decade, the IEA–which represents some of the world’s largest consumer nations–said it sees "growth in oil demand [becoming] steadily more reliant on investment in the Middle East." Surging American production from tight oil–extracted from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota–has led the agency and other oil-market analysts to predict the U.S. could leapfrog the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, by 2020. That has triggered debate in Washington about easing a long-standing ban on most crude exports from American shores. It has also […]

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We will see if Opec will ‘move over’

Demand for Opec oil is expected to be 29.76 mbd in 2014 as compared to 30.21 mbd in 2013 For almost two years now, the oil market has witnessed a relative stability rarely seen before. The price of the Opec reference basket of 12 crude oils moved in a narrow range of between $104 (Dh381.68) and $109 a barrel. The oil price is kept within this range as production in the US soared to a level not seen for 28 years, while this is countered by increasing oil demand and by outages of production from other regions, especially in Libya. More importantly, and especially since February, tension between Russia and the West as a result of the Ukraine crises has given further support to prices in anticipation of a worsening situation, though oil and gas exports from Russia have hardly been affected so far. The estimates reported by both […]

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Energy agency predicts oil shortage unless supply boosted

Industrialised countries could be facing the prospect of an oil supply squeeze and higher prices later this year unless production is lifted, according to a report just released by the International Energy Agency. In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA says recent production gains will not be sufficient to meet market needs in the second half of the year when consumption picks up. "Crude prices remain elevated and forecast balances call for a significant rise in OPEC production from current levels for the second half of the year," the IEA said. The IEA says OPEC nations will have to increase third quarter production by another 900,000 barrels per day from current levels to 30.7 million barrels per day to meet the expected demand. "While OPEC has more than enough capacity to deliver, it remains to be seen whether it will manage to overcome the above-ground hurdles that have […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

il prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl. Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report , to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.  Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

Welcome to the OMR Subscriber’s website Please check that your usage of this website conforms to the licence you subscribe to at http://www.iea.org/oilmar/licenceomr.html. Please complete our reader survey to win a copy of the MTOMR 2014: www.surveymonkey.com/s/IEA_OMR_Survey Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 15th May 2014 Oil prices rose marginally month-on-month in April, supported by continued tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, supply outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries and stepped up crude buying as refiners complete seasonal turnarounds. ICE Brent futures were last trading at $109.85/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $102.10/bbl. Forecast global demand growth for 2014 has been raised marginally since last month’s Report , to 1.32 mb/d, on higher 1Q14 data. Baseline adjustments to 2012 add 0.1 mb/d to the historical average and total demand, now pegged at 92.8 mb/d in 2014.  Global supplies rose 700 kb/d month-on-month to 92.1 mb/d in April, with roughly half of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC, Naimi See Output Flat Amid Rising Supply Elsewhere

OPEC should keep pumping crude at about 30 million barrels a day in the near term amid rising global supply, according to the group’s Secretary General and Saudi Arabia , its largest member. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has no reason to change the current output ceiling of 30 million barrels a day at its next meeting on June 11 because oil markets are stable, Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Minister Ali Al-Naimi told reporters in Seoul today. Supply and demand will remain “fairly balanced” throughout the year, according to comments from OPEC’s Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri, posted on website of the International Energy Forum. “In the near term, OPEC production will remain steady around the 29-30 million barrels of oil per day level,” El-Badri said. “At present we are seeing growth in non-OPEC supply” and other producers in the group are making up for the supply shortfall from Libya, […]

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OPEC Should Maintain Output as Market Is Stable, Says Al-Naimi

The oil market is stable and supply shortages can be covered, so the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has no reason to change its production levels, according to Saudi Arabia’s oil minister. OPEC’s current output of about 30 million barrels a day is the right level and global oil demand is “great,” Ali Al-Naimi told reporters in Seoul today. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the 12-member group, is pumping about 9.6 million barrels a day and has 12.5 million of capacity, he said. Oil at about $100 a barrel is a “fair price for all,” said Al-Naimi, who is attending ministerial meetings on clean energy in South Korea’s capital. Brent futures are above $108 in London today, rising for the first time in three days amid concern that the crisis in Ukraine may disrupt energy supplies from Russia . West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, was near […]

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OPEC Chief Sees Output Bouncing Back After March Fall

OPEC’s output is set to rebound after tumbling in March, the secretary-general of the oil producers’ group said Friday. Production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in March to its lowest level this year amid Iraqi and Libyan disruptions. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Petrostrategies energy conference, Abdalla Salem el-Badri said that "in the third and fourth quarter, we will increase production." OPEC, which supplies more than a third of the oil consumed globally each day, said Thursday that its production in March was 400,000 barrels a day below its agreed collective ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. "OPEC will respect" the ceiling, Mr. el-Badri said. The head of OPEC, himself a former Libyan oil minister, said that Libya would be a likely contributor to the output increase. Following a deal with rebels who had blocked ports in eastern Libya, he said […]

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International Energy Agency – Oil Market Report

Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 11th April 2014 Crude oil prices were range-bound in March, with supply outages in the MENA and Russia-Ukraine tensions countering seasonally weaker demand. By early April, market expectations of an imminent restart of Libyan exports pressured Brent prices lower. Brent last traded at $107.75/bbl.   The forecast of global demand growth has been marginally trimmed to 1.3 mb/d for 2014, reflecting downward adjustments to the projection of Russian demand. The absolute demand estimate remains roughly unchanged, as upward revisions to baseline non-OECD Asian demand counterbalance lower Russian growth. Global supplies plunged by 1.2 mb/d to 91.75 mb/d in March, led by steeply lower OPEC output , but remained up by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year, as non‐OPEC growth of 1.98 mb/d more […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple