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World’s untested assumption on 6 mb/d Iraqi oil by 2020

Given the ethnic turmoil in Iraq triggered by ISIL’s recent seizure of towns in Iraq’s North and West it is uncertain how this will impact on oil production in the Shia controlled South, from where the bulk of Iraq’s oil exports come from. At present oil exports from Basrah’s new oil terminals do not seem to be affected by the unrest but this can change. We don’t know what is going to happen, especially if this conflict widens the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran which was hitherto limited to Syria (where oil production had peaked). It would be prudent for governments which are still planning new oil dependent infrastructure like motorways and airports to shelve these plans and prepare for oil shortages instead. Almost a year ago I wrote this article: 9/8/2013   Iraq crude oil exports stall amid pipeline attacks http://crudeoilpeak.info/iraq-crude-oil-exports-stall-amid-pipeline-attacks This post is an update. 12/6/2014 […]

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Fifth round of Iranian nuclear talks kick off in Vienna

Iran and six major states on Monday resume a new round of nuclear talks in Vienna, trying to work on the drafting of the final agreement. Based on the interim deal reached in Geneva last November, Iran and six major powers including Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany are trying to find a final solution for the decade-old dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue by July 20. After meeting with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton Monday in the capital city of Austria, Iran’s chief negotiator and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters that he hopes the talks can "get ready for moving forward." He also told Iranian media that Iran and the six major states will review nuclear-related issues once again in their plenary meeting on Tuesday. Iran had held bilateral meetings with France, Russia and Germany before the talks […]

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The Kurds take Kirkuk, now what?

The long-standing dispute over an oil-rich Iraqi city may have reached a critical hour as Kurdish Peshmerga forces now claim to have taken control of Kirkuk. As neighbouring countries and the international community scramble for an appropriate response to the so-called Sunni rebellion rapidly gaining ground across Iraq, Kurdish troops have stirred controversy by stepping in to fill what they say was a “security vacuum” in Kirkuk. Indeed, while frightened residents welcomed the move, it has raised pertinent questions over whether Iraq, in its present form, will survive the mayhem. The Kurds, a nation of over 30 million spread across several countries, have maintained a semi-autonomous region in the north of Iraq since a Western no-fly-zone (above the 36th parallel) was imposed at the end of the Gulf war in 1991. In the years since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the […]

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Sunni Rebels in Iraq Kill Shiite Volunteers and Seize New City

Sunni rebel extremists ambushed and killed more than two dozen Shiite volunteer militiamen late Sunday just outside the holy city of Samarra, the first such killings since Iraq’s government started mobilizing thousands of untrained Shiites to stop the insurgent advance threatening the country. That advance appeared to gain momentum elsewhere on Monday. Sunni insurgents took over the small city of Tal Afar, in northwestern Iraq, according to Iraqi security officials and residents, sending both Shiite and Sunni residents fleeing. In another sign of diminished confidence in the government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, the United Nations said Monday it had temporarily relocated 58 staff from Baghdad to Amman, Jordan. Farhan Haq, a spokesman for Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, told reporters in New York that more United Nations staff members may be extricated in coming days. On Sunday, the State Department announced it had begun a partial evacuation […]

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U.S. and Iran Signaling New Joint Effort in Iraq Crisis

The United States and Iran on Monday signaled increased willingness to work together to arrest the expanding Sunni insurgency in Iraq, with Secretary of State John Kerry openly suggesting such a collaboration would be constructive and another American official saying the subject could come up at talks this week on the Iranian nuclear dispute. Cooperation between the United States and Iran to contain the Iraqi crisis would represent the first time the two countries — estranged adversaries for more than three decades — have jointly undertaken a common security purpose since they shared military intelligence to counter the Taliban in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks 13 years ago. Mr. Kerry, in an interview with Yahoo News, called the advance by insurgents under the banner of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria over the past week an “existential threat” to Iraq and suggested American airstrikes […]

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Unrest in Iraq not Affecting Oil Markets – OPEC Head

The unrest in Iraq isn’t affecting oil markets or the country’s oil output, the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Monday. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress, Abdalla Salem el-Badri said: "Nothing is affected. production is still going well and exporting is going fine." He said he doesn’t expect the recent wave of unrest in the country to affect the balance of the supply and demand of the oil market. The U.S. and Iran have publicly committed in recent days to provide military support if requested to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and help his government repel an offensive the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham has launched against Baghdad and other Iraqi cities over the past week. "I hope that Iraq situation will go back to normal very soon," said the head of OPEC. Write to Alexander […]

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Jihadis Recruitment Drive in Riyadh Revives Biggest Saudi Threat

The al-Qaeda breakaway group that has captured Iraq ’s biggest northern city is on a recruitment drive in Saudi Arabia. The evidence showed up last month in Riyadh, where drivers woke up to find leaflets stuffed into the handles of their car doors and in their windshields. They were promoting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, which has grabbed the world’s attention by seizing parts of northern Iraq. The militant group is also using social media, such as Twitter and YouTube, to recruit young Saudi men. Already at war with the governments of Iraq and Syria , ISIL also poses a potential threat to the Al Saud family’s rule over the world’s biggest oil exporter. Saudi authorities gained the upper hand in their battle with al-Qaeda, which targeted the kingdom a decade ago, yet analysts said the latest generation of militants may be harder to crush. ISIL, […]

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Iraq insurgent advance spreads to northwest

The insurgent offensive that has threatened to dismember Iraq spread to the northwest of the country on Sunday, when Sunni militants launched a dawn raid on a town close to the Syrian border, clashing with police and government forces. As the rapid advance south by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) towards Baghdad appeared to slow over the weekend, fierce fighting erupted in the town of Tal Afar 60 km (40 miles) west of Mosul near the Syrian border, security sources and a local official said. ISIL fighters and other Sunni Muslim armed groups have stormed several towns on the road to Baghdad after seizing Mosul nearly a week ago – an offensive which only stalled as it approached the mainly Shi’ite capital. The advance alarmed both Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s Shi’ite supporters in Iran and officials in the United States, which helped […]

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Iraq Army Tries to Roll Back Sunni Militants’ Advance

Iraq ’s military pummeled the positions of Sunni Muslim insurgents who have captured large chunks of territory north of Baghdad, trying to turn back battlefield advances that threaten to split apart the country. The army killed more than 279 “terrorists” with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and destroyed 50 of the group’s vehicles within 24 hours, military spokesman Qassim Ata said in a televised news conference yesterday. “The security situation is improving” and government forces are conducting pre-emptive operations in Baghdad, which is under their control, he said. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite Muslim-led government is seeking to reassert control over territory held by the breakaway al-Qaeda group, whose advances put in doubt his rule over a unified Iraq. Sectarian strife is pushing OPEC’s second-largest oil producer closer to civil war, three years after the U.S. withdrew its forces from the country. Jihadist forums and social-media […]

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Iraq conflict: US considers talks with Iran

The USS George HW Bush has been sent to the Gulf by the US along with two other military vessels Continue reading the main story Washington is considering direct talks with Iran on the security situation in Iraq, a US official has told the BBC. The move comes as US President Barack Obama weighs up options on action to take in Iraq. Meanwhile, the US condemned as "horrifying" photos posted online by Sunni militants that appear to show fighters massacring Iraqi soldiers. In the scenes, the soldiers are shown being led away and lying in trenches before and after their "execution". The Iraqi military said the pictures were real, but their authenticity has not been independently confirmed. The BBC’s Jim Muir, in northern Iraq, says if the photographs are genuine, it would be by far the biggest single […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple