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World Population Will Nearly Double by 2100

The world population is 7.3 billion presently. It will surpass 11 billion by the end of the century, according to UN Population Division projections The world population is growing at an unprecedented rate. It will nearly double as much as we have today by 2100. Currently, the world population is 7.3 billion. It will be 9.7 million in 2050 and will cross 11 billion by the end of the century, according to United Nations Population Division . The global population growth will be largely driven by Africa. The continent’s current population is 1.2 billion. It is expected to triple or quadruple over the next 85 years. This is all due to consistent rapid growth in population in the region. Nigeria will likely be the biggest contributor if it continues to follow the current trend. United States will also have a significant increase in population. The country is projected to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Peak Oilers Shut Up Forever Please

Princeton University geologist Ken Deffeyes predicted that global oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, 2005 . In 2005, daily global oil production averaged 85 million barrels per day. Daily petroleum liquids production in July was 96 million barrels per day. For the past six months global oil prices have been falling steeply. Today West Texas Intermediate was selling for $43.20 per barrel. That means the price per barrel is just over $31 in inflation adjusted 2000 dollars. CNBC cite analysts who project that the price will fall further into the $30s per barrel range soon. Should the price fall to $30 dollars, that would be about $22 per barrel in 2000 dollars. That would be nearly back to what the price was 15 years ago . Read it and weep peak oilers NYMEX

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Highlights North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $57/barrel (b) in July, a $5/b decrease from June. Brent crude oil spot prices fell further in early August, settling at $48/b on August 7. The recent price declines reflect concerns about lower economic growth in emerging markets, expectations of higher oil exports from Iran, and continuing actual and expected growth in global inventories. EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, $6/b and $8/b lower than in last month’s STEO, respectively. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices in both 2015 and 2016 average $5/b less than the Brent price. The current values of futures and options contracts for November 2015 delivery ( Market Prices and Uncertainty Report ) suggest the market expects WTI prices to range from $34/b to $64/b (at the 95% confidence interval) in November 2015. On July […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Bargain Hunters Stymied as Oil Rout Offers 1 in 6 Odds of Profit

Bargain hunters looking to profit on the latest oil rout might as well roll a six-sided die. Only one in six of the stocks and bonds issued by North American energy producers since the start of the year appreciated in value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “People’s expectations were that prices would get better as the year went on,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $12 billion portfolio of natural resource bonds at Manulife Asset Management in Boston. “People are now trying to figure out how low it will go and how long it’s going to stay this way.” Oil’s rebound fizzled, with prices sliding from a June peak of $61 a barrel to a six-year low of $43.08 as rising production from the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Iraq exacerbates a worldwide glut. As prices seesawed, oil companies sought to raise cash to shore up their balance sheets. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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EIA: US crude output declines to continue through mid-2016

Total US crude oil production declined 100,000 b/d in July compared with June, and is expected to continue decreasing through mid-2016 before growth resumes late in 2016, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) . In the outlook, EIA noted that global liquids production continues to exceed demand, resulting in strong inventory builds throughout the forecast period. Global oil inventory builds averaged 2.7 million b/d in second-quarter 2015, up 800,000 b/d from the first quarter. Inventory builds are expected to slow to roughly 1.8 million b/d in the second half of the year, and to 900,000 b/d in 2016. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $54/bbl in 2015 and $59/bbl in 2016, $6/bbl and $8/bbl lower than in last month’s STEO, respectively. Forecast West Texas Intermediate crude prices in both 2015 and 2016 average $5/b less than the Brent price. Global […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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US Shale Declining and OPEC Still Climbing

There is new data out today. The EIA published their International Petroleum Statistics yesterday. The EIA also published their Drilling Productivity Report which gave their expected shale oil and gas production through September. Then this morning OPEC published their Monthly Oil Marketing Report with OPEC crude only production numbers through July. First the Drilling Productivity Report. Of course most of the Drilling Productivity Report is projection, not history. And that projection goes through September 2015 . The EIA has the Bakken peaking in December and declining 107 thousand barrels per day since that point. A secondary peak was reached in April and declining steadily since then. Eagle Ford The EIA has Eagle Ford peaking in March and declining 226 thousand barrels per day since that point. The EIA has Niobrara peaking in March, almost flat for one month then declining sharply after that for a total decline of 75 […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil-Sands Syncrude Drop Reveals Downturn Tactic as Outages Surge

Canadian synthetic crude production fell 15% from previous year Producers of light synthetic crude from Canada’s oil sands found a way to manage this year’s price slump by churning out less and getting more maintenance work done. The strategy is highlighted by a 15 percent decline in the production of the Syncrude benchmark in May from a year earlier, according to data reported by Statistics Canada on Monday. Oil-sands operators including Royal Dutch Shell Plc cut output while collectively undertaking the biggest set of repairs this spring in five years at their upgraders, plants that turn bitumen into light oil, according to Genscape Inc., an energy data company. The work followed the lowest average quarterly price for benchmark U.S. crude since 2009. “From a strategic point of view, I’m sure these major companies are betting that the peak of oversupply is this year, now,” said Carl Evans, a Genscape […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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The Earth’s Battery Is Running Low

In the quiet of summer, a couple of U.S. scientists argued in the pages of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that modern civilization has drained the Earth — an ancient battery of stored chemical energy — to a dangerous low. Although the battery metaphor made headlines in leading newspapers in China, India and Russia, the paper didn’t garner “much immediate attention in North America,” admits lead author John Schramski, a mechanical engineer and an ecologist. And that’s a shame, because the paper gives ordinary people an elegant metaphor to understand the globe’s stagnating economic and political systems and their close relatives: collapsing ecosystems. It also offers a blunt course of action: “drastic” energy conservation. It, too, comes with a provocative title: “Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid discharge of the Earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind.” The battery metaphor speaks volumes and then some. In […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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U.S. shale oil output forecast to fall 75,000 barrels per day in September: EIA

A pumpjack drills for oil in the Monterey Shale, California, April 29, 2013. U.S. oil production from the largest shale plays was forecast to fall by some 75,000 barrels per day in September from August, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Monday. Eagle Ford production was set to fall by 56,000 bpd to 1.48 million bpd while production from the Bakken was set to drop 27,000 bpd to 1.16 million bpd. Production from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico bucked the trend and was forecast to rise by 8,000 bpd to 2.04 million bpd. Meanwhile, new well oil production was seen to rise 6 bpd to 333 bpd for the Permian and 26 bpd to 792 bpd in the Eagle Ford. It was set to rise 4 bpd to 692 bpd in the Bakken. (EIA corrects new-well oil production per rig to 688 […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple