Category: Peak Oil

Shale Bubble Page added on December 23, 2013 We’re being told that – thanks to technological advances like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling – the US is undergoing an energy revolution, leading us in a few short years to become once again the world’s biggest oil producer and an exporter of natural gas. According to the Oil & Gas Industry and their proponents, “fracking” will provide the US with energy security, low energy prices for the foreseeable future, more than a million jobs, and economic growth. “There’s no doubt that we’re seeing an industrial revolution… taking place because of the shale revolution.” –Ed Morse, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citigroup “We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years, and my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy.” –President Barack Obama “[The Utica Shale is] the biggest thing economically […]

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One of the more famous portraits of peak oil. Image: Wikimedia In a year that saw the United States reach near-historic levels of fossil fuel production , it seemed that the words ‘peak oil’ were scarcely uttered. But it’s still a looming question, that we have yet to satisfactorily answer—when are we going to run out of oil? Have we already started to? A renowned geologist, and a former top analyst for BP no less, says the answer is yes.  "We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills," Dr. Richard Miller said recently at a talk in London. According to the Guardian , Miller "prepared BP’s in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007," and is bringing peak oil back into focus at the end of a petroleum-soaked year. He says that oil production has already peaked in 37 oil-producing countries, and that […]

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Food may run out long before the oil does. A study by scientists at the University of Nebraska warns of " abrupt plateaus or declines " in industrial agricultural production. As much as "31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production" has experienced "yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe." The declines and plateaus in production have become prevalent despite increasing investment in agriculture, which could mean that maximum potential yields under the industrial model of agribusiness have already occurred. Crop yields in "major cereal-producing regions have not increased for long periods of time following an earlier period of steady linear increase." The paper makes for ominous reading. Production levels have already flattened out with "no case of a return to the previous rising yield trend" for key regions amounting to "33% of global rice and 27% […]

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A former British Petroleum ( BP ) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of “continuous recession” and increased risk of conflict and hunger. At a lecture on ‘Geohazards’ earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008. Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last […]

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Today, I came across two news stories that would seem to contradict each other. Both are based on newly released U.S. government agency reports. The first headline reads, " Gas-Powered Vehicles To Dominate Roads in 2040, Feds Say .’ Published on the car-centric Edmunds web site, it contends "In 2040, 78 percent of all cars and trucks will run on gasoline, compared to 82 percent in 2012." By contrast, "Plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles will take a backseat to gas-powered vehicles, accounting for just 1 percent of total sales in 2040…" Now some of this clearly has to do with the legacy effect. Many, if not most of the 15 million gasoline cars purchased this year will likely still be in service some twenty years from now. That’s 2034. Even the most optimistic projections of EV sales – that includes plug-in and fully electric models – sees them capturing […]

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There is a lot of confusion about which limit we are reaching with respect to oil supply. There seems to be a huge amount of “reserves,” and oil production seems to be increasing right now, so people can’t imagine that there might be a near term problem. There are at least three different views regarding the nature of the limit: Climate Change.  There is no limit on oil production within the foreseeable future. Oil prices can be expected to keep rising. With higher prices, alternative fuels and higher cost extraction techniques will become available. The main concern is climate change. The only reason that oil production would drop is because we have found a way to use less oil because of  climate change concerns, and choose not to extract oil that seems to be available. Limit Based on Geology (“Peak Oil”).  In each oil field, production tends to rise […]

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More As the race heats up for drilling in Arctic waters, several U.S. Senate members have requested the Interior Department to delay future oil and gas lease sales and permitting in the Arctic Ocean, including the proposed lease sale 237, until a thorough reevaluation of environmental risks is conducted. Six Senate Democrats, with Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Dick Durbin of Illinois leading the charge, published an addressed letter to Secretary Sally Jewel to suspend plans to auction new leases in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska’s northern coast in 2016, with Shell Oil Company being used as an example. “The myriad problems faced last year by Shell Oil Company as it attempted to drill exploration wells in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas demonstrated the unpredictability, harsh conditions, and heightened potential for human error that characterize any industrial activity in the Arctic Ocean,” the letter stated.  In September, the Bureau […]

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The world may be nearing the upper limits of agricultural production, raising questions about how we will feed a more crowded planet. US researchers say yields of about 30 per cent of crops, including rice and wheat, have decreased abruptly or have plateaued in recent years. Most future projections that would ensure global food security are typically based upon a constant increase in yield. However, this new research reported in Nature Communications , suggests this may not be possible. Past trends have been dominated by the rapid adoption of new technologies which allowed for an increase in crop production. Kenneth Cassman and colleagues at the University of Nebraska characterise past yield trends for cereal, oil, sugar, fibre, pulses, tuber, root crops, rice, wheat and maize, as evidence against a projected scenario of crop yield increase. Their data suggest the rate of yield gain has recently decreased or stopped for […]

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By Collin Eaton December 15, 2013 The stubborn rock that the energy industry breached to unleash a nationwide oil and gas rush remains a worthy foe, as producers must turn their drills ever faster to keep the boom’s lifeblood flowing. Engineers have long known that shale, the source rock that fed North American sandstone reservoirs for millennia, could never muster the natural pressure producers need to extract oil and gas. Its molecules are too tightly packed: Shale is about 1,000 times denser than brick, and so far, only hydraulic fracturing can induce enough artificial permeability to clear a path for the fossil treasure. But that technique also creates an initial production spike that soon turns south: Behind the headlines boasting of a U.S. oil boom, producers have been grappling with rapid production declines at aging shale-play wells. The only answer: drill more and more wells. In recent months, falling […]

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