Category: Peak Oil

International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said Monday that he would be surprised if Iranian oil exports returned to pre-crisis levels soon, following the political accord Sunday on Iran’s nuclear program. “We may see currently some downwards pressure on the prices, but we’re still not there to comment on a structural impact on the markets, because the agreement is not yet clear about the future of Iranian oil production,” Mr. Birol told The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of an Oslo oil conference hosted by Statoil ASA (STO). Crude-oil futures were lower Monday on expectations that more oil supply could soon be available to the global oil market. Mr. Birol said he would be surprised to see Iranian oil exports reach pre-crisis levels anytime soon. “It was about 2.2 million barrels per day, and I would be surprised to see that it would […]

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International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said Monday that he would be surprised if Iranian oil exports returned to pre-crisis levels soon, following the political accord Sunday on Iran’s nuclear program. “We may see currently some downwards pressure on the prices, but we’re still not there to comment on a structural impact on the markets, because the agreement is not yet clear about the future of Iranian oil production,” Mr. Birol told The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of an Oslo oil conference hosted by Statoil ASA (STO). Crude-oil futures were lower Monday on expectations that more oil supply could soon be available to the global oil market. Mr. Birol said he would be surprised to see Iranian oil exports reach pre-crisis levels anytime soon. “It was about 2.2 million barrels per day, and I would be surprised to see that it would […]

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Tight oil is an important contributor to the U.S. energy supply, but its long-term sustainability is questionable. It should be not be viewed as a panacea for business as usual in future U.S. energy security planning.’ [1] Today, it takes about one barrel of conventional U.S. oil to produce the equivalent of nine barrels, or 378 gallons of gasoline. Meanwhile, the EROI for nonconventional oil, that is, oil produced from shale and tar sands, stands even lower, at about four. For every barrel of oil used to drill, producers obtain only four barrels of nonconventional oil, or 168 gallons of gasoline [2] FACTS SUCK Lost in the Happy Talk about our imminent energy independence are some notable facts intentionally omitted from those discussions. Facts, as we know, suck. And when the telling of a story of abundance collides with the reality of not […]

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Last week the International Energy Agency in Paris released its annual World Energy Outlook, which projects energy trends out to 2035. As it did last year, the 2013 WEO had plenty of good news for Americans: “The net North American requirement for crude imports all but disappears by 2035 and the region becomes a larger exporter of oil products.” Before we celebrate the end of the Middle East’s dominant role in global energy, however, a quick review of the IEA’s track record on its projections might be in order. Further, an analysis of a few key global oil production factors exposes the unstable foundation upon which hopes for North American oil independence are built. Following the two global oil crises of the 1970s, the IEA was upbeat about oil supply looking out a quarter century into the future. […]

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When Americans take to the road this Thanksgiving holiday they will be paying about 6% less for gasoline than they paid a year ago. That’s because the price of crude oil has fallen. Increased oil production due to fracking–the technology that breaks up shale rock buried deep inside the earth to release oil and natural gas reserves–has boosted U.S. oil output, and, in turn, reduced prices. Crude oil is trading near $93 a barrel, a five-month low, and gasoline prices are averaging $3.21 a gallon for regular unleaded, according to AAA. Natural gas is trading at $3.55 per million BTU, a few cents below the year-ago price. What happens next to oil prices will, as always, depend on supply and demand fundamentals…and politics. For crude oil, “the floor is established by the costs of these unconventional resources…at $60 or $70″ a barrel,” says […]

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Earth insight badge Person using petrol pump Petrol prices have continued to rise as oil prices hit new highs. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA A new multi-disciplinary study led by the University of Maryland calls for immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce vulnerability to the imminent threat of global peak oil , which could put the entire US economy and other major industrial economies at risk. The peer-reviewed study contradicts the recent claims within the oil industry that peak oil has been indefinitely offset by shale gas and other unconventional oil and gas resources. A report by the World Energy Council (WEC) last month, for instance, stated that peak oil was unlikely to be realised within the next forty years at least. This is due to global reserves being 25 per cent higher than in 1993. According to the WEC report, 80% of global energy is currently […]

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It was as if the International Energy Agency were appearing on the old American television game show To Tell the Truth last week as it offered a third contradictory forecast in the space of a year. You may recall that on To Tell the Truth the host would begin by reading a statement from a person with an unusual story or profession. Then, a celebrity panel would question three contestants who claimed to be that person. Afterwards, the panelists would vote on whom they believed was the real person. Finally, the host would say, “Will the real [name of person] please stand up?” (Some episodes are still available here on YouTube.) The difference is that the contestants on To Tell the Truth would try to tell similar, plausible stories so as to stump the panel. In the non-game-show world of energy forecasting, the IEA–a consortium of 28 countries, all […]

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IMGP0758               Peak oil demand is a provocative theory and would rely on some unanswered questions being met: namely on the  development of large-scale gas-fired trucks, rail and shipping vessels; the sustainability of the US shale boom; and policy action to support improved fuel-mileage and to phase out oil subsidies. [1]   DAMNED FACTS   A Citi Research report on so-called peak oil demand [ first post of this six-part series here ] has been drawing a lot of attention lately. Understandably: what could be bigger news for anyone concerned with climate change, energy security, etc.? The report comes out hot right from the start, suggesting ‘The End is Nigh’ and we are ‘Approaching a Tipping Point’ on global oil demand. Unfortunately, though, it’s less than persuasive. The first thing that ought to raise an eyebrow or two is how wildly Citi’s analysis […]

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So-called environmentalists never tire of predicting the end of oil. They’ve been talking about “peak oil” for decades, after which annual production would inevitably decline as we drain the world’s finite supply. In fact, proven reserves (oil that we know is there and is recoverable with current technology and under current law) have been steadily rising, despite the fact that the world pumps 83.9 million barrels a day out of the ground, a 32 percent increase over 20 years ago. New techniques, such as fracking and horizontal drilling, have brought new life to both old fields and new ones whose oil had previously been unrecoverable. And vast new fields, such as the giant finds off the coast of Brazil, have added new reserves. Much of that 32 percent increase in world production has gone to power the fast-rising economies of the developing world, such as China, India, and Brazil. Oil […]

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Oil drilling in the United States Energy experts have warned recently that Britain currently stores enough natural gas for only thirteen days of supply. Such a stark reality indicates how little reserve actually exists to fall back on. The news also brings to mind the concept of energy and fossil fuel shortage, depicted in movies such as ‘Mad Max’. But with our entire economy and way of life dependent on one particular fossil fuel, namely crude oil, how long can we expect this commodity to last, and for the present levels of production to be maintained? A study by a German think tank published in September, 2010 , warned of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in the next fifteen years as a result of a peak and irreversible decline in world oil supplies. The study stated that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur […]

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