Category: Peak Oil

According to Time Magazine, in an interview with Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, “Global Food prices have risen 25% this last year and many nations are starting to hoard commodities” (corn, wheat, rice etc.). Whatever the reasons for this, and I don’t understand many of them, this trend is not going to get better. One of these reason alone will sky rocket food prices in the next 10-20 years and that is described in “ Peak Oil” graphs. In very over-simplified terms, “peak Oil” means that world-wide we have reached our highest production level of oil and that from here on the availability of oil will decrease rapidly and consequently the price of oil will increase sharply. By 2030 we will have as much oil available as we had in 1970 with double the demand. Increased oil prices have already caused us to look […]

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Have we reached ‘peak food’? Shortages loom as global production rates slow thumbnail The world has entered an era of “peak food” production with an array of staples from corn and rice to wheat and chicken slowing in growth – with potentially disastrous consequences for feeding the planet. New research finds that the supply of 21 staples, such as eggs, meat, vegetables and soybeans is already beginning to run out of momentum, while the global population continues to soar. Peak chicken was in 2006, while milk and wheat both peaked in 2004 and rice peaked way back in 1988, according to new research from Yale University, Michigan State University and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Germany. What makes the report particularly alarming is that so many crucial sources of food have peaked in a relatively short period of history, the researchers said. “People often talk of substitution. […]

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They Really Do Want To Reduce The Population thumbnail Most Americans have absolutely no idea, but a very dark philosophy is spreading like wildfire among the global elite.  This philosophy is an obsessive belief that humanity has become a cancer that is destroying the earth.  There are now large numbers of global leaders that are convinced that the exploding population of the world has become like a virus or a plague, and that it must be combated as such.  In fact, it would be very difficult to understate just how obsessed many members of the global elite are with population control.  The United Nations puts out position papers about it, universities have entire courses dedicated to it, radical population control advocates have been appointed to some of the highest political positions in the world, and some of the wealthiest people on the planet get together just to talk about it .  Those who believe in this philosophy are constantly talking about […]

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Peak Oil Pulled a Fast One on Me thumbnail I’ll admit that I was completely caught off guard by the recent (and ongoing?) crash in oil prices. It’d be a stretch to say I’m embarrassed by my lack of foresight, although perhaps “dumb-ass” would be a bit deserving. I would say I’m well enough versed with the reality of peak oil : I’ve read perhaps a couple dozen books on the topic, poured through several of the peak oil blogs (upon deciding to end my 5-year Internet hiatus a year ago), have seen several talks given by authors and writers on the topic, and I’ve attended two Age of Limits conferences. Nevertheless, even though there were bloggers out there discussing the possible ramifications of low oil prices, its possibility still didn’t register with me. I’ll explain what I mean by that shortly, but to do that it’d be best […]

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URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/136929/US_Supreme_Court_Rejects_BP_Executives_Appeal WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear an appeal by a former BP Plc executive who contested whether he can be charged with obstruction of Congress for downplaying the severity of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Prosecutors say David Rainey misled members of Congress over the amount of oil spilled in the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon incident. Rainey’s legal argument on appeal was that the government missed the deadline to file an appeal after a district court judge dismissed his obstruction charge. He was also charged with making false statements to law enforcement agents, which was not at issue in his Supreme Court appeal. He has pleaded not guilty. In June 2014, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans said a lower court judge misinterpreted the obstruction statute in dismissing the charge against Rainey, a […]

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(Reuters) – The recent rout in oil prices could delay the onset of "peak oil demand," or zero global demand growth, by around five years to beyond 2030, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA) said. The bank had earlier expected that the continuation of high oil prices above $100 per barrel since 2011 would result in peak oil demand by 2025 as consumers moved to smaller and more fuel efficient cars. "Eventually, high prices would have led to substitution out of oil altogether, whether towards other cheaper fossil fuels like natural gas or out of fossil fuels and towards alternatives and renewables and switched to alternative or renewable fuel," BofA said in a note on Jan. 23. It now estimates that if prices stay in the $50 to $70 per barrel range over five years, peak demand would be pushed out past 2030. Crude oil prices LCOc1 CLc1 have […]

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In the past few weeks I have received numerous questions about the role of a “drop in demand” in the oil price decline. These questions are driven by many stories in the media that have referenced a drop in demand. There are two primary reasons given for this so-called demand drop. One is that years of high oil prices have resulted in reductions in consumption through conservation and improvements in vehicle fleet efficiency. The second reason is due to the strengthening dollar, oil has become more expensive for many countries since oil is generally traded in dollars. There are elements of truth behind both reasons. There has indeed been reduced oil consumption in recent years in most developed regions of the world. It is also true that the dollar has strengthened against many currencies. But despite the rationale that explains this drop in oil consumption, ultimately the data must […]

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Saudi Arabia’s Succession Line Is Set, but the Nation’s Path Remains Uncertain thumbnail Saudi Arabia’s new king moved with unprecedented swiftness on Friday to appoint not only the heir to his throne but the heir to his heir as well. If all proceeds according to plan — as most Saudis and some analysts assume it will — the chain of succession dictated by King Salman after the death of his half brother Abdullah lays out who will be the head of state of one of the Arab world’s richest and most influential nations through the middle of this century. Such a long-term road map represented a show of confidence in the national project, especially in an era when longtime Arab leaders have been tossed out by popular revolts and neighboring states like Iraq, Yemen and Syria are breaking apart. But analysts who study Saudi Arabia say that despite the […]

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A mountain of damaged oil drums near the Exxon Refinery. Photographer: John Messina. Environmental Protection Agency. (1972) via Wikimedia Commons. (orig published at Resilience Dec 2014) What the current oil price slump means for world oil supply is starting to emerge. "Layoffs," "cutbacks," "delays," and "cancellations" are words one sees in headlines concerning the oil industry every day. That can only mean one thing in the long run: less supply later on than would otherwise have been the case. But perhaps the most important thing you need to understand about the coming oil production cutbacks is where they are going to come from, namely Canada and the United States. Why is this important? For one very simple reason. Without growth in production from these two countries, world oil production ( crude oil plus lease condensate  which is  the definition of oil ) from the first quarter of 2005 through […]

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Or, What I’ve Learned in 12 Years Writing about Energy (7000 words, about 25 minutes reading time) Folks who pay attention to energy and climate issues are regularly treated to two competing depictions of society’s energy options. * On one hand, the fossil fuel industry claims that its products deliver unique economic benefits, and that giving up coal, oil, and natural gas in favor of renewable energy sources like solar and wind will entail sacrifice and suffering ( this gives a flavor of their argument ). Saving the climate may not be worth the trouble, they say, unless we can find affordable ways to capture and sequester carbon as we continue burning fossil fuels. On the other hand, at least some renewable energy proponents tell us there is plenty of wind and sun, the fuel is free, and the only thing standing between us and a climate-protected world of […]

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How we went from peak oil to too much oil thumbnail It’s not the worry we’ll run out of fossil fuels that’s the problem any more. Quite the opposite. Al Gore at Davos: “Companies are insisting on their right to use our atmosphere as an open sewer.” A third of oil reserves, half gas reserves and over 80% of coal must remain in the ground. If you remember the 20th Century, you probably remember people worrying we’d run out of fossil fuel. It’s a worry with a long and often over-hyped history. As Matt Novak neatly demonstrates , people have been wrong about running out of oil for well over a hundred years. In 1909, it was thought the oil age had 25 or 30 years longer. In 1919, it was two to five years. In 1937, the director of US naval petroleum reserves, told the Senate Naval Affairs […]

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IHS Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin speaks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keen about oil prices. They speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” How many victory laps? Do you feel like yes, i got it right? It is hard. Here, i remember people say you do not believe in peak oil. Not really. We have seen peak oil. It has been followed by a glut. New areas open up and new technology. U.s. oil production is up 80%. for our viewers in the middle east, in 1986, the price came down and went flat. Do you predict that again? There are analogies there.

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How does the economy really work? In my view, there are many erroneous theories in published literature. I have been investigating this topic and have come to the conclusion that both energy and debt play an extremely important role in an economic system. Once energy supply and other aspects of the economy start hitting diminishing returns, there is a serious chance that a debt implosion will bring the whole system down. In this post, I will look at the first piece of this story, relating to how the economy is tied to energy, and how the leveraging impact of cheap energy creates economic growth. Trying to tackle this topic is a daunting task. The subject crosses many fields of study, including anthropology, ecology, systems analysis, economics, and physics of a thermodynamically open system. It also involves reaching limits in a finite world. Most researchers have tackled the subject without […]

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Dow Jones Newswires By Gabriele Steinhauser The sharp drop in oil prices has already roiled markets and pummeled energy companies. But its impact on oil production and climate policies is likely to last years past the moment when prices have recovered. The shale boom in the U.S., where oil production has nearly doubled over the past 10 years, and the refusal of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output, have contributed to a glut on global energy markets. At the same time, low growth in Europe and emerging markets is holding down demand, upending long-held assumptions of scarcity and ever-increasing prices. "The expectations that have governed the world for over a decade have been overturned by a new reality," says Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of energy research firm IHS and author of several books on the global oil market. Since the beginning of the year, investment […]

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John Hofmeister attracted national attention in 2010 when he predicted that average U.S. gasoline prices would soar to $5 a gallon in 2012, thanks to rising crude oil prices. His forecast fell short, as the cost of filling up flirted with $4 in 2012, but never went higher. Now, with gasoline prices at $2.14, their lowest level since May 2009, the former president of Shell Oil is issuing another warning, telling motorists that their joy ride may end sooner than they think. “The next round of high prices is likely to start later this year, as crude rebounds to the $80s and $90s, perhaps pushing to the $100 level by late in the year or early next,” Hofmeister told me the other day after a trip to Calgary, where he was promoting natural gas as a transportation fuel. “The triggering mechanism will be global demand growth relative to how […]

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As oil prices continued to plunge last week, it was instructive to watch the disparate reactions of three governments whose whopping losses are likely to produce some of the biggest international stories of 2015. There was the panicked scrambling of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who skipped his own state of the union speech for a desperate world tour in search of loans or promises of $100 oil. He got neither, even as rumors flew back home about whether he would be allowed to stay in office on his return. Jackson Diehl is deputy editorial page editor of The Post. He is an editorial writer specializing in foreign affairs and writes a biweekly column that appears on Mondays. View Archive There was the cool response of Vladi­mir Putin, whose ministers announced drastic cuts in government spending — except for defense. Russia’s proxy forces in eastern Ukraine meanwhile launched a new offensive […]

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With the recent collapse in the price of oil, Gail Tverberg, returns to discuss the likely impact on the US shale oil industry, as well as the global market for oil. Gail is a professional actuary who applies classic risk assessment procedures to global resources: studying issues such as oil & natural gas depletion, water shortages, climate change, etc. These days, she writes at her website OurFiniteWorld.com . While as an actuary, Gail is one to avoid hyperbole and the let the numbers speak, her analysis of the outlook for future oil production is nothing short of dire: What we need is cheap energy. We need cheap, liquid oil. When it’s high-priced it really messes up the economy. We need oil to run our cars and to operate our trucks and such things, but it needs to be cheap. And it suddenly is today. But, you have to be able […]

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Photo: Berardo62. Cropped. Licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ During the 1990s, the oil price was around $10-20 a barrel. Petrol was cheap and SUVs and gas guzzlers were selling in record numbers. Oil company share prices were low and there was next to no oil exploration. Yet wells from the North Sea to Saudi Arabia were still producing oil — after all, once an oil well has been drilled, the costs of actually pumping out hydrocarbons are marginal. A perfect theory? But since there were few discoveries of oil, and as current reserves dried up, production inevitably fell. Round about the turn of the century, inventories started to slide and oil prices began to rise. These rises gathered momentum and soon the oil price was reaching all-time highs, peaking at $147 a barrel. The effects of these high commodity prices rippled around the world. The shares of companies like BP (LSE: BP.), Shell (LSE: RDSB) and Petrofac (LSE: PFC) soared. Lord Browne, at that […]

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Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Saudi Arabia isn’t the nicest ally to have. The desert kingdom just handed out   a sentence of  1,000 lashes to a blogger for running a website devoted to freedom of speech. Not exactly the kind of regime we want to have in our circle of friends, especially once you figure in their financial support for Islamic State and other radical Islamist groups. But you go to war with the allies you have, not the allies you wish you had. And in the global oil price war against Russia and Iran, Saudi Arabia is the U.S.’s indispensable ally. By continuing to pump the black stuff at an undiminished rate, the Saudis are repeating the trick they pulled in the mid-’80s, allowing oil prices to plunge in response to Western supply increases, thus depriving their rival (Iran) and ours (Russia) of revenue — and, in the process, […]

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The sharp drop in oil prices will benefit American consumers, many of the nation’s businesses and the economy as a whole. So why are stock market investors behaving as though oil under $50 a barrel and gasoline prices hovering around $2 a gallon are bad news? The overall market’s recent decline reflects more than just the free fall in oil prices. Overseas economies are struggling; last week, the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth to 3 percent from 3.4 percent. But fears about losses emanating from a devastated oil patch have weighed heavily on broad stock indexes, investment strategists say. This response appears to be a case of investors seizing on the industry’s highly visible losers while ignoring the far larger number of winners. “The stock market has reacted negatively, and some of that comes down to the fact that you can see what the impact is […]

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Renewable Resources Reach Their Limits thumbnail Can the world continue expanding its use of renewable resources at an increasing rate? Most likely not. Using a data set of over 25 resources researchers at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Yale University and Michigan State University demonstrate that several key resources have recently passed, at around the same time, their “peak-rate year” — the maximum increase year. A potential implication is that as substitution becomes arduous, global society’s expanding needs will be harder to fill. They explain this in an article published in the latest issue of the international journal Ecology and Society, and featured in the journal Nature’s Research Highlights this week. Landscape ecologists Prof. Dr. Ralf Seppelt, Dr. Ameur M. Manceur and plant ecologist Dr. Stefan Klotz from the UFZ analyzed the production and extraction rates of 27 global renewable and non-renewable resources together with economist Dr. […]

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Population: Not Leveling Off thumbnail When it comes to the party that is planet Earth, we might need to plan for a few extra guests, according to scientists. A new statistical projection concludes that the world population is unlikely to level off during the 21st century, leaving the planet to deal with as many as 13 billion human inhabitants—4 billion of those in Africa—by 2100. The analysis, formulated by U.N. and University of Washington (UW), Seattle, researchers, is the first of its kind to use modern statistical methods rather than expert opinions to estimate future birth rates, one of the determining factors in population forecasts. “The U.N. in the past has been criticized for not doing complete statistics on their data and now they’ve done it exactly right,” says demography researcher John Bongaarts, vice president of the Population Council in New York City, who was not involved in the […]

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. producer prices in December recorded their biggest fall in more than three years on tumbling energy costs while underlying inflation pressures were tame, a cautionary note for the Federal Reserve as it ponders its next step on monetary policy. The Labor Department said on Thursday its producer price index for final demand declined 0.3 percent, the biggest drop since October 2011, after falling 0.2 percent in November. "That makes the Fed’s job more difficult," said Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. "We expect inflation to slow … the Fed needs to be more cautious about raising interest rates." In the 12 months through December, prices at the factory gate increased 1.1 percent, the smallest gain since November 2013, after rising 1.4 percent in November. A broader measure of underlying producer inflation pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services edged […]

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Crude oil prices plunged to a six-year low Tuesday in a potentially painful threat to oil-exporting nations that rely on crude to power their economies. The drop brings some welcome relief to countries that have been struggling with economic headwinds, but brings a mixed bag for others, like the United States, that are both big producers and consumers of oil. Oil prices are still looking for a floor, in part because the persistent mismatch between global supply and demand continues even as big oil producers inside OPEC keep spooking the market by refusing to countenance any voluntary production cut. The energy minister for the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, Jan. 13, dismissed the idea that OPEC would cut production to boost prices and said it was up to other oil suppliers, such as the United States, to blink first. “Those who are producing the most expensive oil — the […]

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Cheaper oil is  good for the economy — it’s basically the equivalent of a tax cut. Unless it’s bad for the economy, which can be the case if falling prices spur deflation Continue Reading

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach said on Tuesday there is a possibility of a “true collapse” in U.S. capital expenditures and hiring if the price of oil stays at its current Continue Reading

ENLARGE The discovery of oil from shale rocks means that U.S. output is faster paced. Drilling and hydraulically fracturing a well takes weeks, not years. Minneapolis Star Tribune/Zuma Press A surge of oil from outside of the Middle East flooded global energy markets. The world-wide thirst for crude didn’t keep up. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stood by and watched as oil prices fell and then fell more. Welcome to the world of oil in 2015—a repeat in surprising ways of the story 30 years ago. Between November 1985 and March 1986, the price of crude plunged by 67%. Between June 2014 and today, crude prices have fallen by 57% and could well head lower. After the mid-1980s bust, it took nearly two decades for oil prices to rebound to pre-bust levels and remain there. Energy executives are now haunted by the question: Will it take as […]

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Turning tide image via shutterstock. Reproduced at Resilience.org with permission. From an oil chill in the financial world to the recent U.S.-China agreement on climate change, recent developments are raising a question that might once have been considered unthinkable: Could this be the beginning of a long, steady decline for the oil and coal industries? Boom may be turning to bust for fossil fuels. Market forces are combining with the prospect of new limits on carbon emissions from major economies such as China and the United States to prick the carbon bubble. Many analysts are now suggesting that — with prices falling and production costs rising — the coming year could be the moment when investors realize the game is up for the coal and oil industries. Nations found it hard to make progress at UN climate negotiations in Lima last year, making many observers skeptical of the prospects […]

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 When talking about the perils of climate change or resource depletion, soil degradation or fisheries collapse, water pollution or nuclear waste–how annoying it is to have one listener respond dismissively, "They’ll figure something out. They always have." It’s a nonsense rejoinder and yet, it often gains the assent of many–as if this assertion were a self-evident truth that only an enemy of progress would question. And, that’s where we’ll start examining the central contradiction in the modern outlook–with a statement that is offered as if it were a scientific fact, when, in truth, it is nothing more than a piece of dogma enunciated by the religion we call modernism. At first glance, the statement seems backward-looking because it asserts that we humans have always averted catastrophe through our ingenuity. But, of course, this is complete hogwash. History is replete with civilizations that have risen and then fallen, crumbling for […]

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The oil price crash coupled with growing concerns about global warming will encourage at least one of the major oil companies to turn its back on fossil fuels in the near future, predicts an award-winning scientist and former industry adviser. Dr Jeremy Leggett, who has had consultations on climate change with senior oil company executives over 25 years, says it will not be a rerun of the BP story when the company launched its “beyond petroleum” strategy and then did a U-turn . “One of the oil companies will break ranks and this time it is going to stick,” he said. “The industry is facing plunging commodity prices and soaring costs at risky projects in the Arctic, deepwater Brazil and elsewhere. “Oil companies are also realising it is no long morally defensible to ignore the consequences of climate change.” Leggett, now a solar energy entrepreneur and climate campaigner, points […]

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Posted:   01/10/2015 05:01:00 PM MST Gas prices are displayed at a gas station in Boston last week. (Steven Senne, The Associated Press) In Denver, gasoline dipped below $2 per gallon after Christmas, and I’ve heard rumors of $1.75. Most of us like this immensely. Not so the stock market, which has stumbled as oil prices have dipped below $50 per barrel. Cheap oil has also gummed up a variety of political arguments. Keystone XL is at the top of the news today, as it was last fall when many political candidates, from statehouse to Congress, ran on platforms seeking "energy security." This sounds suspiciously like code for giving drilling companies and pipeline transport companies just about everything they want. The argument on behalf of Keystone XL is that it will, with the help of the Canadians, deliver us from the capriciousness of "people who don’t like us," as […]

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The Cornucopians are exuberant, they believe that collapsing of oil prices dealt the death knell for peak oil. An oil glut, they say, is what we have, not peak oil. But an oil glut is exactly what we would expect at the very peak. After all, that is what peak oil is, that is the the point in time when the world produces more oil than ever in history… and the most it ever will produce. I am of the firm conviction that the world is at the peak of world oil production right now, or was at that point three or four months ago. I think history will show that the 12 months of September 2014 through August 2015 will be the one year peak. Whether the calendar year peak is 2014 or 2015 is the only thing still in question, or that is my opinion anyway. The […]

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The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. But an important twist to that pearl of Houston wisdom is that the real cure is prices way lower than anyone expected. It is when oil drops far below levels budgeted by exploration and production companies that rigs get idled, curbing supply growth and supporting prices. Yet the U.S. oil rig count has fallen by only 8% since early October. On that front, the latest outlook for E&P spending from Evercore ISI offers some hope to a sector with precious little right now. Since 2000, they have tracked the industry’s oil-price expectations. Last year was the first time that the sector overestimated the average oil price, guessing around $90 a barrel versus the outcome of about $76. Usually, the price has come in above expectations. The sector kicked off 2015 expecting oil to average $77.55 a barrel, ISI says. […]

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The Cornucopians are exuberant, they believe that collapsing of oil prices dealt the death knell for peak oil. An oil glut, they say, is what we have, not peak oil. But an oil glut is exactly what we would expect at the very peak. After all, that is what peak oil is, that is the the point in time when the world produces more oil than ever in history… and the most it ever will produce. I am of the firm conviction that the world is at the peak of world oil production right now, or was at that point three or four months ago. I think history will show that the 12 months of September 2014 through August 2015 will be the one year peak. Whether the calendar year peak is 2014 or 2015 is the only thing still in question, or that is my opinion anyway. The […]

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Resilience Published on Resilience (http://www.resilience.org) The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016? Newspapers in the United States seem to emphasize the positive aspects of the drop in prices. I have written Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem . If our only problem were high oil prices, then low oil prices would seem to be a solution. Unfortunately, the problem we are encountering now is extremely low prices. If prices continue at this low level, or go even lower, we are in deep trouble with respect to future oil extraction. It seems to me that the situation is much more worrisome than most people would expect. Even if there are some temporary good effects, they will be more than offset by bad effects, some of which could be very bad indeed. We may be reaching limits […]

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Summary Analysis points to US production peaking in late April. Oil rig reduction is accelerating. Current two week decline in EIA estimates not too unusual. Canadian rig count down 66% year over year. Current oil rig count 1482. Estimated production breakeven rigs required: 1267. Shale oil wells deplete much faster than traditional wells. This article attempts to determine the number of rigs that need to be deployed in order to neither increase nor decrease the US production of oil. To estimate a ballpark peak date and ballpark breakeven number of rigs in this cycle, one needs to: 1. Estimate the number of barrels that are produced in a given week, given a known number of oil rigs in operation. 2. Estimate the rate of depletion (that is, to estimate the amount of additional depletion expressed as a percentage of peak production as a function of time that occurs as […]

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Summary Analysis points to US production peaking in late April. Oil rig reduction is accelerating. Current two week decline in EIA estimates not too unusual. Canadian rig count down 66% year over year. Current oil rig count 1482. Estimated production breakeven rigs required: 1267. Shale oil wells deplete much faster than traditional wells. This article attempts to determine the number of rigs that need to be deployed in order to neither increase nor decrease the US production of oil. To estimate a ballpark peak date and ballpark breakeven number of rigs in this cycle, one needs to: 1. Estimate the number of barrels that are produced in a given week, given a known number of oil rigs in operation. 2. Estimate the rate of depletion (that is, to estimate the amount of additional depletion expressed as a percentage of peak production as a function of time that occurs as […]

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Happy New Year to readers around the world! For the past 5 or 6 years, I have begun the year by making predictions for the upcoming year in the energy markets. I am generally happy if I can hit on 60-80% of them. In 2014 I went 5 for 5 , but I can say with a fair amount of confidence that this is a feat that’s unlikely to be repeated for 2015. The reason for this is that I see a lot of uncertainty in the energy markets at this point. There are many changing variables right now, and the direction on several fronts is unclear. And if you look at some of the predictions others have made, that becomes obvious. I have seen predictions of $30 per barrel (bbl) oil and $100/bbl oil, and some suggesting that we would see both extremes. I have also seen people […]

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The global benchmark Brent crude oil price index slipped below $50 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time in five years, continuing the dramatic plunge that has seen oil prices halved since last June. Stock markets in oil-rich countries keep tumbling, while some analysts interpret the fall — which has brought a windfall to Americans at the fuel pump — as signaling an imminent financial crisis and potential economic slowdown. While not easily explained by a single cause, the price cut is widely believed to reflect slackening economic growth and weakening demand from major consumers such as China coupled with an increase in supply due to booming U.S. shale production. Analysts expect the downward trend to continue unless the world’s major producers, especially the Gulf state members of OPEC, move to cut their output in order to stabilize prices — an option they’ve avoided for now.  In the […]

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The dawn of agriculture marked a huge turning point for human civilization.  At that point, when we, as a species (for the most part), abandoned the age-old concept of the so-called “Hunter-Gatherer” lifestyle in favor of putting down roots (pun very much intended), there were somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 million people on Earth.  It then took us around 10,000 years for that number to reach 1 billion around the turn of the 19th Century.  Now, a mere 200 years later, our population has absolutely exploded to the tune of over 7 billion people, and that growth was made possible by one thing: the cheap, plentiful energy provided by fossil fuels, oil chief among them. We’ve talked about Peak Oil Theory many times here on Backwoods Survival Blog ; it remains a future threat, even though the exact nature of that threat has changed over time (more on […]

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At the essential center of the framework of the Crash Course is the almost insultingly simple idea that endless growth on a finite planet is an impossibility. It is so simple it could be worked out by a clever 4 year-old. And yet it must not be so simple because the main narrative of every economy in every corner of the globe rests on the idea of endless, infinite growth. Various rationalizations and mental dodges are made in people’s minds to accommodate the principle of endless growth.  Some avoid thinking of it all together.  Some think that perhaps we will escape into space, and continue our growthful ways on some other yet-to-be named planet(s).  Most simply assume that some new wondrous technology will arise that can allow us to avoid pesky limits. Whatever the rationalization, none stand up well to simple math and cold logic. At the very heart […]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The CEO of the oil and gas industry’s top lobbying arm says plunging oil prices may hurt American companies in the short run. But American Petroleum Institute CEO Jack Gerard says increased U.S. production and dropping oil prices also mean the U.S. is on its way to being a global leader in oil production. He says falling prices have empowered the United States and weakened OPEC and Russia. Gerard says the U.S. needs to maintain the right policies to secure a future that allows it to control its own interests. He says the nation should lift a ban on exporting crude oil in order to serve growing global demand. Gerard spoke at a "State of American Energy Event" in Washington.

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It’s looking increasingly likely that we’ve reached peak car , the point at which overall automobile usage tops out. The U.S. and Europe appear to be at that point now; the rest of the world may follow within a decade . You’d think that would spell trouble for the privately owned car—a future of waning use and perhaps eventual extinction. Think again. Peak car is the result of some major trends that look to marks the biggest change in automobile use since Henry Ford, as the car evolves from a huge piece of standalone hardware in a garage to a computerized network tool for the 21st century. Auto Use Really Is Down Peak car represents a major U-turn on thinking from just five years ago. That’s when transportation researchers forecast that the world was headed full-throttle towards global gridlock in the next 20 years , with the number of vehicles on […]

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Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive up the price. On Thanksgiving Day, 2014 Saudi Arabia decided to maintain their crude oil output of approximately 9.5 million barrels per day. They’ve taken this action despite the fact that they know the world’s oil markets are currently over-supplied by an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day and the severe financial pain it is causing many of the other OPEC nations. By now you are all aware this has caused a sharp drop […]

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This Oil Thing Is The Real Deal thumbnail Well! WTI below $50 and Brent below $53 when I start writing this. Who knows where they’ll be by the time I’m finished?! The euro down below $1.20, US stocks flirting with -2%, major European ones off -3%, Italy and Greece over -5%. Welcome to the real world, baby! Didn’t think you’d see it again so soon, did you? Welcome to the world where the Kool-Aid recovery does not reign supreme. Not that you’re not going to hear that anymore, and 24/7 incessantly so, but there’s no recovery with these oil prices, no matter what anybody says. The damage must be gargantuan by now. Everybody’s invested in oil. Sure, lots of shorts and stuff by now, but that’s not going to do much good. Not for pensions funds, or for governments. This thing will not blow up or over softly. There’s […]

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Oil prices are plunging even lower today . WTI crude is down below $50 per barrel for the first time since 2009. That’s already down by more than half since the beginning of 2014, a development almost no one saw coming. It begs the question: What is the lowest possible low for oil right now? One answer — which will terrify countries that are big oil-producers like Russia and Venezuela — is that there’s no insurmountable reason that oil couldn’t sink as low as just $20 a barrel. It’s already been there, after all. Fifty dollar oil is already having an amazing effect: Russia’s ruble has gone through the floor , and that nation is now in an economic crisis because of it, Venezuela is also in a major political and economic crisis , and the tumbling prices are likely to drive the eurozone into deflation soon , if […]

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NEW YORK (Reuters) – As a war of nerves between U.S. shale producers and Gulf powerhouses intensifies, OPEC’s biggest members are counting down the months until their upstart rivals lose the one thing shielding them from crashing oil prices – hedges. They may need much more patience than they reckon, however, because those hedges are a moving target. Rather than wait for their price insurance to run out, many companies are racing to revamp their policies, cashing in well-placed hedges to increase the number of future barrels hedged, according to industry consultants, bankers and analysts familiar with the deals. OPEC officials hope that once U.S. oil companies get fully exposed to the impact of an over 50 percent slide in crude prices since last June, they will have to drill fewer new wells, causing U.S. production growth to stall and putting a floor under oil prices now testing $50 […]

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The most attention-grabbing attempts to predict oil futures have come from geologists and environmental activists, who tend to look solely at production. An overlooked doctoral thesis by Christophe McGlade, Uncertainties in the outlook for oil and gas , in contrast, focuses on how both supply and demand might be constrained in the coming decades. Peak oil researchers should take note of McGlade’s thesis because he predicted, in November 2013, that oil prices would sink, and that they will stay low throughout the second half of this decade. I found this paper on Google Scholar and have no connection with the author, but I appreciate his careful consideration of peak oil arguments, and his ability to distance himself from the more narrow-minded aspects of both economic and geological thinking. Here’s a representative quote from the middle of the thesis, p. 216: The focus of much of the discussion of peak […]

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