Graham Palmer, an industrial engineer from Melbourne, discusses energy use and needs. He predicts that the declining energy surplus of fossil fuels will be one of the defining features of energy systems in the twenty first century. ABC Name (required) Email Address (required) Website
There has been considerable discussion lately as to whether or not total collapse of the world’t economies will happen in the relatively near future. I think that is the wrong question. Let me explain. Ecological collapse of the world’s ecosystem is a lead pipe cinch. It is already well underway and instead of slowing down, it is gaining momentum fast. Here are just a few examples from recent news. ‘Peak soil’ threatens future global food security “Under business as usual, the current soils that are in agricultural production will yield about 30 percent less than they would do otherwise by around 2050.” Surging food consumption has led to more intensive production, overgrazing and deforestation, all of which can strip soil of vital nutrients and beneficial micro-organisms, reduce its ability to hold water and make it more vulnerable to erosion. Such factors, exacerbated by climate change, can ultimately lead to […]
As U.S. and EU policymakers have imposed targeted sanctions on Russian individuals and firms in response to the crisis in Ukraine, Western companies have sought to insulate their own projects from the political imbroglio and continue developing the country’s vast oil and gas resources. Exxon Mobil and Shell have joint ventures with Rosneft and Gazprom respectively to explore and produce shale oil and gas from beneath the swampy plains of Western Siberia and both want to be allowed to continue operating there. It’s easy to see why. The West Siberian basin is the largest petroleum basin in the world, covering 2.2 million square kilometres between the Ural Mountains and Yenisei River, extending from Kazakhstan in the south to under parts of the Kara Sea in the north. The region contains dozens of super-giant and giant oilfields, including Samotlor with 28 billion barrels of oil originally in place, and Urengoy […]
How Can We Feed Billions More People? One out of every eight people in the world goes hungry. The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, which calculated this figure , has also reported that 852 million of these 870 million hungry people live in developing countries. Worse, the world population will likely balloon from its present 7.1 billion to 9.6 billion by 2050 . Scientists say this will be coupled with a projected doubling in demand for crops by that same year. Researchers at the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment now argue in a Science paper, however, that it is possible to feed at least 3 billion more people—with existing cropland. These researchers claim that a “small set of regions, crops, and actions” could “provide strategic global opportunities to increase yields, reduce the environmental impact of agriculture, and deliver food more efficiently from what is already grown.” […]
Love it or hate it, British multinational oil and gas company BP ( NYSE:BP ) is one the world’s top institutional experts on energy. Besides being a business leader in its industry — the sixth largest integrated oil company (IOC) by market cap in 2013 — the supermajor is at the forefront of the semi-commercial, semi-academic conversation about the future of energy use at large. Since 1952, BP has offered a share of its two cents in the form of an annual statistical review , the aim of which is to share data and insight about current energy markets and where the world could be heading. The report proper is somewhat dense and is generally only partially digested, if at all, by the media, but the 2013 review contained a few salient points that were thrust into the spotlight. First, and most broadly, was this insight: Demand growth for […]
Researchers from the ICTA-UAB and the University of Maryland (UMD) demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (‘Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors. References Christian Kerschner, Christina Prell, Kuishuang Feng, Klaus Hubacek (2013). Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil , Global Environmental Change. While critics of Peak Oil studies declare that the world has more than enough oil to maintain current national and global standards, these researchers from ICTA-UAB and UMD say Peak Oil is imminent, if not already here—and is a real threat to national and global economies. Their study is among the first to outline a way of assessing the vulnerabilities of specific economic sectors to this threat, and to identify focal points for action that could strengthen the U.S. […]
They should be magicians. Successful magic depends on the artist being able to distract the viewers from the sleight-of-hand performed. Keep them preoccupied with one topic or one item and it’s then much simpler to create the illusion of magic. Peak oil deniers are a lot like that. Toss out some carefully massaged facts bearing the imprint of near-truths but without context (just to be safe), engage in a pattern of irrelevancies to help muddy the waters, toss in some meaningless numbers while carefully shielding the important ones from the discussion, and presto! No more peak oil theories. But as with magic, the show must end. We walk back out into the light and back into reality, where some of us still believe that facts matter. Perhaps not today while the Happy Talk keeps everyone entertained, but soon enough that show will end as well, and then the realities—good […]
The story of America’s new energy abundance has been accepted uncritically by too many people. A closer look at the realities of today and the last decade, coupled with a better understanding of our energy and oil systems, reveals risks that must be discussed and included in planning for the years ahead. This brief paper presents key information on the role of oil in the economy, the fact that world oil production has not increased meaningfully since 2005, the failure of high prices to create new supplies, the nature and limits of the oil being produced through fracking, the global challenges to oil supplies, and the likelihood that the United States will never be a net oil exporter again or truly “energy independent.” People who are part of the energy or economic debate – whether as policy makers, […]
A couple of posts or so ago I mentioned that there are three major problems sitting relatively un-noticed as we head into the mess of Peak Oil. Of these, perhaps the one that gets the least attention is the steady decline in production from existing wells. We are just about at the point where the Alaskan Pipeline will tip over into feeding less than half-a-million barrels a day down from the North Slope. (It sent 501 kbd down the pipe in June with a 98.6% reliability factor). At the same time those in control of the oilfields in the Russia are reporting that Russian exports have fallen to the lowest level in 6 years . This brings back the relatively unrecognized reality of the Export Land Model which Jeffrey Brown first introduced on The Oil Drum back in 2007. It is […]
General Ideas This week no energy relevant developments came out of Iraq. The Islamic State seems to be still consolidating its territories, facing scant opposition from the Baghdad government. But the spectacular advances seem to be done with, at least for now. Few western media outlets are able to properly report the situation, with gory news now focusing on Israel and Gaza. The news meat-grinder has recently been profuse in news regarding the breakaway of the BRICS from the IMF and other OECD controlled institutions. This was a setting trend but that has been accelerated by the backlash of the US spying programme and, more importantly, by the intervention of NATO in Ukraine. In the midst of all this comes almost unnoticed what is probably the most important energy news of 2014: Petroleum extraction in Russia has definitely peaked. Russian authorities are openly bracing for the ensuing decline in […]
With the introduction of unconventional oil sources, predicting peak oil has become almost impossible, the executive argues “The global energy map is quickly being redrawn,” says Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency. “What we are seeing is an oil boom that shows no sign of slowing” she adds. For energy analysts across the world, the IEA is the premiere source of industry intelligence, producing market reports and events that address all segments of the energy sector. This 360-degree viewpoint, coupled with the agency’s fervent relationships with the world’s biggest energy players, gives its staff unequalled insight into the world’s energy markets. According to van der Hoeven, global energy demand will increase by around 30% by 2035, with oil contributing to around 27% of total energy usage by this date. While she admits increased use of natural gas will result in a slight fall […]
Twenty-First-Century Energy Wars Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, South Sudan, Ukraine, the East and South China Seas: wherever you look, the world is aflame with new or intensifying conflicts. At first glance, these upheavals appear to be independent events, driven by their own unique and idiosyncratic circumstances. But look more closely and they share several key characteristics — notably, a witch’s brew of ethnic, religious, and national antagonisms that have beenstirred to the boiling point by a fixation on energy. In each of these conflicts, the fighting is driven in large part by the eruption of long-standing historic antagonisms among neighboring (often intermingled) tribes, sects, and peoples. In Iraq and Syria, it is a clash among Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Turkmen, and others; in Nigeria, among Muslims, Christians, and assorted tribal groupings; in South Sudan, between the Dinka and Nuer; in Ukraine, between Ukrainian loyalists and Russian-speakers aligned with Moscow; in the […]
For many years, a number of industry experts have been sounding the alarm that America, and the world, are about to run out of oil. This is nothing new. In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. The Interior Department said global reserves would last 13 years… and that was in 1939. In 1956, Shell Oil geoscientist Marion King Hubbert advanced his peak oil theory, which said that world oil production had peaked and would begin to decline until all of the oil was gone. Every expert who’s predicted “the end of oil” has been wrong in the past. But with global energy consumption at an all-time high, and much of the world’s economy dependent on oil, the question needs to be asked: Are we about to run out of oil?… The Peak Oil Theory Hubbert, whose […]
In today’s world, we have a huge amount of debt outstanding. Academic researchers Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have become famous for their book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and their earlier paper This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises . Their point, of course, is that the same thing happens over and over again. We can learn from past crises to solve our current problems. Part of their story is of course correct. Governments have gotten themselves into problems with debt, time after time. This is happening again now. In fact, the same two authors recently prepared a working paper for the International Monetary Fund called Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Some Lessons Forgotten , talking about ideas such as governments inflating their way out of debt problems and pushing problems off to insurance […]
There are, simply, three major parts to the coming global economic mess that will be created as we enter into the period of Peak Oil. The first of these comes from the current rising demand for oil, particularly emphasized by those countries, such as China and India, where demand is rising fastest. The second part is the declining production from existing fields as their reserves are drawn down. (Though it should be remembered that even when “exhausted” the fields will still contain vast quantities of oil, but oil which is at present not economically recoverable). And finally there is the oil in the undeveloped, and undiscovered wells and fields that can be added to the existing reserve to help ameliorate the imbalance between demand and supply from existing wells. The high decline rates from long horizontal wells drilled into, and along the shale deposits in the United States, most […]
Whenever I present a course, someone will inevitably ask: “When, exactly, do you think we will run out of oil?” “Never!” is always my response. The world will never run out of oil. “But”, they protest, “I saw a report about it on TV”. “I saw a YouTube video about it”. “My science teacher showed us a graph”…… When Professor Marion King Hubbert made his predictions almost sixty years ago that US oil production would peak in the mid 1970s and decline thereafter (and so also by the same reasoning would World oil production), little did he realise what consternation he would create! The truth of the matter is that his analysis and predictions were based on proven reserves from conventional oil fields. And it is true, production from these types of fields did indeed start to decline in the 70s much […]
The Return of the Bad Old Days of Oil Shocks And we thought the bad old days of oil shocks were over. Embargoes, price spikes, gasoline lines in America, a sweater-bedecked president ordering the end of hot water in many facilities, collapsing retail sales as high gasoline and energy prices hit stores as much as a big tax increase would, economic stagflation, or worse. Well, it just might be that we were wrong to believe that danger to our continued prosperity has been removed with the death of theories about “Peak oil.” Certainly, the takeover of part of Iraq by ISIS forces, variously called “militants,” “terrorists,” “gangsters,” and in White House circles thought to be disaffected Sunnis aching to participate in the government of a democratic Iraq, has set nerves jangling among energy planners. True, most of Iraq’s oil production, at around 3 million barrels per day the second […]
From Dr John Howard Wilhelm. Sir, Your assertion that Peak Oil is dead and that US output of liquid petroleum has regained its previous peak reached in 1970 should not go unchallenged (“ Looking past the death of Peak Oil ”, Editorial, June 17). According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, US field production of crude oil in 1970 was 9.6m barrels a day. For 2013 it was 7.4m b/d. That is, in 2013 US crude oil production stood at 77 per cent of its annual 1970 peak. More IN Letters If one looks at the facts, the situation is far more fraught than implied by your analysis later in the piece. Earlier data from the Bakken oilfield indicated that annual production per well averaged 85,000 barrels a year initially with a decline rate of 40 per cent a year, which implies on a compounded basis 856 […]
Post Carbon Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg was interviewed on peak oil and energy transition options at RT. 3 Comments on "Heinberg on peak oil and options for energy transition" Davey on Fri, 20th Jun 2014 8:17 am Energy transition will have to include drastic changes in attitudes and lifestyles. This will “Only” happen with a ground shaking crisis where BAU still functions but at a precarious level. After all we are on a knife edge of collapse from here on out. Collapse means little energy to zero energy in many locations. Last crisis sooner the better spoken objectively. On the subjective side “BAU” if you can hear me I need 2 years please. Obama had a bit of straightforwardness yesterday : “It is in our national security interests not to see an all-out civil war inside of Iraq, not just for humanitarian reasons, but because that ultimately can be […]
Those of us who have some grasp of the urgent dilemmas posed by climate change and peak oil face a terrible conundrum. The whole system of industrial civilization is moving toward collapse. How can we reverse course to avert an unprecedented series of crises that might entail massive human mortality and the more or less permanent crippling of planetary ecosystems? I can think of two broad strategies: Top down. Convince the folks in charge that it’s in their interest to change direction—that is, to reorganize financial, food, transport, and manufacturing systems on a no-growth, low-carbon model. Advantage: this audience at least theoretically has the power to organize a comprehensive and rapid energy descent. Recall the rapidity with which the US re-organized its economy at the start of World War II. Disadvantages: the elites’ incentives are all in the current direction of growth-at-any-cost, many of the key players remain in […]
General Ideas Mason Inman recently posted an excellent 2012 interview he conducted with James Schlesinger, our nation’s first Secretary of Energy, who passed away shortly before that posting. [Quotes here are from that interview.] There are some lessons available to all of us. Mr. Schlesinger was a bit more direct than I and others have been in urging more effort from the public to recognize the challenges ahead. Sometimes the truth is just the truth, plain as can be. While we’d all like to believe/hope/wish that the bigger problems can be handled by others without our involvement, life tends not to work that way very often. Reality is what it is, and if we are going to prepare ourselves for inevitable changes which will certainly affect each and every one of us even though that may not be at all clear today, then we all need to step up […]
Advances in technology will continue to ensure that there are adequate reserves of oil and gas, as fears over supply recede, according to BP’s head of technology, David Eyton. Addressing the 21st World Petroleum Congress in Moscow, Eyton said that generally speaking the theory of peak oil has had its time. There may be other reasons for demand declines, but technology has enabled an increase in reserves. The industry has an excellent track record to increase production and replace reserves, enabled by a sustained high oil price and technology developments over the last 30 years, he said. The potential to enhance oil recovery from reservoirs is very significant, he said, adding that the average oil recovery rate from reserves in the world today is estimated about 35%. “You […]
Advances in technology will continue to ensure that there are adequate reserves of oil and gas, as fears over supply recede, according to BP’s head of technology, David Eyton. Addressing the 21st World Petroleum Congress in Moscow, Eyton said that generally speaking the theory of peak oil has had its time. There may be other reasons for demand declines, but technology has enabled an increase in reserves. The industry has an excellent track record to increase production and replace reserves, enabled by a sustained high oil price and technology developments over the last 30 years, he said. The potential to enhance oil recovery from reservoirs is very significant, he said, adding that the average oil recovery rate from reserves in the world today is estimated about 35%. “You […]
So Peak Oil is dead, yeah? Well, to a point. The Financial Times editorializes that while the “bell-curve” theory of production has been broadly disproved, the oil price remains stubbornly high because Peakists were right about the easy oil having been already found and drilled. North America is on course to produce 20% of the world’s oil supply by the end of this decade, and become a “titan of unprecedented proportions” in oil-products markets. So says the International Energy Agency, which points out that just a decade ago the U.S. was the largest importer of refined products. All this is thanks to that shale revolution, of course. U.S. crude-oil production in 2013 increased by a massive 15% from a year earlier , reaching the highest level since oil tycoons looked like Larry Hagman . In 2015, output should be close to the 1970 historical peak. The effect has been so […]
With the June 16 release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, there is some continuing good news. The end of oil and natural gas is still at least a half-century or more away. The reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios for both fossil fuels are well above 50 years. The end of oil is further away than ever. Back in 1980, the R/P ratio (a.k.a., time to depletion at current production rates) for global oil reserves was less than 30 years — now it has increased to more than 53 years. In other words, over the past 35 years we have been discovering new oil reserves at a far faster rate than we have been depleting old reserves. 14 Comments on "End of Oil and Gas Still Many Decades Away" No, we’ve simply been adding things to the list of what we call “oil.” As I said elsewhere, the […]
Little more that a year after the International Energy Agency added its voice to the chorus chiming that peak oil was dead , a new report from the uconservative adviser to industrialised nations suggests it has changed its tune. Only this time it is not peak supply that is on its radar, but peak demand. The IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 has predicted that global growth in oil demand may start to slow down as soon as the end of this decade, due to environmental concerns and cheaper alternatives, and despite boosting its 2014 forecast of global demand by 960,000 barrels per day. oil comp While supply is forecast to remain strong – thanks largely to the unconventional, or “tight” oil revolution currently underway in north America – the IEA says it expects the global market to hit an “inflexion point”, by the end of 2019, “after which […]
Production has not peaked, but prices could be volatile Peak Oil is dead. The news that US output of liquid petroleum has regained its previous peak , reached in 1970, is enough to read the last rites over the idea that a region’s oil production will follow a shape like a bell curve, rising to a peak and then inexorably falling away. Much of the theorising about Peak Oil failed to anticipate technological progress, or understand the power of economic incentives. The US boom in production from previously uncommercial shale reserves has been made possible by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, and made a reality by oil prices that 15 years ago barely seemed possible. More On this topic Editorial Yet while the strong form of the Peakists’ argument can be consigned to the dustbin of history, they were not entirely wrong. Producing oil has become harder, […]
Production has not peaked, but prices could be volatile Peak Oil is dead. The news that US output of liquid petroleum has regained its previous peak , reached in 1970, is enough to read the last rites over the idea that a region’s oil production will follow a shape like a bell curve, rising to a peak and then inexorably falling away. Much of the theorising about Peak Oil failed to anticipate technological progress, or understand the power of economic incentives. The US boom in production from previously uncommercial shale reserves has been made possible by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, and made a reality by oil prices that 15 years ago barely seemed possible. More On this topic Editorial Yet while the strong form of the Peakists’ argument can be consigned to the dustbin of history, they were not entirely wrong. Producing oil has become harder, […]
“After years of talking about it, we are finally poised to control our own energy future.” Obama in 2013 State of The Union address. The myth of American energy independence from fracking has been dealt a huge blow by the downgrade of recoverable oil from the Monterey shale formation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slashed its estimate of oil reserves from the Monterey shale formation by a massive 96%. In 2011 the EIA released a report that reviewed US shale oil and gas reserves. It stated that the largest shale oil formation in America was the Monterey play in Southern California. The report estimated that the Monterey shale formation held 15.5 billion barrels of oil or 64% of total U.S. shale oil reserves. California’s vast shale deposits were labelled ”black gold” due to this forecast. On the basis of this rosy review the University of California produced […]
Wall Street is the government, and the New York Times is right across town. Maybe that’s all you need to know to understand what’s happened. In January, 2011, this writer published a four-part article entitled “ The War: Did We Sacrifice a Million Lives and a $Trillion Cash Just to Hand Our Jobs to China? ” It was long (around 40 pages) and I must admit a little confusing, because the information was so stunning that I had a difficult time understanding what I was reading. The gist of the article was that Big Oil had asked Congress in 1998 to remove the Taliban so as to allow the building of a pipeline that would let Mideastern oil go to “the right markets.” “The right markets”? Guess. The US and Europe, of course. Wrong. India and China. Those, it was explained, were “the right markets” because the oil market was stagnating in the US […]
When they got you over barrel — what are you gonna do? You pull up, and you pay their latest price … petro, you gotta have it. The turmoil in Iraq pushed up U.S. and world oil prices about 4% this week . The U.S. benchmark crude oil, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $106.91 a barrel, up 38 cents on Friday. Brent, the international benchmark, rose 31 cents to $113.41.The IEA [International Energy Agency] has forecast that Iraq, which has the world’s fifth-largest proven oil reserves, would account for 60% of production growth from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the rest of this decade. Iraq , now producing about 3.3 million barrels a day, has become OPEC’s second-largest producer , after Saudi Arabia. Even if the fighting stays in Iraq’s north, the IEA sees an […]
Harvard economist Morris Adelman , famous for saying that we will never run out of oil, died last month. What followed the announcement of his death was a predictable set of encomiums like this one from defenders of the oil industry extolling Adelman’s infinite wisdom. Some (including my father, it seems) were so caught up in the odd celebratory mood–one that resurfaces every time people contemplate just how much stuff there is in the universe–that Adelman’s rather narrow and almost meaningless dictum was being offered as the basis for a complete energy policy. (And, never mind that that energy policy makes absolutely no mention of climate change.) All of this makes sense only if you keep yourself from […]
There has been considerable discussion regarding what price crude would advance to if Iraq were to be taken offline, and no substitution occurred. Using the ETP model we have built the chart below. The left hand column gives the loss in mb/d, the right what the price would advance to if that occurred. Prices may advance over the short term to higher levels, but will settle at the values below. Prices are rounded to the nearest dollar. mb/d loss Price $ 1……………….$139 2…………………159 3…………………178 3.3 ……………..185 Perk Earl on Sat, 14th Jun 2014 12:09 pm Pickens two hundred seems wildly high. We have to keep in mind that as price rises from here, those that can deliver spare capacity will, even if they only can short term, to take advantage […]
The latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources proves that the oil and gas majors are in deep trouble. Over the last decade, rising oil prices have been driven primarily by rising production costs. After the release of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook last November, Deutsche Bank’s former head of energy research Mark Lewis noted that massive levels of investment have corresponded to an ever declining rate of oil supply increase: "Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance." Since 2000, the oil industry’s investments have risen by 180% – […]
Coal power via eutrophication&hypoxia/flickr. Creative Commons. Three things you shouldn’t miss this week Chart: Mapping the US carbon cap. Necessary emission reductions for existing power plants broken down by state: Source: Source: SNL Article : Solar to match coal in China by 2016, threatening fossil dominance – Wuxi Suntech Power expects the cost of electricity from solar modules match to coal-powered stations in China as soon as 2016. Commentary: The Global Energy Market’s Moment of Truth – this is not a temporary market blip but a fundamental shift. Is the writing finally on the wall for fossil fuels? In the last fortnight we’ve seen new rules on coal emissions in the US, the prospect of a cap on coal consumption in China, and a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighting the risks to fossil fuel investment. Though the focus of the IEA report was energy investment, what came […]
Sixty years ago, a man stood in front of a crowd that had gathered at a small hotel in San Antonio. Minutes before approaching the podium, however, he was quietly ushered off the stage to take an urgent phone call. On the other end of the line was a PR rep for one of the largest oil companies in the world, begging him not to give his speech. Luckily, Dr. Marion King Hubbert wasn’t persuaded. He went on to deliver what was arguably the most important oil prediction since Edwin Drake first drilled a hole into the Pennsylvanian soil in search of salt brine. Essentially, Dr. Hubbert believed there would be a point in time when oil production in the U.S. would peak and begin to decline. Even though his work became the basis for the peak oil theory, far too many people haven’t realized that this isn’t a […]
Recently, the IEA published a “Special Report” called World Energy Investment Outlook . Lets’s start with things I agree with: 1. World needs $48 trillion in investment to meet its energy needs to 2035. This is certainly true, if we assume, as the IEA assumes , that world economic growth will actually improve a bit, from 3.3% per year in the 1990 to 2011 period to 3.6% per year in the 2011 to 2035 period. It is likely that the growth in investment needs will be even higher than the IEA indicates. In my view, this is a CYA report . The IEA sees trouble ahead. There is no way that investment of the needed amount (which is likely far more than $48 trillion) can be met. With the publication of this report, the IEA can say, “We told you so. You didn’t invest enough. That is why energy supply […]
Sixty years ago, a man stood in front of a crowd that had gathered at a small hotel in San Antonio. Minutes before approaching the podium, however, he was quietly ushered off the stage to take an urgent phone call. On the other end of the line was a PR rep for one of the largest oil companies in the world, begging him not to give his speech. Luckily, Dr. Marion King Hubbert wasn’t persuaded. He went on to deliver what was arguably the most important oil prediction since Edwin Drake first drilled a hole into the Pennsylvanian soil in search of salt brine. Essentially, Dr. Hubbert believed there would be a point in time when oil production in the U.S. would peak and begin to decline. Even though his work became the basis for the peak oil theory, far too many people haven’t realized that this isn’t a […]
US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that “ peak oil idea has gone up in flames .” But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. The agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook released this week says that US tight […]
Several weeks ago, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) made big news by severely reducing its estimate of recoverable oil from California’s huge Monterey Shale formation. This change in calculation by some guys sitting at desks in Washington DC led to a very predictable series of misleading stories with sensationalized headlines like this one from the Los Angeles times, this one from Reuters, and this one from the UK Guardian. The change in calculation also temporarily emboldened the Usual Suspects in the cultish Peak Oil movement, resulting in an array of celebratory Tweets and blog postings at a variety of sites around the web. So why bring this up now? Well, as I was tooling around the web early this morning, I noted the passing of the famous energy economist Morris Adelman. Dr. Adelman actually died peacefully at his home in Newton, Mass. on May 8, but the New […]
The United States has built a broad economic recovery hopes achieved finally in oil and gas production the Rocky, but these reserves will dry from the third decade of the twenty-first century, to return to dependence on Gulf oil, the International Energy Agency also predicted, she wondered whether the Gulf States are ready to take the job again. The past few years have seen a radical shift in the accounts of the United States with the bravado of its experts to come to the Renaissance oil and achieve a degree of “energy independence” the opposite of the expected downturn. Reviews that went after four decades on the oil boycott led by Saudi Arabic Arabic, that rocked the global power system in 1973, the United States might withdraw “umbrella security” exorbitant cost of Gulf oil. This change has occurred in the United States confidence in prospects for self-sufficiency in energy […]
Talkin’ trash: Are we literally throwing away energy? Philipp Schmidt-Pathmann wakes up every day thinking about trash. What got him thinking about it in the first place is how much of it is simply dumped into landfills across America when most of what is not recyclable could instead be turned into energy for homes and businesses everywhere. Schmidt-Pathmann has seen a better approach in his native Germany where only about 1 percent of all municipal waste goes into landfills. This compares with about 68 percent in the United States of the 400 million tons discarded annually, he explains. (Exact numbers are hard to come by, but he prefers figures collected by Biocycle Magazine .) Germans recycle almost 70 percent of their municipal waste and burn almost all the rest to turn it into energy. Schmidt-Pathmann is founder and executive director of the Zero Landfill Initiative based in Seattle. He […]
“The Stone Age didn’t end because humanity ran out of stones.” — Ronald Bailey We used to be afraid of something called Peak Oil. Peak Oil was the idea that oil production had reached its zenith, or would soon, and was poised to plunge; we inevitably faced a drought of the black gunk. In 2007, CNN reported: The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 — a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims. The physicist Niels Bohr said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Some time has passed and we can see how this particular prediction has panned out. In 2006 the world produced about 72 million barrels of oil a day. Last year (despite an ongoing financial slump) the world produced about 73 million barrels of oil a day. […]
UK officials have claimed Britain needs fracking for industry to ‘prosper’ and ‘the economy to grow’. Increasing data challenges these claims. Photograph: Brennan Linsley/AP I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that " peak oil idea has gone up in flames ." But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. […]
Good news sells, and doesn’t rock any boats, but policy makers and politicians comforted by rosy forecasts are unable to understand the risks and properly prepare the country for long-term energy sustainability…. A more prudent, conservative US oil forecast would look very different. It would consider that, although surprises are always possible, the most productive fossil fuel resources do tend to be discovered first and produced first. It would take note of the fact that production in fracked wells declines extremely quickly, requiring an accelerating drilling treadmill to maintain—let alone grow—production, with associated collateral environmental impacts. It would assume that most tight oil plays producible at current oil prices have already been discovered and put into production, and that major new resources—if they exist—are unlikely to be forthcoming unless there is a significant rise in oil prices. In short, the forecast would be based on actual data from existing […]
Commodities / Crude Oil When In Doubt, Worry About Oil One of the starkest oil worry pot pourri presentations – ruthlessly mingling fact, fiction and fantasy (but pretending its all fact) – can be had here http://energypolicy.columbia.edu… Steve Kopits is the Managing Director of a known and still-in-business oil and energy forecasting firm, Douglas-Westwood. Both Kopits and D-W would appear to be (still) employable, but for how much longer we can only guess. The Kopits presentation is showcased by the Dublin sustainable economy and development firm FEASTA, with an even more ghastly presentation by David Knight called ‘Peak Oil and Climate Change – Two Sides of the Same Coin?’ FEASTA says that, as it perceives things, Global Warming and Peak Oil are the two largest threats to the planet, human life and civilization. To be sure this inevitably includes oil prices. Where is any so-called “peak oil induced” takeoff […]
On World Environmental Day, United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon underscored that sustainable energy is the golden thread that links poverty eradication, equitable economic growth and a healthy environment. Speaking today (5 June)at the first annual Sustainable Energy for All forum, Ban pointed out three goals for 2030: “universal access to modern energy services. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. Twice as much renewable energy in the global energy mix. Our efforts so far show that these objectives are realistic. Our focus now must be to achieve them.” He said this can bring us closer to our goals of universal energy and a life of dignity and opportunity for all. Ban said “along with its campaign on energy and women’s and children’s health, the Decade can bring us closer to our goals of universal energy and a life of dignity and opportunity for all. Modern energy […]
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Geological constraints have the potential to substantially increase the future oil price.” Wow. Talk about the obvious. Northwest Resident on Fri, 6th Jun 2014 3:32 pm “…geological constraints have the potential to substantially increase the future oil price…” And economic constraints have the potential to substantially sink the future oil price via demand destruction because there is a point at which very few will be able to afford that increased future price. Salaries and government hand-outs don’t increase to keep pace with the rising price of oil. Just exactly the opposite. The higher the price of oil gets, the more businesses can’t afford to continue operations, the more people lose their jobs or don’t get raises, and the less tax revenue the government collects to redistribute to the poor and unemployed. shortonoil on Fri, 6th Jun 2014 4:02 pm “Our approach […]
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) reviews a map during a meeting with Alexei Miller, the CEO of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, at Putin’s residence outside Moscow on Oct. 29, 2012.Alexei Nikolsky / AFP / Getty Images We will look back at 2014 as the year Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed all his chips into the center of the table — risking everything to make Russia a world power again. Even his apologists now acknowledge that Putin wants to resurrect the Russian empire with most of the Soviet Union’s lost territories either incorporated into Russia, as with Crimea, or in its orbit, similar to eastern Ukraine and Belarus, as well as the Caucasian and Central Asian states. The range of Putin’s geostrategic tools is also on display: the Eurasian Union, military brawn and proxy militias in the near abroad, and Russia’s petroleum exports as the main source of income and […]
In a lecture to the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy in February of 2014 Steven Kopits, who is the Managing Director of the consultancy, Douglas Westwood explains how conventional “legacy” oil production peaked in 2005 and has not increased since. All the increase in oil production since that date has been from unconventional sources like the Alberta Tar sands, from shale oil or natural gas liquids that are a by-product of shale gas production. This is despite a massive increase in investment by the oil industry that has not yielded any increase in ‘conventional oil’ production but has merely served to slow what would otherwise have been a faster decline. More specifically the total spend on upstream oil and gas exploration and production from 2005 to 2013 was $4 trillion. Of that $3.5 trillion was spent on the ‘legacy’ oil and gas system. This is a sum […]
