Category: Peak Oil

Photo credit: bryanburke/flickr. Creative Commons 2.0 license .  Three things you shouldn’t miss this week Cost savings fear if greenhouse gas targets are scaled back  –  Watering down the UK’s efforts to tackle global warming would risk wiping out at least £100bn in cost savings even if shale gas production takes off.   New shale gas drilling areas to be revealed as communities promised £100,000 benefits for fracking  –  Large swathes of UK to be opened up for shale drilling, with communities where fracking takes place to receive £100,000, even if no gas is produced.   IEA projection of global all-liquids production to 2035.  The ‘New Policies’ scenario takes into account policy commitments and plans that have already been implemented, as well as those that have been announced. Source: IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook. Paris, France: International Energy Agency.   Weakening the UK’s Fourth Carbon Budget has no legal […]

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The United States is awash in shale oil. Iran, once OPEC’s second-largest producer, is slowly ramping up output. Oil consumption growth in the Western world has been somewhere between negative and flat since the 2008 financial crisis. The “peak oil” theory has pretty much vanished, along with The Oil Drum, the bible of peak oil believers. Rest in peace. TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline. Or turn in your grave, for the oil price charts tell a different story. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures are up 13 per cent over one year. Since 2009, they have climbed every year except 2012. In Europe, the Brent crude futures are flat over the year after rising three years on the trot. Brent, the de facto global benchmark, trades at about $108 (U.S.) a barrel; West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, is at $97. For the sake of […]

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During the past decade Post Carbon Institute’s influence has grown markedly, thanks in no small part to all our supporters and allies . And we’re proud of the impressive list of accomplishments we’ve racked up ( see this ) in that time. Where do we go from here? That depends on what’s needed and what’s possible. Our mission remains consistent, but our projects tend to shift as global events unfold (for example, my two most recent books, The End of Growth and Snake Oil were written in response to the global financial crisis and the recent North American fracking boom, respectively). We have a general understanding of what likely will drive change over the next decade: peak net energy, climate change, resource depletion, and financial bubbles. However, how these main drivers interact with established economic and political institutions, growing population, and Earth’s already-strained […]

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MEXICO CITY, Dec. 12 (UPI) — A move in the Mexican Senate to review the privatization of the nation’s oil sector could create unease among potential investors, an energy consultant said. The Mexican Senate approved a measure Tuesday to open the energy sector up to private investors, ending a monopoly for state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, known also as Pemex. A measure introduced in the lower house, however, calls for a national vote on the privatization measure in 2015. Jorge Chavez , a former Mexican government official now serving as an energy consultant in Mexico City, told the Wall Street Journal the new referendum adds a layer of uncertainty to Mexico’s energy future. "From here to 2015, are companies going to want to invest?" he was quoted as asking Wednesday. Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto outlined his privatization proposal in August to revive the oil and natural gas sector […]

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Page added on December 12, 2013 The term “peak oil” has been around for decades, referring to when domestic oil production in America would peak. The jury is still out on peak oil, though the latest term to go around is “peak car”, with some studies indicating that the American car market is over saturated, and shrinking. But on a global scale, we’re not even close to reaching peak car. From 2006 to 2011, miles driven by Americans fell in three-quarters of urbanized areas where recent data was available. That’s quite specific, and also includes four of the five toughest economic years since the Great Depression. This data definitely screams out “selection bias!” to me, as high unemployment and stagnant wages means less reasons and less money for, you know, driving. While the study claims the economy has little to no impact on driving, again, by focusing only on […]

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MOSCOW, Dec. 11 (UPI) — The International Monetary Fund said there were risks to the health of the Russian economy because of its heavy reliance on the oil industry. Antonio Spilimbergo, an economist with the IMF, said he was concerned about the health of the Russian economy following a week-long visit to the country, which ended Tuesday. In a statement following his visit, Spilimbergo said growth in the Russian economy had slowed down and vulnerabilities persist. Inflation remains in check, however, and the economy is moving at its full capacity despite a slowdown in the growth of the Russian gross domestic product. “These projections are subject to risks — prospective tightening of international financial conditions, Russia’s dependence on international oil prices, growth in unsecured credit, and the impact of uncertainty concerning the pace of structural reforms on business climate and investment,” he said in a statement. He said the […]

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Page added on December 11, 2013 It’s bad enough that most middle-class people still have to struggle to keep their jobs and homes in today’s Second Great Depression. But if you’re even a little bit awake, then you also have to worry about longer-term threats: climate change, Fukushima, peak oil and the impending collapse of industrial civilization. There’s plenty of reason for anyone to be depressed these days. Yet, somehow, some people still manage to keep calm and carry on. So, for the ordinary person who thinks that happiness is for dopes and who needs a little help finding their way to the bottom, therapist Cloe Madanes offers “14 Habits of Highly Miserable People.” Here, for those who are energy- and climate-aware, I offer my own adaptation of Madanes’s six top points to succeed at self-sabotage: Be afraid, be very afraid, of economic loss. If you know that fiat […]

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Page added on December 11, 2013 Were they crying “Wolf”? Concerns about “peak oil” have recurred repeatedly since the resource was first developed, but they reached an unprecedented height in 2007 just prior to the global economic recession. Since then public concern has diminished, partly as a result of shale oil production in the United States. Yet, despite these developments and globally rising reserves, oil prices have almost doubled since 2010 and have tripled in a decade. The ‘peak oil’ debate has not gone away – oil remains critically important, adequate substitutes have yet to be found and concerns about depletion persist. This volume presents the best scientific evidence on why a decline in oil supply may, or may not, be in sight. It considers the production and resources of conventional oil and the potential for developing alternative liquid fuels from tar sands, shales, biomass, coal and gas. It […]

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CARACAS (Reuters) – President Nicolas Maduro’s government won a majority of votes in Venezuela’s local elections on Sunday, disappointing the opposition and helping his quest to preserve the late Hugo Chavez’s socialist legacy. With votes in from three-quarters of the nation’s 337 mayoral races, the ruling party and allies had combined 49.2 percent support, compared with the opposition coalition and its partners’ 42.7 percent, the election board said. Since taking power in April, Maduro, a 51-year-old former bus driver, has faced a plethora of economic problems including slowing growth, the highest inflation in the Americas, and shortages of basic goods including milk and toilet paper. Yet an aggressive campaign launched last month to force businesses to slash prices proved popular with consumers, especially the poor, and helped Maduro’s candidates on Sunday. "The father of the revolution has gone, but he left the son who continued helping the poor," said […]

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CARACAS (Reuters) – President Nicolas Maduro’s government won a majority of votes in Venezuela’s local elections on Sunday, disappointing the opposition and helping his quest to preserve the late Hugo Chavez’s socialist legacy. With votes in from three-quarters of the nation’s 337 mayoral races, the ruling party and allies had combined 49.2 percent support, compared with the opposition coalition and its partners’ 42.7 percent, the election board said. Since taking power in April, Maduro, a 51-year-old former bus driver, has faced a plethora of economic problems including slowing growth, the highest inflation in the Americas, and shortages of basic goods including milk and toilet paper. Yet an aggressive campaign launched last month to force businesses to slash prices proved popular with consumers, especially the poor, and helped Maduro’s candidates on Sunday. "The father of the revolution has gone, but he left the son who continued helping the poor," said […]

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On December 9th, the day before the Nobel Prizes are handled out in Stockholm, there is a “Nobel Week Dialogue” in Gothenburg. This year’s theme is “Exploring the Future of Energy” and participating Nobel Laureates are presented by the organizers. My contribution to the dialogue is now published by Svenska Dagbladet on “Brännpunkt” under the heading “Now we need new energy systems” ( Read the article in Swedish on Brännpunkt ). An English translation of the debate article can be found below. Now the world needs new energy systems Kjell Aleklett, Professor University of Texas at Austin and Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems NASA has just released a new image showing lights on the Earth’s surface at night. If one zooms in on Texas in the image it is easy to identify the cities of Austin, San Antonio and Houston. South of San […]

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Many energy observers believe that the global Petroleum Engineering Industry had successfully managed deactivating the famous Peak Oil theory through developing new advanced technologies that resulted in significant additional reserves as a result of the exponential increase in the Research and Development (R&D) investment in the last decade as compared to the last century. The Peak Oil theory attracted media headlines at the beginning of this century through the book “Twilight in the Desert: Shock Saudi Oil and the Global Economy”  written by the famous banker Matthew Simon, who died few years ago. The exponential increase in the R&D investment by national, international and service oil companies generated several new advanced technologies that helped the oil industry discover more oil and gas fields and increase the recovery factor from existing and new discovered fields to reach a level that was never thought of in the past. Indeed, it was […]

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Many energy observers believe that the global Petroleum Engineering Industry had successfully managed deactivating the famous Peak Oil theory through developing new advanced technologies that resulted in significant additional reserves as a result of the exponential increase in the Research and Development (R&D) investment in the last decade as compared to the last century. The Peak Oil theory attracted media headlines at the beginning of this century through the book “Twilight in the Desert: Shock Saudi Oil and the Global Economy”  written by the famous banker Matthew Simon, who died few years ago. The exponential increase in the R&D investment by national, international and service oil companies generated several new advanced technologies that helped the oil industry discover more oil and gas fields and increase the recovery factor from existing and new discovered fields to reach a level that was never thought of in the past. Indeed, it was […]

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Page added on December 6, 2013 A consensus appears to have been reached that the world’s production of conventional oil peaked in recent years. And to many observers, it means that from this time forward the supply of oil and natural gas, along with peaking coal and uranium, will decrease toward zero, leaving global Industrial Culture without the precious energy that made that culture possible. With such a precipitous future awaiting the Industrial Tribe, it is curious that one does not hear much about declining energy supplies in the mainstream media. Instead, we are bombarded daily with the “Industrial Progressive Narrative” (Princen et al , 2013), a comforting meme that portrays society as having ever-more energy resources that will drive never-ending growth into the future: “This month Continental Resources told investors that the [Bakken Formation] contains enough recoverable oil to double the official count of U.S. reserves and enough […]

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Page added on December 6, 2013 Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. Global production of oil fell from a high point in 2005 at 74 mb/d, but has since rebounded setting new records in both 2011 and 2012. There is active debate as to when global peak oil will occur, how to measure peak oil, and whether peak oil production will be supply or demand driven. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to sometimes be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and similarly to the global rate of petroleum production. However, the discovery […]

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The term “Peak oil” warns of the end of cheap and plentiful energy. An expanding world population of 6.5 billion suggests a limit for growth will eventually be reached (if it hasn’t been already) and no combination of current alternative energy sources will sustain the world’s accelerating thirst for power. As oil production inevitably declines and resources become scarce, the world faces a turbulent descent. We depend on a globalized economy that is completely reliant on ready supplies of this non-renweable resource. But envisioning a life without the luxuries afforded by abundant oil can quickly lead one to denial. It’s much easier to absolve our responsibility to some higher authority – the government, the oil companies, technology, God. The exact tipping point in world oil production cannot be plotted exactly until a clear decline can be seen, by which time it will be too late. Experts analyzing this situation […]

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This is what I’ve been talking about here, over and over again. We are not paying attention to this, and yet it’s the most important concern we are facing in Hawaii today. The Big Island’s anti-GMO bill, Bill 113, is just moving chairs around on the deck of the Titanic. The issue is so much bigger: According to a press release from the University of Maryland: “Researchers from the University of Maryland and a leading university in Spain demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (“Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors.” The study looked at how vulnerable different aspects of the U.S. economy are to the effects of Peak Oil. In the United States, the research concludes, such sectors would include […]

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This is what I’ve been talking about here, over and over again. We are not paying attention to this, and yet it’s the most important concern we are facing in Hawaii today. The Big Island’s anti-GMO bill, Bill 113, is just moving chairs around on the deck of the Titanic. The issue is so much bigger: According to a press release from the University of Maryland: “Researchers from the University of Maryland and a leading university in Spain demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (“Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors.” The study looked at how vulnerable different aspects of the U.S. economy are to the effects of Peak Oil. In the United States, the research concludes, such sectors would include […]

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BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s leaders are expected to gather at a closed-door meeting next week to set policy and reform priorities for 2014, sources with government think tanks said, following a party meeting that laid out a bold reform agenda for the next decade. The annual Central Economic Work Conference will bring together top party leaders, ministers and provincial officials to discuss economic targets, including the rate of economic growth, inflation and money supply for the year ahead. Analysts and investors expect the government to spell out detailed reform plans for next year, after a plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee charted the course of sweeping economic and social changes. Top leaders are likely to held a meeting around the same time on urbanization to issue detailed plans on how to proceed with the much debated program without fanning a renewed local spending frenzy, according to the sources. […]

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Jeffery Brown is our Export Land expert and I would never try to match wits with him on world exports. And congratulations to Jeffery for having the Number one post on Resilience.Org. Top 10 Reader’s Favorites – Resilience and Energy Bulletin 1. Peak oil versus peak exports by Jeffrey J. Brown, Samuel Foucher PhD, originally published by ASPO-USA – Oct 2010 All I can do is post the data the EIA, or someone else supplies. And the EIA only has world export data through 2010. But I found even that pretty startling, especially the Non-OPEC data. Anyway here is the World Crude + Condensate exports, 1986 through 2010 in thousand barrels per day. Notice how the increase in World exports go up almost linear. Actually between 1986 and 2010 the increase averaged 3.41 percent per year for 18 years. But for the last seven years world exports have declined by […]

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Page added on December 4, 2013 There is no question that we are at a turning point in world energy. But then we are often at a turning point. Just as everybody gets comfortable with what they expect to happen, a big change comes along that undercuts existing assumptions. Just consider: • Less than three years ago, a ‘‘nuclear renaissance’’ seemed to be unfolding. Now, in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the renaissance has turned into a ‘‘nuclear patchwork’’  —  moving ahead in some countries, stalled or shut down in others. • Five years ago, the United States was suffering an advanced case of ‘‘peak oil’’ and was going to run out of petroleum. Since then, crude oil output has increased by 56 percent and its net oil imports are down 40 percent. • Four years ago, the cost of solar panels seemed stubbornly high. […]

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DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Opposition fighters have abducted 12 nuns from a predominantly Christian village near Damascus and taken them to a rebel-held town, the mother superior of a Syrian convent said Tuesday. The statement by Febronia Nabhan, Mother Superior at Saidnaya Convent, came as Syria’s state TV reported that a suicide attacker set off his explosive vest in an unspecified government institution in Damascus, killing four and wounding 17. The TV gave no further details about the blast in the central Jisr Abyad neighborhood. Such blasts in Damascus are not uncommon. Some have killed scores of people in the city. Nabhan said Tuesday that the nuns and three other women were taken the day before from another convent in the predominantly Christian village of Maaloula to the nearby town of Yabroud. Syrian rebels captured large parts of Maaloula, some 60 kilometers (40 miles) northeast of the capital, on […]

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By  Tom Athanasiou – Tom Athanasiou is the director of the Earth Island-sponsored project EcoEquity and a member of the Greenhouse Development Rights authors’ group. His interests focus on distributive justice within the global environmental emergency. Is our civilization doomed? I don’t think so, though I’ll admit that the case for doom is a pretty good one. But I wish to be clear on two points. First, it’s not too late to avoid disastrous climate change. We’re in trouble, no doubt about that, but we have the science, the technology, and the money to save ourselves. Second, we simply won’t do so if we give ourselves up to the habits of pessimism. Is “peak oil” a good way to talk about all this? The short answer is No , and this despite the fact that it draws attention to planetary limits, and to the great resource crunch that’s now […]

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Page added on December 2, 2013 [D]enial strategies suppress both facts and emotions, maladaptive coping strategies admit some of the facts and allow some of the emotions, both often in distorted form, and adaptive coping strategies accept the facts and allow the emotions to be felt, thus promoting more positive behaviours. The three groups of coping strategies may be considered to be sequential in the sense that moving from the first to the second and the second to the third requires that obstacles be overcome…. Some people who use denial strategies are likely to remain ‘stuck’ there regardless of the evidence. (links/references in the original quote) [1] Those comments were written as part of a study on climate change denial, but their application is easily and accurately extended to peak oil denial and any number of political issues where too many prefer avoiding contemplation of the consequences of ideological […]

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It’s traditional at this time of year to look back at what we have accomplished or how we have blundered, and to look forward at how we might fix things. So far, we should classify this decade of the 2010s as the Age of Denial . People, and Americans in particular, continue to avoid serious thought about human population growth, the predictable effects of global warming, the degradation of the oceans, and even the depletion of top soil in the Midwest. At this moment, our most critical economic and social problem is something called Peak Oil, and it’s not even getting play in the alternative media, much less on the network news.   About a decade ago, I wrote a series of columns on another internet site about the issue of Peak Oil. Basically, it is the observation that there is only so much easily obtainable oil, and the […]

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Team identifies key industries for policy action Researchers from the University of Maryland and a leading university in Spain demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (‘Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors. While critics of Peak Oil studies declare that the world has more than enough oil to maintain current national and global standards, these UMD-led researchers say Peak Oil is imminent, if not already here — and is a real threat to national and global economies. Their study is among the first to outline a way of assessing the vulnerabilities of specific economic sectors to this threat, and to identify focal points for action that could strengthen the U.S. economy and make it less vulnerable to disasters. Their work, “Economic […]

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The JODI data came out a few days ago. Below is JODI World Total C+C with EIA data used for countries not reporting to JODI. I use EIA data also for Venezuela and Iran because JODI uses data reported by these two countries which is political and inflated by about one million barrels per day by Iran and half a million barrels a day by Venezuela. The data is in kb/d with the last data point September 2013. Notice that JODI has a new world high in July just like the EIA had but down 976,000 barrels per day from July to to September. JODI has Non-OPEC at about 350,000 barrels below the peak in December 2012. I don’t put much stock in the JODI data but I do find it interesting look at occasionally. And since it is usually almost two months […]

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Aban Offshore Ltd. (ABAN) , Asia’s third-most- indebted oil rig provider, will be able to obtain cheaper U.S. and European financing following the easing of some sanctions on Iran, the Indian company’s biggest market. The company will be able to cut its cost of debt by as much as 2.5 percentage points as the easing of sanctions allows Aban to borrow from European and U.S. banks, a route previously closed, according three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The driller had debt equivalent to 129.9 billion rupees ($2.1 billion) as of Sept. 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, eight times as much its market value. The relaxation of some restrictions on Iran by the U.S. and five other world powers will let companies with operations in the Islamic Republic get loans and insure their assets. Aban, which earns about 40 percent of its revenue from rigs leased to Iranian […]

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Spanish energy company Repsol would get $5 billion in compensation from Argentina for the expropriation last year of the firm’s YPF unit and its vast holdings of unconventional oil and gas fields, a person with direct knowledge of the preliminary deal said Tuesday. Under terms of the proposal to be considered Wednesday by Repsol’s board, the Spanish company would get the money in Argentine bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. In return, it would drop legal action against Argentina for expropriating Repsol’s controlling stake in YPF in 2012 without payment, said the person, who was not authorized to disclose details and spoke on condition of anonymity. Investors on Tuesday cheered the news, sending Repsol shares up 4.28 percent to close at 19.24 euros ($26.03) in Madrid. News of the deal came late Monday after Repsol executives met in Buenos Aires with government officials from Argentina […]

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Record Asian oil demand is spurring the region’s refineries to charter the most supertankers in a year, driving shipping rates to the highest level since 2010. Traders hired enough carriers in the spot market from owners including Frontline Ltd. (FRO) and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. to load 35.9 million metric tons in the four weeks ended Nov. 24, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from broker reports. The shipments, the largest this year, expanded 53 percent since the end of August, during which time a glut of shipping capacity in the Persian Gulf shrank by about the same amount. Asian economies are growing about three times faster than the global average, spurring the International Energy Agency , an adviser to 28 nations, to predict the region’s oil demand will rise to a record this quarter. Earnings from the tankers jumped to $50,801 a day on Nov. 22, a 34-fold […]

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MANILA, Nov. 26 (UPI) — The Pacific region could experience economic losses of as much as 12.7 percent of annual gross domestic product by 2100 as a result of climate change, an Asian Development Bank report warns. The ADB report — “Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific” — focuses on 14 developing Pacific nations: the Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. The bank says most of the countries will see average annual temperatures rise by 3.24 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. “If the world were to stay on the current fossil-fuel intensive growth model — the business-as-usual scenario — total climate change cost in the Pacific is estimated to reach 12.7 percent of annual gross domestic product equivalent by 2100,” the ADB report, released Tuesday, states. Of the […]

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While the US continues to engage in a delusional energy “debate” about whether we will continue to burn coal and whether natural gas is a panacea, China is struggling to acquire and deploy of energy resources to support its economic growth targets. China has an environment versus growth problem .    Already China is the #1 importer of oil in the world. That‘s right.  China imports more oil than the United States.     The US can hold its energy consumption below GDP growth through increased energy efficiency (technological improvements) and because our economy is more “services based” than China’s.   China on the other hand has to continue to consume more energy, particularly oil. The emerging and growing middle class there wants to buy cars, as is typical when annual GDP per capital hits $10,000-20,000 per year.  With 4X the population of the […]

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LONDON — Oil prices dipped and stocks around the world rose on Monday after the news of an agreement to temporarily freeze Iran’s nuclear program, but few specialists expected any significant change to consumer energy prices, at least in the short term. Under the interim deal brokered between the United States and other world powers with Tehran, little has changed in market fundamentals. Analysts doubted that Iran would be able to increase exports much, if at all, in the six months covered by the deal, because the Washington-led coalition has not lifted its embargo against Iranian oil. Gregg Laskoski, an analyst at GasBuddy.com, a website that tells motorists where to find the least expensive gasoline in the United States and Canada, said the Iran deal “may bring some calm to markets,” but he expressed doubt that it would have a significant impact soon. Even before the announcement Sunday, American […]

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Chinese authorities detained seven people from China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (386) , the nation’s biggest refiner, after at least 55 died in a pipeline blast. The personnel from Sinopec, as the refiner is known, and two from an economic development zone in China’s eastern Qingdao city were detained by police, the city’s Huangdao district government said yesterday on its official microblog . The explosion and crude oil leak on Nov. 22, the deadliest since at least 2005, adds to a growing toll from industrial accidents that’s building pressure for better safety standards and management. It shines a spotlight on management of state-owned energy companies after the government pledged this month to allow more private investment as part of the biggest reforms since the 1990s. “Someone has to be accountable for what has happened,” said Laban Yu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Jefferies Group LLC. “Sinopec executives can only […]

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The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing. Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance. According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9mbd over the 75.2mbd produced in 2000. However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs). […]

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International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said Monday that he would be surprised if Iranian oil exports returned to pre-crisis levels soon, following the political accord Sunday on Iran’s nuclear program. “We may see currently some downwards pressure on the prices, but we’re still not there to comment on a structural impact on the markets, because the agreement is not yet clear about the future of Iranian oil production,” Mr. Birol told The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of an Oslo oil conference hosted by Statoil ASA (STO). Crude-oil futures were lower Monday on expectations that more oil supply could soon be available to the global oil market. Mr. Birol said he would be surprised to see Iranian oil exports reach pre-crisis levels anytime soon. “It was about 2.2 million barrels per day, and I would be surprised to see that it would […]

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International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said Monday that he would be surprised if Iranian oil exports returned to pre-crisis levels soon, following the political accord Sunday on Iran’s nuclear program. “We may see currently some downwards pressure on the prices, but we’re still not there to comment on a structural impact on the markets, because the agreement is not yet clear about the future of Iranian oil production,” Mr. Birol told The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of an Oslo oil conference hosted by Statoil ASA (STO). Crude-oil futures were lower Monday on expectations that more oil supply could soon be available to the global oil market. Mr. Birol said he would be surprised to see Iranian oil exports reach pre-crisis levels anytime soon. “It was about 2.2 million barrels per day, and I would be surprised to see that it would […]

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Tight oil is an important contributor to the U.S. energy supply, but its long-term sustainability is questionable. It should be not be viewed as a panacea for business as usual in future U.S. energy security planning.’ [1] Today, it takes about one barrel of conventional U.S. oil to produce the equivalent of nine barrels, or 378 gallons of gasoline. Meanwhile, the EROI for nonconventional oil, that is, oil produced from shale and tar sands, stands even lower, at about four. For every barrel of oil used to drill, producers obtain only four barrels of nonconventional oil, or 168 gallons of gasoline [2] FACTS SUCK Lost in the Happy Talk about our imminent energy independence are some notable facts intentionally omitted from those discussions. Facts, as we know, suck. And when the telling of a story of abundance collides with the reality of not […]

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Last week the International Energy Agency in Paris released its annual World Energy Outlook, which projects energy trends out to 2035. As it did last year, the 2013 WEO had plenty of good news for Americans: “The net North American requirement for crude imports all but disappears by 2035 and the region becomes a larger exporter of oil products.” Before we celebrate the end of the Middle East’s dominant role in global energy, however, a quick review of the IEA’s track record on its projections might be in order. Further, an analysis of a few key global oil production factors exposes the unstable foundation upon which hopes for North American oil independence are built. Following the two global oil crises of the 1970s, the IEA was upbeat about oil supply looking out a quarter century into the future. […]

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When Americans take to the road this Thanksgiving holiday they will be paying about 6% less for gasoline than they paid a year ago. That’s because the price of crude oil has fallen. Increased oil production due to fracking–the technology that breaks up shale rock buried deep inside the earth to release oil and natural gas reserves–has boosted U.S. oil output, and, in turn, reduced prices. Crude oil is trading near $93 a barrel, a five-month low, and gasoline prices are averaging $3.21 a gallon for regular unleaded, according to AAA. Natural gas is trading at $3.55 per million BTU, a few cents below the year-ago price. What happens next to oil prices will, as always, depend on supply and demand fundamentals…and politics. For crude oil, “the floor is established by the costs of these unconventional resources…at $60 or $70″ a barrel,” says […]

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Earth insight badge Person using petrol pump Petrol prices have continued to rise as oil prices hit new highs. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA A new multi-disciplinary study led by the University of Maryland calls for immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce vulnerability to the imminent threat of global peak oil , which could put the entire US economy and other major industrial economies at risk. The peer-reviewed study contradicts the recent claims within the oil industry that peak oil has been indefinitely offset by shale gas and other unconventional oil and gas resources. A report by the World Energy Council (WEC) last month, for instance, stated that peak oil was unlikely to be realised within the next forty years at least. This is due to global reserves being 25 per cent higher than in 1993. According to the WEC report, 80% of global energy is currently […]

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It was as if the International Energy Agency were appearing on the old American television game show To Tell the Truth last week as it offered a third contradictory forecast in the space of a year. You may recall that on To Tell the Truth the host would begin by reading a statement from a person with an unusual story or profession. Then, a celebrity panel would question three contestants who claimed to be that person. Afterwards, the panelists would vote on whom they believed was the real person. Finally, the host would say, “Will the real [name of person] please stand up?” (Some episodes are still available here on YouTube.) The difference is that the contestants on To Tell the Truth would try to tell similar, plausible stories so as to stump the panel. In the non-game-show world of energy forecasting, the IEA–a consortium of 28 countries, all […]

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IMGP0758               Peak oil demand is a provocative theory and would rely on some unanswered questions being met: namely on the  development of large-scale gas-fired trucks, rail and shipping vessels; the sustainability of the US shale boom; and policy action to support improved fuel-mileage and to phase out oil subsidies. [1]   DAMNED FACTS   A Citi Research report on so-called peak oil demand [ first post of this six-part series here ] has been drawing a lot of attention lately. Understandably: what could be bigger news for anyone concerned with climate change, energy security, etc.? The report comes out hot right from the start, suggesting ‘The End is Nigh’ and we are ‘Approaching a Tipping Point’ on global oil demand. Unfortunately, though, it’s less than persuasive. The first thing that ought to raise an eyebrow or two is how wildly Citi’s analysis […]

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So-called environmentalists never tire of predicting the end of oil. They’ve been talking about “peak oil” for decades, after which annual production would inevitably decline as we drain the world’s finite supply. In fact, proven reserves (oil that we know is there and is recoverable with current technology and under current law) have been steadily rising, despite the fact that the world pumps 83.9 million barrels a day out of the ground, a 32 percent increase over 20 years ago. New techniques, such as fracking and horizontal drilling, have brought new life to both old fields and new ones whose oil had previously been unrecoverable. And vast new fields, such as the giant finds off the coast of Brazil, have added new reserves. Much of that 32 percent increase in world production has gone to power the fast-rising economies of the developing world, such as China, India, and Brazil. Oil […]

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Oil drilling in the United States Energy experts have warned recently that Britain currently stores enough natural gas for only thirteen days of supply. Such a stark reality indicates how little reserve actually exists to fall back on. The news also brings to mind the concept of energy and fossil fuel shortage, depicted in movies such as ‘Mad Max’. But with our entire economy and way of life dependent on one particular fossil fuel, namely crude oil, how long can we expect this commodity to last, and for the present levels of production to be maintained? A study by a German think tank published in September, 2010 , warned of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in the next fifteen years as a result of a peak and irreversible decline in world oil supplies. The study stated that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur […]

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