Category: Peak Oil

The second half of the 1960s was a boom time for nightmarish visions of what lay ahead for humankind. In 1966, for example, a writer named Harry Harrison came out with a science fiction novel titled “Make Room! Make Room!” Sketching a dystopian world in which too many people scrambled for too few resources, the book became the basis for a 1973 film about a hellish future, “ Soylent Green .” In 1969, the pop duo Zager and Evans reached the top of the charts with a number called “ In the Year 2525 ,” which postulated that humans were on a clear path to doom. No one was more influential — or more terrifying, some would say — than Paul R. Ehrlich , a Stanford University biologist. His 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” sold in the millions with a jeremiad that humankind stood on the brink of apocalypse […]

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Three recent news items remind us that energy transitions take time, a lot of time–far too much time to be shrunk down into a television special, a few talking points, or the next big energy idea. For example, the complex management task of putting together the international fusion research project called the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) has resulted in estimated final costs that have tripled since the 2006 launch . Fusion could theoretically offer clean and abundant energy almost indefinitely because it uses ubiquitous hydrogen* as fuel and creates helium in the process. (Water you’ll recall is two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom and is therefore the most abundant source of hydrogen.) Despite nine years of effort, ITER has yet to carry out a single experiment; and, the project is not expected to do so for another four years. The idea for such an international project was […]

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Whenever oil prices abnormally elevate due to a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond human control and some the result of human intervention – the world often panics and the press is filled with articles highlighting that the world is running out of oil, ‘peak oil theory’, and oil prices are likely to increase to $250/bbl etc. The term peak oil was originally coined in the 1950s by M. King Hubbert who predicted US oil production would peak in 1970, and decline at the same rate it arose. But in the history of the petroleum era, Matt Simmons will be remembered for calling attention to peak oil. T. Boone Pickens, another peak oil proponent said in a statement, “You had to admire his advocacy and his ability to focus on the need to better prepare for a new energy future.” In reality, like many Malthusian beliefs, the […]

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Slowing productivity growth in the United States has been in the news in recent months. It has become a concern to policymakers because they believe it is one of the primary contributors to a middle-class economic squeeze  according to the annual report of the White House Council of Economic Advisors . Simply put, productivity growth refers to the growth in economic output per worker or more precisely, per hour of work. When this growth slows, the potential for real wage increases diminishes since the growth in wages typically reflects the ability of workers to create more output per unit of time. To the obstensibly naive observer the following idea may seem a plausible explanation: Higher-cost energy inputs into the production of goods and services reduce productivity growth because the economic output per dollar of energy consumed declines. And, though energy inputs aren’t the only thing to consider, they are […]

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If there was one thing most economists agreed on at the start of the year, it was this: Plunging oil prices would boost the U.S. economy. It hasn’t worked out that way. The economy is thought to have shrunk in the January-March quarter and may barely grow for the first half of 2015 — thanks in part to sharp cuts in energy drilling. And despite their savings at the gas pump, consumers have slowed rather than increased their spending. At $2.74 a gallon, the average price of gas nationwide is nearly $1 lower than it was a year ago. In January, the average briefly reached $2.03, the lowest in five years. Cheaper oil and gas had been expected to turbocharge spending and drive growth, more than making up for any economic damage caused by cutbacks in the U.S. oil patch. Consider what Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in […]

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The past year’s drop in crude oil prices will be fundamentally different from previous downturns. What started in June 2014 with a growing imbalance between soft demand in Asia and robust North American shale-oil production seemed typical: Brent crude prices started to fall from $105 per barrel, the market went in contango in October, and expectations were high in anticipation of the late-November OPEC meeting as oil was hitting $75 per barrel. The expectation was that things would revert quickly with a reduction of production quotas. The story went off script when OPEC announced it would not act, sending oil prices crashing below $50 per barrel. Subsequent announcements by influential members of the cartel confirmed that pricing for crude oil would be based on free-market economics. That marked a fundamental shift from over 100 years of price-setting from the Seven Sisters and OPEC, which had governed periods of stability […]

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We have for years been hearing about the potential for ‘peak oil’ and more recently about ‘peak metals’ but for the first time, several peer reviewed articles are warning us other peak resource constraints are threatening several key areas of product supply, including food. Peak oil has been discussed for a number of years, but its timing has been pushed out into the future by the emergence of high environmental impact mining techniques like shale oil, oil sands and fracking of natural gas (also used as an oil substitute) across the world. This change in timing is particularly notable in the US, where for the first time in many decades the nation is not dependent on imported supplies of fossil fuels. Coming at a time when OPEC is trying to retain some control of world markets, this has resulted in a massive price drop that is not truly related […]

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Air pollution image via shutterstock. Reproduced at Resilience.org with permission. On May 18 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report titled “ How Large are Global Energy Subsidies? ” The question is a bit misleading: most readers, when they see the word subsidy, probably tend tothink of tax breaks or cash gifts to specific industries. The report, however, uses the term mostly to refer to environmental externalities—and not ones tied to all energy use, but ones related to fossil fuel combustion in particular. An economic externality is an impact of a commercial activity that is not reflected in the prices of goods or services traded. There can be positive externalities: if I buy organic, responsibly farmed food, I usually expect to pay more—thus the beneficial impact of my food choice upon the environment isn’t reflected in a price that would reinforce my behavior; just the opposite is true. […]

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How the anti-green ‘Breakthrough Institute’ misrepresents science to advance a technocratic agenda and undermine grassroots environmentalism. “When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass — What can lobbyists do when science contradicts their political messages? Some simply deny the science, as many conservatives do with climate change. Others pretend to embrace the science, while ignoring or purging the disagreeable content. That’s what the Breakthrough Institute (BTI) is doing with one of the most widely discussed issues in 21st century science, the proposal to define a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. BTI has been described as “the leading big money, anti-green, pro-nuclear think tank in the United States, dedicated to propagandizing capitalist technological-investment ‘solutions’ to climate change.”[1] Founded in 2003 by lobbyist Michael Shellenberger and […]

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Air pollution image via shutterstock. Reproduced at Resilience.org with permission. On May 18 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report titled “ How Large are Global Energy Subsidies? ” The question is a bit misleading: most readers, when they see the word subsidy, probably tend tothink of tax breaks or cash gifts to specific industries. The report, however, uses the term mostly to refer to environmental externalities—and not ones tied to all energy use, but ones related to fossil fuel combustion in particular. An economic externality is an impact of a commercial activity that is not reflected in the prices of goods or services traded. There can be positive externalities: if I buy organic, responsibly farmed food, I usually expect to pay more—thus the beneficial impact of my food choice upon the environment isn’t reflected in a price that would reinforce my behavior; just the opposite is true. […]

Click here to view full article at www.resilience.org