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Peak Russia + Peak USA means Peak World

Since around 2005 many countries have increased their oil production but more have decreased. But the combined production of the United States and Russia have kept the world on a slight uptrend since that time. World since 2000 World oil production jumped in 2011, hardly moved at all in 2013 but it was up by more than  1.5 million barrels per day in 2014. And after such a huge gain everyone and their brother were singing “peak oil is dead’. But if you scroll down through the 37 major world oil producers it becomes obvious that a majority of nations have peaked and most of them are in steep decline. The above chart is EIA data however the next four charts below are JODI data with the last data point February 2015. The data on all charts is thousand barrels per day. Spuds per Rig Permits & Spuds Continue reading […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Peak Oil: One-Track Minds

One could argue that the most dangerous push in our energy/environment discussion is that which seeks to stop/limit oil production and/or divest from oil companies. That’s because our primary fuel has nowhere near a significant substitute. As such, publicly-traded oil companies are the lone bastion between us and a complete reliance on OPEC. [1] Well … sure, I guess one could argue that … “Big Oil: Leaping Tall Buildings … for Truth, Justice, and the American Way….” One could also argue this: given that oil is a finite resource becoming increasingly more challenging and expensive to locate and produce—among other inconvenient truths—perhaps we might urge industry and elected leaders to … you know … think about the future in terms other than “let’s maximize oil revenues and our bank accounts today.” Pursuing the one-track approach to our energy supply today and tomorrow has its advantages, at least for some. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Kjell Aleklett Update: Peak Oil 2015-2016

What happened to peak oil? Here an older 2012 video from Swedish peak oil luminary and ASPO chairman Kjell Aleklett . At the time, when we started this blog, we were entirely in the Richard Heinberg mode of thinking, summarized as: ‘ industrial society is going to be hit very soon by a truck, that few see coming and industrial society is doomed, because the world is running out of oil quickly. ‘ We no longer think that is the case. That doesn’t mean that peak oil is not going to happen, but it is at least a little postponed and there is fossil fuel life after peak oil. On the fossil fuel supply front, we are much more optimistic than we were three years ago. Meanwhile we think that it is very well possible to have a sustainable light-weight industrial society for 100% based on renewable energy, to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Of Giants, Super-Giants, And Mega-Giants

Summary The developments in energy in the USA over the last ten years are a miracle. The USA is now and will remain the dominant world energy producer for decades to come. All Americans should know and be proud of the superlative facts of the US energy revolution. Of Giants, Super Giants and Mega Giants It sounds like the title should be a lead in for a piece about the Avengers or some other comic book heroes. The only hero in this article is the United States Energy Industry. The revolutionary, innovation inspired growth of the last ten years is nothing short of a miracle. This narrative is not popular with the current White House or Democratic Party. You won’t hear them or the media talk much about it. It is not part of their playbook. Along with the intelligentsia in this country, the media, the White House and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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The Last Two Oil Crashes Show Peak Oil Is Real

Summary Recent oil crashes show you the hard floor for gauging value oil company equities. Properly understood, the crashes lend an insight into the concept of Peak Oil. All oil equity investors should understand the overarching upward trend on display here. PLEASE NOTE: ALL prices used in this article are using current 2015 dollars, inflation adjusted using the US BLS inflation calculator Generally, when I invest, I try to keep my thesis very simple. Find good companies, with good balance sheets and some kind of specific catalytic event on the horizon. But when one starts to concentrate their holdings in a sector, as I have recently in energy (see my recent articles on RMP Energy (OTCPK: OEXFF ) and DeeThree Energy (OTCQX: DTHRF ) , you need to also get a good handle on the particular tail or headwinds that are affecting it. Sometimes a sector like oil (NYSEARCA: […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Peak Oil: Still The Problem And Not The Answer

General Ideas While all the buzz surrounds oil prices, the global demand side remains on solid footing: up. Supplying 33% of all energy, oil is the world’s primary fuel. Oil is so important that global demand is ever-growing: 67 million b/d in 1990, 77 million b/d in 2000, and 91 million b/d in 2014. I’ll never understand the animosity of some Westerners toward critical fuels that they depend on everyday, making their lives easier in ways their great grandparents only dreamed of. [1] “Animosity” directed to fossil fuels? Has a nice right-wing playbook buzz to it, but those of us concerned with facts have an annoying habit of insisting that all of them be considered, and that consequences must also find a place at the table where overly-broad statements otherwise prefer being alone. And how exactly does one direct animus toward an energy source which has indeed made it […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Overview of Our Energy Modeling Problem

We live in a world with limits, yet our economy needs growth. How can we expect this scenario to play out? My view is that this problem will play out as a fairly near-term financial problem, with low oil prices leading to a fall in oil production. But not everyone comes to this conclusion. What were the views of early researchers? How do my views differ? In my post today, I plan to discuss the first lecture I gave to a group of college students in Beijing. A PDF of it can be found here:  1. Overview of Energy Modeling Problem . A MP4 video is available as well on my  Presentations/Podcasts Page . Many Limits in a Finite World We live in a world with limits. These limits are not just energy limits; they come in many different forms: All these limits work together. We can work around […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Yergin: Why the oil-price collapse changes everything

General Ideas It was not long ago that $100 per barrel oil was accepted as the new normal. China’s strong economic growth (and energy demand) would continue apace, and OPEC and Saudi Arabia would continue to play the traditional role as swing producer in support of oil prices. Events have proved otherwise. Oil markets have entered a new period. Now it is supply, not demand, which is the key the factor, making not-so-distant discussions of “peak oil” seem very far gone. China’s economy, while still growing, has slowed. And by leaving oil prices to the market, OPEC has effectively ceded the role of de facto swing producer to a country that hardly expected it—the United States. Markets never cease in their ability to upend current expectations and confound established thinking. That is certainly the case for the world of energy in a year that has seen the rapid creation […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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What Happens To US Shale When The Easy Money Runs Out?

Today we will take a look at both Whiting Petroleum (WLL) and Continental Resources (CLR) as far as their Bakken economics. Overall the numbers will show that, despite claims of low cash costs per MBOE ($16 or so for CLR) and high IRRs on $60 WTI, the facts say otherwise. In addition, the analysis will show how very high depletion rates combined with falling rig counts spells trouble for Bakken production growth despite better efficiencies per well. The analysis will be based on April presentations of both companies from which the graphs below are taken. I should note these economics are not much different from Eagle Ford, the second most prolific addition to US production growth in past years. Firstly one must understand that the easy money via QE from the Fed and zero interest rates allowed many shale players to burn free cash flow while showing operationally net […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Heinberg: Afterburn

Heinberg: Afterburn thumbnail We live in a time of what might be called The Great Burning. However, we tend to ignore the tremendous inferno blazing around us. Most of the combustion occurs out of sight and out of mind, in hundreds of millions of automobile, truck, aircraft, and ship engines; in tens of thousands of coal or gas-fired power plants that provide the electricity that runs our computers, smart phones, refrigerators, air conditioners, and televisions; in furnaces that warm us in the winter; in factories that spew out products we are constantly urged to buy. Add all this burning together and it amounts to the energy equivalent of torching a quarter of the Amazon rainforest every year. In the United States, the energy from annual fossil fuel combustion roughly equates to the solar energy taken up by all biomass in the nation. It’s a conflagration unlike anything that has […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple