Category: Peak Oil

For decades there have been predictions of peak oil and the disastrous consequences it will have on society. As the theory goes, eventually the world’s oil reservoirs will run out of oil, driving us to more expensive reservoirs and higher oil prices until there’s not enough cheap oil to serve the world’s energy needs. Essentially, there will be a peak in cheap oil supply. Those who fear peak oil also often think there will be a cascade of economic disasters as a result of this peak in cheap oil supply. Today, there is emerging evidence that a peak is on the horizon — but it’s not a peak in supply, it’s a peak in demand. Energy efficiency is improving, alternatives are becoming viable, and oil just isn’t as attractive as it once was to consumers. The result could be a peak oil scenario that works in exactly the opposite […]

Click here to view full article at www.nasdaq.com

With Brent falling below $90 / barrel, panic seems to be gripping the oil community, from the majors to the frackers.  It’s time for a bit of perspective.  Start with supply.  Libya has added 550 kpbd of supply in just the last three months.  That’s a 2 mbpd / year pace, plenty to tank prices without other considerations.  That country could still boost production by a similar amount over the next year in the better case (and there are worse cases, too), but once it puts capacity back on line, Libyan production will no longer depress oil prices. On the unconventional  side, US shales and Canadian oil sands continue to power overall supply growth.  But keep in mind that the US independents were free cash flow negative at $105 WTI, and they’re going to be even more negative at $84 / barrel.  If they can’t fill the funding gap, they’re going […]

Click here to view full article at www.prienga.com

By Chris Hamilton Production of crude oil has nearly stalled despite a near quadrupling in the price since ’01 and it seems likely the world has entered the Peak Oil phase and neither the governments nor central banks (try as they may) can paper this over. Without the growing supply of adequate cheap energy, there isn’t adequate GDP growth, and without the GDP growth, there is no way to outgrow, pay off, or service the huge debts incurred but by interest rate suppression. The dual occurrence of peak oil with ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is a truly unfortunate state of affairs. But whether or not they happened in tandem, both were inevitable. Still, governments and central banks are attempting to maintain the pre-peak oil system and avoid the pain of free market corrections to supply, production, and price. It is in this light that the centralization and "intervention" […]

Click here to view full article at seekingalpha.com

4582 Votes In the last few days (written 14 October 2014) the headlines have focused on the increase in oil production from OPEC producers, now at its highest level since the summer of 2013 – In its monthly oil market report, OPEC said its oil production rose by 402,000 barrels a day in September 2014 to total 30.47 million barrels a day. Higher levels of supply from Iraq and Libya were the main drivers of the production increases. Oil production is also rising due in part to the shale oil boom in North America. Whereas demand has weakened as growth falls in the global economy, this saw a 20% fall in the spot price for Brent crude over 3½ months. From the oil industry’s point of view this all sounds very positive, growing production, a product where supply exceeds current demand. But we need to step back and look at the longer-term picture. Richard […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

Printer-friendly I’ve been advancing a thesis for several months with friends that World War III is now underway. It’s just that it’s not the war we thought it would be, that is, a confrontation between major powers with the possibility of a nuclear exchange. Instead, we are getting a set of low-intensity, on-again, off-again conflicts involving non-state actors (ISIS, Ukrainian rebels, Libyan insurgents) with confusing and in some cases nonexistent battle lines and rapidly shifting alliances such as the shift from fighting the Syrian regime to helping it indirectly by fighting ISIS, the regime’s new foe. There is at least one prominent person who seems to agree with me, the Pope. During a visit to a World War I memorial in Italy last month Pope Francis said: "Even today, after the second failure of another world war, perhaps one can speak of a third war, one fought piecemeal, with […]

Click here to view full article at www.resilience.org

WASHINGTON — As global leaders sounded the alarm about a slowing world economy, a more immediate concern drew the attention of policy makers at the International Monetary Fund ’s semiannual meetings last week: inflated asset prices and increasing levels of debt overseas. Bond markets in the eurozone are booming, debt in China is at historic highs and the United States stock market, even with its sharp fall last week, has been on a tear. As economists and politicians heap pressure on global central banks to continue, and even escalate, their unusually loose monetary policies in order to spur global demand, the fear that these measures could provoke another market convulsion is spreading. “A major lesson of the last crisis is that accommodative monetary policy contributed to financial excesses,” said Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank . “We are pursuing a similar policy for good […]

Click here to view full article at www.nytimes.com

4576 Votes One of the more disruptive consequences of peak oil is likely to be peak air travel . What does peak air travel mean? Why is it likely? Why haven’t you already heard more about it? And what business and investment opportunities does this coming disruption create? I’ve been writing about the unsustainability of air travel for more than 20 years, and I’m pleased that this year it’s on the SXSW Eco conference agenda . But let me make one thing perfectly clear from the start: I am not here to tell you that you shouldn’t fly. Some people do make that argument , and it’s a legitimate question , but that’s not what I’m saying. I came to Austin by plane, and I think very few people who can afford to fly will choose to fly significantly less for reasons of ethics or sustainability. People like me […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

As I previously predicted Uganda has now found a substantial reservoir of natural gas and the government will be looking at a development plan to fully utilise such a find.  Therefore It now seems a good time to return to the controversial issue of fracking. In the UK, the North Sea natural gas reserves are on a major decline and supplies are quickly running out, therefore the British government has submitted to the demands of the oil industry to start fracking on UK soil. So what is fracking and why is it causing so much discontent? The Earth is made up of a number of layers, after you drill past the water table you will eventually come to a type of rock called shale, which is sedimentary and fine grained in nature comprising of a mixture of clay flakes and other minerals such as calcite and quartz. Usually a […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

Where is George Orwell when you need him? It is a supreme irony that cornucopian oil industry mouthpiece and consultant Daniel Yergin should receive America’s first medal for energy security named after James Schlesinger, the first U.S. energy secretary. For those not familiar with the late Dr. Schlesinger’s views, in a keynote speech he told attendees at a 2007 conference sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) the following: Conceptually, the battle is over. The peakists have won. I was sitting next to an oil executive in New Mexico just recently, and he said to the audience, "Of course, I’m a peakist. We’re all peakists. I just don’t know when the peak comes." But that represents part of a conceptual victory. And, therefore to the peakists I say, you can declare victory. You are no longer the beleaguered, small minority of voices crying in the […]

Click here to view full article at www.resilience.org

On Monday, September 29, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a story called “ Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True .” The story is written as if there are only two possible outcomes: The Peak Oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or Diminishing Returns can and are being put off by technological progress–the view of the WSJ. It seems to me, though, that a third outcome is not only possible, but is what is actually happening. 3. Diminishing returns from oil limits are already beginning to hit, but the impacts and the expected shape of the down slope are quite different from those forecast by most Peak Oilers. Area of Confusion In many people’s way of thinking, the economy is separate from resources and the extraction of those resources. If we believe economists, the economy can grow indefinitely, with or without the use […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com