Graham Palmer, an industrial engineer from Melbourne, discusses energy use and needs. He predicts that the declining energy surplus of fossil fuels will be one of the defining features of energy systems in the twenty first century. ABC Name (required) Email Address (required) Website
There has been considerable discussion lately as to whether or not total collapse of the world’t economies will happen in the relatively near future. I think that is the wrong question. Let me explain. Ecological collapse of the world’s ecosystem is a lead pipe cinch. It is already well underway and instead of slowing down, it is gaining momentum fast. Here are just a few examples from recent news. ‘Peak soil’ threatens future global food security “Under business as usual, the current soils that are in agricultural production will yield about 30 percent less than they would do otherwise by around 2050.” Surging food consumption has led to more intensive production, overgrazing and deforestation, all of which can strip soil of vital nutrients and beneficial micro-organisms, reduce its ability to hold water and make it more vulnerable to erosion. Such factors, exacerbated by climate change, can ultimately lead to […]
As U.S. and EU policymakers have imposed targeted sanctions on Russian individuals and firms in response to the crisis in Ukraine, Western companies have sought to insulate their own projects from the political imbroglio and continue developing the country’s vast oil and gas resources. Exxon Mobil and Shell have joint ventures with Rosneft and Gazprom respectively to explore and produce shale oil and gas from beneath the swampy plains of Western Siberia and both want to be allowed to continue operating there. It’s easy to see why. The West Siberian basin is the largest petroleum basin in the world, covering 2.2 million square kilometres between the Ural Mountains and Yenisei River, extending from Kazakhstan in the south to under parts of the Kara Sea in the north. The region contains dozens of super-giant and giant oilfields, including Samotlor with 28 billion barrels of oil originally in place, and Urengoy […]
How Can We Feed Billions More People? One out of every eight people in the world goes hungry. The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, which calculated this figure , has also reported that 852 million of these 870 million hungry people live in developing countries. Worse, the world population will likely balloon from its present 7.1 billion to 9.6 billion by 2050 . Scientists say this will be coupled with a projected doubling in demand for crops by that same year. Researchers at the University of Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment now argue in a Science paper, however, that it is possible to feed at least 3 billion more people—with existing cropland. These researchers claim that a “small set of regions, crops, and actions” could “provide strategic global opportunities to increase yields, reduce the environmental impact of agriculture, and deliver food more efficiently from what is already grown.” […]
Love it or hate it, British multinational oil and gas company BP ( NYSE:BP ) is one the world’s top institutional experts on energy. Besides being a business leader in its industry — the sixth largest integrated oil company (IOC) by market cap in 2013 — the supermajor is at the forefront of the semi-commercial, semi-academic conversation about the future of energy use at large. Since 1952, BP has offered a share of its two cents in the form of an annual statistical review , the aim of which is to share data and insight about current energy markets and where the world could be heading. The report proper is somewhat dense and is generally only partially digested, if at all, by the media, but the 2013 review contained a few salient points that were thrust into the spotlight. First, and most broadly, was this insight: Demand growth for […]
Researchers from the ICTA-UAB and the University of Maryland (UMD) demonstrate in a new study which sectors could put the entire U.S. economy at risk when global oil production peaks (‘Peak Oil”). This multi-disciplinary team recommends immediate action by government, private and commercial sectors to reduce the vulnerability of these sectors. References Christian Kerschner, Christina Prell, Kuishuang Feng, Klaus Hubacek (2013). Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil , Global Environmental Change. While critics of Peak Oil studies declare that the world has more than enough oil to maintain current national and global standards, these researchers from ICTA-UAB and UMD say Peak Oil is imminent, if not already here—and is a real threat to national and global economies. Their study is among the first to outline a way of assessing the vulnerabilities of specific economic sectors to this threat, and to identify focal points for action that could strengthen the U.S. […]
They should be magicians. Successful magic depends on the artist being able to distract the viewers from the sleight-of-hand performed. Keep them preoccupied with one topic or one item and it’s then much simpler to create the illusion of magic. Peak oil deniers are a lot like that. Toss out some carefully massaged facts bearing the imprint of near-truths but without context (just to be safe), engage in a pattern of irrelevancies to help muddy the waters, toss in some meaningless numbers while carefully shielding the important ones from the discussion, and presto! No more peak oil theories. But as with magic, the show must end. We walk back out into the light and back into reality, where some of us still believe that facts matter. Perhaps not today while the Happy Talk keeps everyone entertained, but soon enough that show will end as well, and then the realities—good […]
The story of America’s new energy abundance has been accepted uncritically by too many people. A closer look at the realities of today and the last decade, coupled with a better understanding of our energy and oil systems, reveals risks that must be discussed and included in planning for the years ahead. This brief paper presents key information on the role of oil in the economy, the fact that world oil production has not increased meaningfully since 2005, the failure of high prices to create new supplies, the nature and limits of the oil being produced through fracking, the global challenges to oil supplies, and the likelihood that the United States will never be a net oil exporter again or truly “energy independent.” People who are part of the energy or economic debate – whether as policy makers, […]
A couple of posts or so ago I mentioned that there are three major problems sitting relatively un-noticed as we head into the mess of Peak Oil. Of these, perhaps the one that gets the least attention is the steady decline in production from existing wells. We are just about at the point where the Alaskan Pipeline will tip over into feeding less than half-a-million barrels a day down from the North Slope. (It sent 501 kbd down the pipe in June with a 98.6% reliability factor). At the same time those in control of the oilfields in the Russia are reporting that Russian exports have fallen to the lowest level in 6 years . This brings back the relatively unrecognized reality of the Export Land Model which Jeffrey Brown first introduced on The Oil Drum back in 2007. It is […]
General Ideas This week no energy relevant developments came out of Iraq. The Islamic State seems to be still consolidating its territories, facing scant opposition from the Baghdad government. But the spectacular advances seem to be done with, at least for now. Few western media outlets are able to properly report the situation, with gory news now focusing on Israel and Gaza. The news meat-grinder has recently been profuse in news regarding the breakaway of the BRICS from the IMF and other OECD controlled institutions. This was a setting trend but that has been accelerated by the backlash of the US spying programme and, more importantly, by the intervention of NATO in Ukraine. In the midst of all this comes almost unnoticed what is probably the most important energy news of 2014: Petroleum extraction in Russia has definitely peaked. Russian authorities are openly bracing for the ensuing decline in […]
