Category: Peak Oil

When they got you over barrel — what are you gonna do? You pull up, and you pay their latest price … petro, you gotta have it. The turmoil in Iraq pushed up U.S. and world oil prices about 4% this week . The U.S. benchmark crude oil, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $106.91 a barrel, up 38 cents on Friday. Brent, the international benchmark, rose 31 cents to $113.41.The IEA [International Energy Agency] has forecast that Iraq, which has the world’s fifth-largest proven oil reserves, would account for 60% of production growth from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for the rest of this decade. Iraq , now producing about 3.3 million barrels a day, has become OPEC’s second-largest producer , after Saudi Arabia. Even if the fighting stays in Iraq’s north, the IEA sees an […]

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Harvard economist Morris Adelman , famous for saying that we will never run out of oil, died last month. What followed the announcement of his death was a predictable set of encomiums like this one from defenders of the oil industry extolling Adelman’s infinite wisdom. Some (including my father, it seems) were so caught up in the odd celebratory mood–one that resurfaces every time people contemplate just how much stuff there is in the universe–that Adelman’s rather narrow and almost meaningless dictum was being offered as the basis for a complete energy policy. (And, never mind that that energy policy makes absolutely no mention of climate change.) All of this makes sense only if you keep yourself from […]

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The latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources proves that the oil and gas majors are in deep trouble. Over the last decade, rising oil prices have been driven primarily by rising production costs. After the release of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook last November, Deutsche Bank’s former head of energy research Mark Lewis noted that massive levels of investment have corresponded to an ever declining rate of oil supply increase: "Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance." Since 2000, the oil industry’s investments have risen by 180% – […]

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Coal power via eutrophication&hypoxia/flickr. Creative Commons. Three things you shouldn’t miss this week Chart: Mapping the US carbon cap. Necessary emission reductions for existing power plants broken down by state: Source: Source: SNL Article : Solar to match coal in China by 2016, threatening fossil dominance – Wuxi Suntech Power expects the cost of electricity from solar modules match to coal-powered stations in China as soon as 2016. Commentary: The Global Energy Market’s Moment of Truth – this is not a temporary market blip but a fundamental shift. Is the writing finally on the wall for fossil fuels? In the last fortnight we’ve seen new rules on coal emissions in the US, the prospect of a cap on coal consumption in China, and a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighting the risks to fossil fuel investment. Though the focus of the IEA report was energy investment, what came […]

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Sixty years ago, a man stood in front of a crowd that had gathered at a small hotel in San Antonio. Minutes before approaching the podium, however, he was quietly ushered off the stage to take an urgent phone call. On the other end of the line was a PR rep for one of the largest oil companies in the world, begging him not to give his speech. Luckily, Dr. Marion King Hubbert wasn’t persuaded. He went on to deliver what was arguably the most important oil prediction since Edwin Drake first drilled a hole into the Pennsylvanian soil in search of salt brine. Essentially, Dr. Hubbert believed there would be a point in time when oil production in the U.S. would peak and begin to decline. Even though his work became the basis for the peak oil theory, far too many people haven’t realized that this isn’t a […]

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Recently, the IEA published  a “Special Report” called World Energy Investment Outlook . Lets’s start with things I agree with: 1. World needs $48 trillion in investment to meet its energy needs to 2035.  This is certainly true, if we assume, as the IEA assumes , that world economic growth will actually improve a bit, from 3.3% per year in the 1990 to 2011 period to 3.6% per year in the 2011 to 2035 period. It is likely that the growth in investment needs will be even higher than the IEA indicates. In my view, this is a CYA report . The IEA sees trouble ahead. There is no way that investment of the needed amount (which is likely far more than $48 trillion) can be met. With the publication of this report, the IEA can say, “We told you so. You didn’t invest enough. That is why energy supply […]

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Sixty years ago, a man stood in front of a crowd that had gathered at a small hotel in San Antonio. Minutes before approaching the podium, however, he was quietly ushered off the stage to take an urgent phone call. On the other end of the line was a PR rep for one of the largest oil companies in the world, begging him not to give his speech. Luckily, Dr. Marion King Hubbert wasn’t persuaded. He went on to deliver what was arguably the most important oil prediction since Edwin Drake first drilled a hole into the Pennsylvanian soil in search of salt brine. Essentially, Dr. Hubbert believed there would be a point in time when oil production in the U.S. would peak and begin to decline. Even though his work became the basis for the peak oil theory, far too many people haven’t realized that this isn’t a […]

Click here to view full article at peakoil.com

US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that “ peak oil idea has gone up in flames .” But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. The agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook released this week says that US tight […]

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Several weeks ago, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) made big news by severely reducing its estimate of recoverable oil from California’s huge Monterey Shale formation.  This change in calculation by some guys sitting at desks in Washington DC led to a very predictable series of misleading stories with sensationalized headlines like this one from the Los Angeles times, this one from Reuters, and this one from the UK Guardian. The change in calculation also temporarily emboldened the Usual Suspects in the cultish Peak Oil movement, resulting in an array of celebratory Tweets and blog postings at a variety of sites around the web. So why bring this up now?  Well, as I was tooling around the web early this morning, I noted the passing of the famous energy economist Morris Adelman.  Dr. Adelman actually died peacefully at his home in Newton, Mass. on May 8, but the New […]

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