Category: Peak Oil

Why is the price of oil so low now? In fact, why are all commodity prices so low? I see the problem as being an affordability issue that has been hidden by a growing debt bubble. As this debt bubble has expanded, it has kept the sales prices of commodities up with the cost of extraction (Figure 1), even though wages have not been rising as fast as commodity prices since about the year 2000. Now many countries are cutting back on the rate of debt growth because debt/GDP ratios are becoming unreasonably high, and because the productivity of additional debt is falling. If wages are stagnating, and debt is not growing very rapidly, the price of commodities tends to fall back to what is affordable by consumers. This is the problem we are experiencing now (Figure 1). Figure 1. Author’s illustration of problem we are now encountering. I […]

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As an investor in start-up companies, I am always working to test my assumptions and update my understanding of where the energy sector is now, and the direction it is moving in towards the future. Some key questions for this dynamic year: Is the current oil crisis the marking of a step change towards a cleaner energy industry or merely history repeating itself? While today’s oil price at $45-50 per barrel is probably too low to be considered the new normal, what should we expect moving forward? One thing is for sure: change is coming. Although demand for oil and gas will continue for decades to come, it will gradually diminish as renewable energy sources rise. A lot could happen between then and now. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and many other credible parties continue to forecast that our growing world population from 7 billion people today to 9 […]

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All views expressed here are those of Verwimp Bruno and do not necessarily represent those of Ron Patterson. 1. INTRODUCTION Peak Oil is the moment in time when, on a global scale, the maximum rate of oil production is reached. The moment after which oil production, by nature, must decline forever. Since Earth is a closed system, next to this production (supply) event, there must be an equal demand event: Peak Oil Consumption. Since there are no substantial above ground deposits, Peak Oil Production and Peak Oil Consumption must coincide. The world consists of a lot of different countries, some of which are already far beyond peak oil production That leads to the assumption the world as a whole reaches peak oil production. On the demand side, it is worth looking, because different countries have different economies, different degrees of development, and so on, if, while some countries still […]

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Have we peaked? Interesting info graphic put together by Chiltern Thrust Bore LTD. 2 Comments on "Peak Oil Info-Graphic" GregT on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 2:57 am “Peak oil is a concept that was originally devised by M King Hubbert in the 1950s. The basic concept is that once oil production reaches it’s maximum output, a sharp decline will follow causing huge economic problems.” No need to worry folks, no huge economic problems in the foreseeable future. Everything is A OK. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming, and don’t forget that consumption is the key to prosperity.

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The idea that we will use up all of the earth’s oil has just gone from extreme to ludicrous. According to a new report by BP plc (BP) , the oil game has significantly changed over the last few years. What you thought you knew about how the oil industry works is wrong. But that doesn’t mean we are in any worse shape than before. However, if you are even thinking about getting into today’s incredibly low-priced oil company’s stocks, you need to pay attention. BP’s report, titled "New Economics of Oil," lays out why conventional thinking about oil production and prices is all wrong. For starters, the "Beverly Hillbillies" idea of get-rich-quick oil finds is over. Oil is not something that is found in huge quantities that can be traditionally drilled for decades anymore. Geologists have gotten darn good at finding the big fields, leaving new ones in […]

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In late summer 2015, commercial oil reserves of Saudi Arabia reached 326.6 million barrels, thus setting a new record for the world’s largest oil supplier since 2002. Thus, the level of oil reserves in July amounted to 320.2 million barrels, while oil exports fell from 7.28 million barrels per day in July to 7 million barrels a day in August, Bloomberg says. According to expert Mohamed Ramadi, a decline in oil exports from Saudi Arabia reflects the realities of present-day market. Oil production in Saudi Arabia declined from 10.36 million barrels per day in July to 10.27 million barrels a day in August , Pravda.Ru reports with reference to RIA Novosti. In September, Saudi Arabia reported the production of 10.23 million barrels a day. In June, the country reached its peak in oil production since 1980 with 10.56 million barrels a day. pravda.ru

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The fall in oil prices heralds a momentous shift in world energy markets from the BRIC era of emerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to the Shale Era. An oil tanker sits anchored off the Fos-Lavera oil hub near Marseille, France, Oct. 15. © Reuters Yet there are two continuing puzzles about the price collapse. First, the 50% fall in prices has not been the global economic stimulus that might have been expected. So far, at least, it has not been a Fourth Arrow for the world economy. Is this telling us something about deeper troubles ahead for the world economy? The second puzzle concerns geopolitics. The oil market is usually very sensitive to geopolitics. Geopolitical risk is high now: The Middle East is in crisis. The West’s relations with Russia are the worst they have been since the end of the Cold War; the stand-off in Syria […]

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Source: Hess Corp. It was roughly one year ago when reports surfaced that Occidental Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:OXY ) was seeking a buyer for its Bakken Shale assets. At that time, Wall Street pegged the value of those assets at as much as $3 billion. However, one year later, those same assets are reportedly being unloaded for a mere $500 million. What’s important to understand about that price is the fact that it is not the result of a fire sale by a company in desperate need for cash — Occidental is doing just fine — nor is it due to a huge disconnect in the M&A market. Instead, the low reported sales price boils down to two things: poor timing and a less-than-ideal location. Once upon a time When Occidental Petroleum first put its North Dakota oil assets on the market, it was right around what, in hindsight, […]

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We all know Goldilocks from the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears in which the young maiden wanders into the home of the bears and samples some porridge that happens to be sitting on the dinner table. The first bowl is too hot, the second is too cold and the third is just right. Like a corporate version of Goldilocks, the oil industry has been wandering into the world marketplace in recent years often finding an oil price that is either too high such as in 2008 and therefore puts the brakes on economic growth undermining demand and ultimately crashing the price as it did in 2009. Or it finds the price too low as it is today therefore making it impossible to earn profits necessary for exploiting the high-cost oil that remains to be extracted from the Earth’s crust. Oil that hovered around $100 per barrel from […]

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As Niels Bohr famously said: “predictions are difficult, especially about the future.” And they are doubly difficult if you are talking about the future of oil. The more uncertain the future, the more vehemently each side presents its case. For years a debate has raged about peak oil, the dreaded moment when we start running out of accessible oil reserves, a debate made only more heated by suspicions of vested interests. So environmental campaigners have been crying out that modern society is about to be plunged into darkness, while oil industry experts have blithely assured us that the oil is there, and they will fetch it for us. Even if it lies several miles under the Arctic seabed or has to be stripped from tar in Canada. Down Dale Now BP chief economist Spencer Dale, a former Bank of England policymaker, has thrown his reputation into the fray by […]

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BP’s chief economist says that burning existing fossil fuel reserves would not be consistent with limiting global warming to 2C, as governments have pledged to do. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images The world’s oil resources are unlikely to ever be fully exploited, BP has admitted, due to international concern about climate change. The statement, by the group’s chief economist, is the clearest acknowledgement yet by a major fossil fuel company that some coal, oil and gas will have to remain in the ground if dangerous global warming is to be avoided. “Oil is not likely to be exhausted,” said Spencer Dale in a speech in London . Dale, who chief economist at the Bank of England until 2014, said: “What has changed in recent years is the growing recognition [of] concerns about carbon emissions and climate change.” Scientists have warned that most existing fossil fuel reserves must stay in the […]

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Fear over the environmental impact of using oil, gas and coal reserves means we may never run out of untapped energy stores, according to a leading petroleum industry economist. “Concerns about carbon emissions and climate change mean that it is increasingly unlikely that the world’s reserves of oil will ever be exhausted,” BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale told the Society of Business Economists Tuesday. This means the relative price of oil will not necessarily increase overtime, reports Reuters. Spencer’s remarks come amid concerns that an oversupply of oil is pushing the price of crude back under $50 a barrel. Global oil demand is slipping, at a time when supply is high, The Wall Street Journal reports . This is putting downward pressure on oil prices. Consulting firm PVM oil broker David Hufton told The WSJ oil prices could be higher, “as long as OPEC do not produce more than […]

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2015 Could Be The Year Of Peak Oil … I am now more convinced than ever that 2015 will see the peak in world crude oil production. I have very closely studied the charts of every producing nation and my prognosis is based on that study. I see many nations in steep decline and most every other nation peaking now, or in the last couple of years, or very near their peak today. These include the world’s three largest producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Oil Mountain (Image: D. Bacon/Shutterstock/Economist) China Peak Oil: 2015 Is the Year Domestic production looks set to peak, with some profound implications for the world market. Intense focus on the North American shale boom, Saudi Arabia, and ISIS obscures an important emerging energy trend: China’s oil production is peaking. This has profound implications for the world oil market, because China is not just […]

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How important is oil to the future of the global economy? The remarkable economic expansion of in the United States and other industrial nations over the past century or more has been fueled by a steadily growing supply of low-cost energy—mostly from fossil fuels—oil in particular which accounts for more global energy consumption than any other source. But there is growing uncertainty whether this trend will continue as it has in the past. How will shifting trends regarding the cost, demand, and supply for oil affect the global economy and the outlook for investment and economic growth? Guests: Stephen P.A. Brown – professor of economics and director, Center for Business and Economic Research , Lee Business School, University of Nevada, Las Vegas; visiting fellow, Resources for the Future ; associate editor, Energy Policy Mark Lewis – senior analyst for energy, climate, and sustainability research, Kepler Cheuvreux ; former head […]

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Summary Global annual population growth peaked in 1988 and is decelerating. Global annual population growth is estimated to be back to 1950 levels by 2050 but the bulk of "growth" will be among 65+ year olds living longer…not greater births. Substituting lower interest rates and encouraging more debt for declining population growth (consumption) was and is a tragic error by our central bankers. The idea that global population growth will perpetually drive increasing demand for food, natural resources, real estate, consumer goods, and global trade is a common theme. This idea of ever greater demand drives most investors thinking and actions. The premise the world currently operates under is that demand (consumption) will grow driven by population increases coupled with wage increases and be magnified by access to credit. The resultant growth will allow rapidly growing debt to be serviced / paid by even more rapidly growing global trade. […]

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Without the latest technologies to increase production, there is a good chance that Iranian oilfields will be exhausted in the near future, says the deputy for technology and international affairs at the Research Institute of Petroleum Industry. “Even if the country focuses all its energy on completing the value chain in oil and gas industries, without new drilling techniques to exploit our reserve of nearly 650 billion barrels of crude oil, we will still fail to harvest the maximum capacity of oilfields,” Amir Abbas Hosseini told ILNA. The official had previously announced that the institute is seeking a strategic mechanism to raise oil extraction rate by nearly 11% and that the current extraction rate is a long way from the target rate of 35%, because extraction procedures are lacking know-how. “Failing to do so would lead to a production decline through the second half of the operational oilfields’ lifecycle […]

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Shell announced this week that it was abandoning efforts to develop oil from the Alaska’s outer continental shelf (OCS). The company had drilled a well in the Burger prospect in the Chukchi Sea this past summer, but the results were disappointing. Although the company found hydrocarbons, the flows were insufficient to warrant further exploration. With that, Shell decided to suspend activities in Alaskan waters indefinitely. Shell had such high hopes. If all went well, it would have produced an average of 650,000 barrels of oil for 35 years from the OCS. From 2025 until 2060, the OCS would power Alaska’s economy and contribute up to 10 per cent of domestic US oil production. The project, which we estimated would cost more than US$300 billion in total, would have represented the largest infrastructure project in the United States in the next 15 years. There was no more visionary initiative anywhere […]

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Many environmentalists hope, and oil producers worry, that we’re entering a post-car era spearheaded by tech-savvy, bike-path-loving, urban-dwelling, Uber-using millennials—leaving behind generations of automobile owners whose thirst for gasoline seemed limitless. “Millennials have been reluctant to buy items such as cars,” a Goldman Sachs GS 1.30 % analysis concludes, turning to “what’s being called a ‘sharing economy.’ ” David Metz, former chief scientist at England’s Department of Transport, claims that the growth of Uber and its competitors guarantees a decline in automobile and fuel use. Thomas Frey, the DaVinci Institute senior futurist, says that “wealthy economies have already hit peak car.” The idea may seem plausible given recent history: tepid new-car sales, fewer miles driven per capita and shrinking gasoline use. In reality, it’s poppycock: The car habits of young adults ages 18-33 simply reflected a lack of jobs and money. Now J.D. Power finds that millennials are the […]

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(Bloomberg) — The speed at which oil producers shut down wells spitting out their final drops of unprofitable crude may speed the drop in U.S. output and hold the key to an eventual rebound if prices fall further. Crude prices tumbling to $30 a barrel would threaten the profitability of about 206,000 barrels per day of production from older wells that produce minimal amounts of oil, according to a report Thursday from Bloomberg Intelligence. The wells, which are most prevalent in Texas’ Permian Basin, are about 25 years old on average and produce no more than 15 barrels a day. They require regular maintenance to help pump even that much after years of sagging pressure. "These wells dance on the edge of profitability," Peter Pulikkan and William Foiles, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in the report. "The reaction of smaller mom-and-pop operators to sustained low oil prices will dictate […]

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According to EIA data, monthly US crude oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.6 mb/d. Fig 1: US crude oil production to June 2015 The above graph shows that US crude production increased by around 4 mb/d between mid 2011 and mid 2015, mostly from shale oil which took off – with a delay – when oil prices exceeded US$ 80-90. That stellar growth has come to an end, also with a delay, after oil prices plummeted. Let’s zoom into the period starting with January 2014: Fig 2: US incremental crude production Jan 2014 – Jun 2015 The April 2015 peak was caused by higher GOM production resulting from production start-ups after lifting the drilling moratorium in 2010. Shale oil peaked one month earlier, after the winter drop. However, month by month production can change and future revisions of data are likely due to reporting delays. What is […]

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Living Renewable Energy By Robert and Sonia Vogl President and Vice President Illinois Renewable Energy Association We were both surprised and pleased that Chris Schneider of Honda Motorwerks in LaCrosse returned to being an important presence at the annual Renewable Energy and Sustainability Fair. He is a long-standing advocate of hybrid electric vehicles and always provides an up to date presentation on progress in providing cleaner transportation options. His presence supplements the fine presentations by Tom Brunka on electric vehicle conversions, Allen Penticoff on sustainable cars of the future and Jeff Green on amazing batteries in our future. Schneider acknowledged that low gasoline prices are negatively impacting the sales of hybrid and electric vehicles but believes as many others do that low gasoline prices may not last very much longer. He did point out the existence of impressive savings on used electric vehicles. Brunka took advantage of the low […]

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Summary Expect higher gasoline and oil prices in 200 days. US Peak Oil from Fracking was in July 2015. US Oil Production down 474,000 barrels per day since July 2015. Watch EIA TWIP Report to understand oil inventories. “Glut” of oil to deplete in 200 days. Two forces, acting in opposite directions, will soon align to cause gasoline and oil prices to ratchet much higher. Those two forces can be easily tracked by watching EIA’s “ This Week in Petroleum ” or TWIP. The two forces are: US crude oil domestic production. US crude oil stocks The current TWIP reports a 474,000 barrel per day decrease in US oil production since July 2015. (click to enlarge) seeking alpha 2 Comments on "$4 Gasoline By May 2016" makati1 on Wed, 30th Sep 2015 10:31 pm “Two forces, acting in opposite directions, will soon align to cause gasoline and oil prices […]

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Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added benefit that Peak Oil must be far off in the distance, since “Peak Oilers” talked about high oil prices. Thus, low oil prices are viewed as an all around benefit. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. The Peak Oil story we have been told is wrong . The collapse in oil production comes from oil prices that are too low, not too high. If oil prices or prices of other commodities are too low, production will slow and eventually stop. Growth in the world economy will slow, lowering inflation rates as well as economic growth rates. We encountered this kind of the problem in the 1930s. We seem to be headed in the same direction today. Figure 1, used by Janet […]

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Quebec environmental groups are calling on the government to publish the results of 2015 drilling for shale gas on Anticosti Island and to hold an environmental review. (Radio-Canada) The Quebec government is not being straightforward about the data it has on shale-gas exploration on Anticosti Island, a coalition of environmental and citizens’ groups said Friday. The coalition is asking the Liberal government to order environmental review hearings through its provincial assessment agency, known as the BAPE, and to publish the results of its drilling activities on Anticosti. The director of Nature-Québec, Christian Simard, said there are eleven sites where drilling has been completed over the past two years. Simard said in 2014, the findings were published on the government’s website, however, this year’s findings have yet to be made public. "It is time to have an assessment, and to make it public — to open a debate," he said. […]

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Art Berman is out with a new deck: “ The North American Unconventional Revolution & The 2014-2015 Oil Price Collapse ” (pdf) and it’s a great review of US shale, Saudi/OPEC response, and the great price fall over the past year. As always, Art is out to tell you some facts you don’t often see in the headlines: The story of the price collapse is pretty simple: It’s Chinese demand fall + US oil production growth + response of Saudi oil production growth. That’s pretty much it. Lower demand and production gains leading to surplus and lower prices. The heroic tales of rig productivity and drilling efficiency gains are what oil companies have to tell investors to show a brave face. Dig a little deeper to realize – what should be obvious to everyone – that companies are getting killed at these low prices. But future higher oil prices […]

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The latest catch phrase to enter the lexicon of the oilpatch is “lower for longer.” One assumes it simply means oil prices are down and will stay that way for a long time. The difference between a catch phrase and an essay is the detail for purposes of definition. “Lower” must be oil prices below what they used be, although in fact they are not lower than they have ever been. “Longer” refers to an extended period of time, clearly undefined. “Longer” after the oil price collapse of 1985 was over 15 years. Oil is often treated as something a bit more special than a typical commodity because it is so essential to modern life. But let’s take a simple definition for “commodity”, such as, “any useful or valuable thing…something that is bought and sold”, and when the price of this thing falls to the point that it is […]

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Offshore oil platform image via shutterstock. Reproduced at Resilience.org. Whatever happened to “peak oil” – the assertion that the rate at which oil is extracted from the Earth is nearing a maximum or peak level? With falling oil and gasoline prices and a boom of new oil development in the United States and elsewhere, concern about global oil supplies have faded from public view. But have concerns about peak oil really disappeared? What key factors have changed in the oil industry, and what challenges remain? Are we entering a new era of “abundance” or are the risks of the world’s dependence on oil rising? Guests: Key Questions: Cost : What are the trends regarding costs to maintain global oil production now and in the future? Are costs of developing new oil rising or are fracking and other technologies driving production costs down? Do falling prices mean that oil is […]

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The end, said a reincarnated Cassandra, is nigh. Abundant supplies of fossil fuels will end, bringing down the economic order with it. After all, she argued, at current rates of production, oil will run out in 53 years, natural gas in 54, and coal in 110. We have managed to deplete these fossil fuels – which have their origins somewhere between 541 and 66 million years ago – in less than 200 years since we started using them. Cassandra – the Princess of Troy – had been blessed with the gift of prophesy by the Greek God, Apollo. In her modern avatar, she projected how many years these fuels would last by measuring the R/P ratios (that is the ratio of reserves to current rates of production) of fossil fuels. She juxtaposed it with the World Energy Outlook study by the International Energy Agency, which estimated that even with […]

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The Texas RRC Oil & Gas Production numbers are out. They came out on a weekend this month. All RRC data is through July. The EIA data is through June. Keep in mind that the RRC data is incomplete, that is why the chart lines droop on the end. However the EIA data is from the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly , the data of which the EIA says now comes directly from the states, and reflects the complete best estimate of oil production. (Click to enlarge) According to the EIA data, Texas crude + condensate peaked, so far, in March and declined in April, May and June. However the incomplete data from the RRC shows production likely dropping sharply in April, up in May then flat for June and July. (Click to enlarge) Dr. Dean Fantazzini has an algorithm that uses past and present RRC data and predicts what […]

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The Origins of Peak Oil Awareness The scientific study of peak oil began in the 1950′s, when Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert reported on the evolution of production rates in oil and gas fields. In a 1956 paper Hubbert suggested that oil production in a particular region would approximate a bell curve, increasing exponentially during the early stages of production before eventually slowing, reaching a peak when approximately half of a field had been extracted, and then going into terminal production decline. Hubbert applied his methodology to oil production for the Lower 48 US states and offshore areas. He estimated that the ultimate potential reserve of the Lower 48 US states and offshore areas was 150 billion barrels of oil. Based on that reserve estimate, the 6.6 million barrels per day (bpd) extraction rate in 1955, and the 52.5 billion barrels of oil that had been previously produced in […]

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Fig 1: Refugees walking on Hungarian motorway towards Austria in Sep 2015. [Image via Wikipedia, Creative .20 license.] In May 2013 the Guardian had an article “Peak oil, climate change and pipeline geopolitics driving Syrian conflict” http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/may/13/1 In March 2015, a group of researchers led by climatologist Colin Kelley (University of California) published a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences with the title “Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought” “Between 2006 and 2009, the people of Syria suffered during the most severe drought that country has experienced since the beginning of its instrumental record. As water became scarce, crops failed and cattle died on a huge scale. As many as 1.5 million Syrians, out of a population of just over 20 million, moved from the countryside to the outskirts of already overflowing cities” In this article we analyse […]

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The Origins of Peak Oil Awareness The scientific study of peak oil began in the 1950′s, when Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert reported on the evolution of production rates in oil and gas fields. In a 1956 paper Hubbert suggested that oil production in a particular region would approximate a bell curve, increasing exponentially during the early stages of production before eventually slowing, reaching a peak when approximately half of a field had been extracted, and then going into terminal production decline. Hubbert applied his methodology to oil production for the Lower 48 US states and offshore areas. He estimated that the ultimate potential reserve of the Lower 48 US states and offshore areas was 150 billion barrels of oil. Based on that reserve estimate, the 6.6 million barrels per day (bpd) extraction rate in 1955, and the 52.5 billion barrels of oil that had been previously produced in […]

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“It takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast,” the Red Queen told Alice in Lewis Carroll’s novel “Through the Looking-Glass”. Oil companies have to invest heavily simply to offset the impact of natural decline rates on their existing fields, and even more if they want actually to increase production. The need for continued investment and drilling to maintain output as a result of the rapid decline rates on shale wells has been widely discussed. But decline rates on conventional oil fields are even more important because they account for more than 90 percent of global production. Decline rates on conventional fields will play a critical part rebalancing the oil market and determining where oil prices settle in the longer term. Decline rates will cut output by several million […]

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Despite the attention-grabbing economic volatility that is grabbing headlines, it’s important to keep our eye on the energy story firmly in focus. This is especially true as the headlines we regularly read about Peak Oil being dead " are "manifestly false" according to this week’s podcast guest, petroleum geologist Jeffrey Brown. As concerning as the fact that global oil production has plateaued over the past decade, despite trillions invested in trying to goose it higher, are Brown’s forecasting model for oil exports. His Export Land Model shows how rising internal consumption can swing (and has swung) countries from major exporters to permanent importers within a dizzyingly short period of time: The crucial issue to understand about what has happened after 2005 is that we’ve had a very large increase in global gas production and natural gas liquids, but a much slower increase in crude plus condensate. So, what I […]

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Read Part 1 of the series. Confusion dawns upon the smartest men in the room (photo by Rafael Matsunaga) As I began to mention at the end of the first part of this three-parter, I’ve only just recently come to the conclusion that oil prices aren’t going to have a tendency to rise due to the tightening of supply imposed by peak oil , but to depreciate. This of course flies in the face of the common logic of supply and demand, but when factoring in the method by which the majority of our money is created, a deflationary effect can be seen to come into play. This has taken me an absurdly long time to clue into, for although I’d steadfastly amassed a bunch of pieces (various information), I hadn’t realized they were actually all part of the same puzzle. With peak oil and fractional-reserve banking being the […]

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A container box is loaded on to a truck at a port in Rizhao, Shandong province, August 12, 2015. If you were looking for a bright spot in China’s dismal trade numbers for August, your eyes may be tempted to focus on crude oil imports. A total of 26.59 million tonnes, equivalent to 6.26 million barrels per day (bpd) were imported, according to customs data. While this was a 13.4-percent drop from July’s 30.71 million tonnes, it’s worth bearing in mind that July was the record high in terms of tonnes and some pullback was always likely. August’s imports were up 5.6 percent from the same month last year. What’s more important is that crude imports are up 9.8 percent in the first eight months of the year compared to the same period in 2014, at 220.67 million tonnes, or about 6.63 million bpd. A gain of almost 10 […]

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Russia is overhauling its approach to crafting the budget next year to safeguard reserves, highlighting the challenges it faces in steering the recession-hit economy through a downturn in oil prices. Russia used 900 billion rubles ($13 billion) in the first eight months from the Reserve Fund, one of its two sovereign wealth funds, to cover the deficit, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Wednesday at a government meeting in Moscow. The non-oil shortfall, the gap excluding revenue from the energy industry, was 11 percent of economic output in the first half, the widest in 10 years, according to Siluanov. To temper the effects of the unfolding crisis on public finances, the government is suspending the so-called budget rule in 2016, a week after announcing plans to drop three-year fiscal plans in favor of a one-year program. The rule, which went into effect in 2013 and sought to cap public spending […]

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Fig 1: Western Europe oil consumption, oil prices in $2014 Total oil consumption peaked 3 times at around 14 mb/d: (1) In 1973, the 1 st oil crisis which was triggered by the Yom Kippur war. The following OPEC embargo was successful because US oil production had peaked 3 years earlier so the US could not increase production to offset OPEC’s reduction (2) In 1979, the 2 nd oil crisis which was caused by Iranian oil production peaking in the mid seventies and the following Iranian revolution, resulting in a global recession in 1982 (3) In 2005, at the beginning of the 3 rd oil crisis when global crude oil production had a peak and declined until 2007 3 main oil consumers Germany, UK and France The oil crises in the 70s brought down consumption by 2 mb/d (oil prices increased 10-fold) through both energy conservation and a recession. […]

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Oil production in June matched its record peak from last year. Oil production in June rose to its highest levels since its record peak late last year, North Dakota regulators said Friday, adding that the current level of production could be maintained for about two years. Preliminary June numbers from the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources had production at 1,211,178 barrels per day. This was an increase of more than 8,500 daily barrels from the final May tally of 1,202,615 barrels per day. The active rig count in the state was at 74 on Friday. Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, said production has maintained due to operators primarily drilling in the most productive parts of the oil patch and increasing efficiencies with staff and equipment. Well completions by hydraulic fracturing increased from a final May count of 116 to a preliminary total of 149 […]

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Market fundamentalists tell us that prices convey information. Yet, while our barbers and hairdressers might be able to give us an extended account of why their prices have changed in the last few years, commodities such as oil– which reached a six-year low last week –stand mute. To fill that silence, many people are only too eager to speak for oil. And, they have been speaking volumes. So much information in that one price! First, as prices fell last year when OPEC refused to cut its oil production in the face of slowing world demand, the industry kept saying that it could continue to produce from American tight oil fields at around $80 a barrel and be profitable . Then, as prices fell further, the industry and its consultants assured everyone that while growth in tight oil production would slow, it would still be profitable for the vast majority […]

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The world population is 7.3 billion presently. It will surpass 11 billion by the end of the century, according to UN Population Division projections The world population is growing at an unprecedented rate. It will nearly double as much as we have today by 2100. Currently, the world population is 7.3 billion. It will be 9.7 million in 2050 and will cross 11 billion by the end of the century, according to United Nations Population Division . The global population growth will be largely driven by Africa. The continent’s current population is 1.2 billion. It is expected to triple or quadruple over the next 85 years. This is all due to consistent rapid growth in population in the region. Nigeria will likely be the biggest contributor if it continues to follow the current trend. United States will also have a significant increase in population. The country is projected to […]

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Princeton University geologist Ken Deffeyes predicted that global oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, 2005 . In 2005, daily global oil production averaged 85 million barrels per day. Daily petroleum liquids production in July was 96 million barrels per day. For the past six months global oil prices have been falling steeply. Today West Texas Intermediate was selling for $43.20 per barrel. That means the price per barrel is just over $31 in inflation adjusted 2000 dollars. CNBC cite analysts who project that the price will fall further into the $30s per barrel range soon. Should the price fall to $30 dollars, that would be about $22 per barrel in 2000 dollars. That would be nearly back to what the price was 15 years ago . Read it and weep peak oilers NYMEX

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In the quiet of summer, a couple of U.S. scientists argued in the pages of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that modern civilization has drained the Earth — an ancient battery of stored chemical energy — to a dangerous low. Although the battery metaphor made headlines in leading newspapers in China, India and Russia, the paper didn’t garner “much immediate attention in North America,” admits lead author John Schramski, a mechanical engineer and an ecologist. And that’s a shame, because the paper gives ordinary people an elegant metaphor to understand the globe’s stagnating economic and political systems and their close relatives: collapsing ecosystems. It also offers a blunt course of action: “drastic” energy conservation. It, too, comes with a provocative title: “Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid discharge of the Earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind.” The battery metaphor speaks volumes and then some. In […]

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Oil pumps image via shutterstock. Reproduced at Resilience.org with permission. Many oil companies had trimmed their budgets heading into 2015 to deal with lower oil prices. But the rebound in April and May to $60 per barrel from the mid-$40s suggested that the severe drop was merely temporary. But the collapse of prices in July – owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China – have darkened the mood. Now a prevailing sense that oil prices may stay lower for longer has hit the markets. Oil futures for delivery in December 2020 are currently trading $8 lower than they were at the beginning of this year even while immediate spot prices are $4 higher today. In other words, oil traders are now feeling much gloomier about oil prices several years out than they were at the beginning of […]

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