Category: Peak Oil

Second Conference on Economic Degrowth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity March 26-29th 2010, Barcelona Peak oil is not some fuzzy academic concern but a reality: for the US in 1970, for some 60 of 80 oil-producing countries and, at least for the moment, for the world since about 2005. In addition the net energy delivered to society (as opposed to the total) is declining in recent decades from 30 or more to one to ten or less to one as we have exhausted our largest, shallowest, closest to shore and highest quality oil and gas fields. While technological improvements have slowed the effects of depletion the net effects are that there is a declining EROI (Energy Return on Energy [and money] Invested). Most alternatives to oil and gas except hydroelectric or coal have a small or very small EROI, and even for these the highest EROI sites in […]

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Peak oil is seen by many oil experts and economists as a major threat to the stability of the global economy and social structure. In 1956, M King Hubbert developed models that correctly foretold that between 1965 -70 oil production in the United States of America would reach a peak and then decline. This model known, as Hubbert’s Peak has proved to be acceptably accurate in forecasting the rise and fall in production for oil-fields both regionally and nationally. The reliance of western economies on oil Most of the important component activities of an industrialised nation such as the UK are dependent on the use of oil. For example, most forms of mechanical transport rely on oil for fuel or lubrication. Therefore, what is produced in factories or farms and then sent to the marketplace uses oil for transportation and probably in some stage of the production. Even the […]

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There has been very little new data to report lately. The JODI, Joint Organizations Data Initiative , data for March came out a few days ago. JODI is very good as far as the data it reports goes. The problem is there is a lot of data they just don’t report. If a country does not report their production for a given month then JODI just leaves it blank. And some countries they can’t seem to get any data from, so JODI just gives them zero for every month. For those countries I just substitute EIA numbers. As far as OPEC goes JODI is very political, reporting the inflated numbers that Iran and Venezuela report. I use instead the EIA data for those two countries.  Anyway here is what I have from JODI. The Data is in kb/d, last data point March 2014: But for a few countries JODI […]

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If oil is “just another commodity,” then there shouldn’t be any connection between oil prices, debt levels, interest rates, and total rates of return. But there clearly is a connection. On one hand,  spikes in oil prices are connected with recessions . According to economist James Hamilton,  ten out of eleven post-World War II recessions have been associated with spikes in oil prices . There also is a logical reason for oil price spikes to be associated with recession: oil is used in making and transporting food, and in commuting to work. These are necessities for most people. If these costs rise, there is a need to cut back on non-essential goods, leading to layoffs in discretionary sectors, and thus recession. On the other hand, the manipulation of interest rates and the addition of governmental debt (by spending more than is collected in tax dollars) are the primary ways […]

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If oil is “just another commodity,” then there shouldn’t be any connection between oil prices, debt levels, interest rates, and total rates of return. But there clearly is a connection. On one hand, spikes in oil prices are connected with recessions . According to economist James Hamilton, ten out of eleven post-World War II recessions have been associated with spikes in oil prices . There also is a logical reason for oil prices spikes to be associated with recession: oil is used in making and transporting food, and in commuting to work. These are necessities for most people. If these costs rise, there is a need to cut back on non-essential goods, leading to layoffs in discretionary sectors, and thus recession. On the other hand, the manipulation of interest rates and the addition of governmental debt (by spending more than is collected in tax dollars) are the primary ways […]

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Generals and others have talked about the dangers of conflicts and/or wars being generated as resources are depleted ( Natural Resource Depletion and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape ). A conflict between Vietnam and China is an example of the tensions that can arise – in this case oil is the resource ( China Blames Vietnam ). But as the TIME cover shows, using the oil resources is just as dangerous, or more so, than running out of oil is –in other words it is a catch-22, a conundrum, or a no-win situation any way we choose to look at this situation that is only getting worse. Britain and France over in Europe are facing the problem of depletion: In just over five years Britain will have run out of oil, coal and gas, researchers have warned . A report by the Global Sustainability Institute said shortages would increase dependency […]

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Time for another roundup of some of the better peak oil stories from the last few months: Former BP geologist: Peak oil is here and it will ‘break economies’ (Raw Story) US Army colonel: world is sleepwalking to a global energy crisis (The Guardian) Peak oil theory, as originally conceived by Hubbert and his followers, was largely governed by natural forces.  As we have seen, however, these can be overpowered by the application of increasingly sophisticated technology.  Reservoirs of energy once considered inaccessible can be brought into production, and others once deemed exhausted can be returned to production; rather than being finite, the world’s petroleum base now appears virtually inexhaustible. Does this mean that global oil output will continue rising, year after year, without ever reaching a peak?  That appears unlikely.  What seems far more probable is that we will see a slow tapering of output over the next […]

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The modern world is totally dependent on a continuing supply of energy from oil and other fossil fuels. However, recent natural disasters, global political upheavals, price hikes in the cost of gas, heating oil and electricity, and the eye-watering cost of filling up a car are signposts toward an unexpected, different, energy-constrained future. The central theme of this book is this: as traditional energy sources and in particular oil start to run short, we are sleepwalking into an energy crisis which will have farreaching effects on every part of the modern world. Christians and the church will have to grapple with these issues if we want to understand the context in which we will live, worship, minister and witness in the years ahead. In this book we aim to raise awareness of ‘peak oil’ and its consequences amongst Christians, and to prepare the church in practical ways for the […]

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Diving Into Stories of Energy Transition with Chris Nelder Part Two of Four.  Link to Part 1 . A transcript of our interview on Extraenvironmentalist #76  by Scott Bohachyk Editor’s note:  Last time we discussed nuclear power and the potential role it may have in the 21st century energy transition. This time we are discussing the story of peak oil and whether it has any validity. Justin: A core part of the story we were just talking about, in the audio we were playing from the film Pandora’s Promise film is the idea that we’re going to hit 9 or 10 billion people and consume two, three, four times as much energy as we do now, but one story that really counters that is the idea of geology limiting oil output and the peak oil story. Now that we can reflect back on a few years of recession, and […]

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Only weeks after the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott introduced “Team Australia to help China build the Asian Century” to the Boao Forum on the island of Hainan in the South China Sea we get a foretaste how this much hyped Asian Century will look like: many fights over oil and gas. In a well prepared action China moved a 30,000 ton, 1$ billion semi-submersible drilling rig (HD 981) into position in contested waters 220 kms off the Vietnamese coast near the Paracel islands, and just 330 km South East of Hainan where Abbott spoke. Vietnamese coast guard boats tried to interrupt the positioning of the rig but were attacked by water cannons and rammed by Chinese boats. For Vietnam control over offshore oil and gas is absolutely vital because oil production has peaked 10 years ago and gas is expected to peak by 2018. Abbott would neither know […]

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