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OPEC Policy Ensures U.S. Shale Crash, Russian Tycoon Says

At today’s prices of just over $70 a barrel, drilling is close to becoming unprofitable… Read More OPEC policy on crude production will ensure a crash in the U.S. shale industry, a Russian oil tycoon said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept output targets unchanged at a meeting in Vienna today even after this year’s slump in the oil price caused by surging supply from U.S shale fields. American producers risk becoming victims of their own success. At today’s prices of just over $70 a barrel, drilling is close to becoming unprofitable for some explorers, Leonid Fedun , vice president and board member at OAO Lukoil (LKOD) , said in an interview in London. “In 2016, when OPEC completes this objective of cleaning up the American marginal market, the oil price will start growing again,” said Fedun, who’s made a fortune of more than $4 billion in the […]

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More on Bakken Production, Choke Theory

The US Petroleum Supply Monthly just came out with production data for every state and territory. US supply was up 168,000 bpd to 8,864,000 bpd in September. The biggest gainers were North Dakota, up 53,000 bpd to 1,185,000 bpd and Alaska up 79,000 to 477,000 bpd. Alaska  was way down in both July and August and are just recovering from that.  There was only one big loser, New Mexico, down 18,000 bpd. Texas was up only 9,000 barrels per day which was surprising. The Gulf of Mexico was down 3,000 bpd. The Choke theory and why I ain’t buying it. North Dakota publishes a Daily Activity Report Index  of all permits and other well activity in the Bakken as well as the rest of North Dakota. In this report is a list of all producing wells completed as well as wells released from confidential (tight hole) status. Wells usually […]

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Monster Wells: Hundreds Of Fracking Wells Using 10-25 Million Gallons of Water Each

While the oil and gas industry likes to claim that fracking is not an especially water intensive process, a new report has found that there are more than 250 wells across the country that each require anywhere from 10 to 25 million gallons of water. The American Petroleum Institute suggests that the typical fracked well uses “the equivalent of the volume of three to six Olympic sized swimming pools,” which works out to 2-4 million gallons of water. But using data reported by the industry itself and available on the FracFocus.org website, Environmental Working Group has determined that there are at least 261 wells in eight states that used an average of 12.7 million gallons of water, adding up to a total of 3.3 billion gallons, between 2010 and 2013. Fourteen wells used over 20 million gallons each in that time period (see chart below). According to EWG, some […]

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IHS: U.S. Shale Production Growth Will Slow, but Still Remain High

ND Pump Jack | Click to Enlarge The dip in oil prices isn’t making a huge impact yet on the vast majority of U.S. shale production. According to a report by research consultancy IHS Energy , most shale plays are economic and ~80% of potential drilling in 2015 would remain strong at WTI crude oil prices as low as $70 per barrel. “Since 2008 the cumulative growth in U.S. tight oil production has been 3.5 million b/d—far exceeding supply gains from the rest of the world combined—making tight oil the key driver of global supply growth,” said Jim Burkhard, Vice President, IHS. “While current lower crude oil prices do present challenges for new investment, IHS analysis shows that the vast majority of potential U.S. supply growth in 2015 remain economical at $70 for WTI.” WTI traded at ~$76 on Monday, a nearly 20% drop since September. As a result, Bakken operators, including Emerald […]

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Texas oil boom starts taking hits from cheap gas

Falling oil prices are causing some drilling companies to cut back on operations in Texas . Baker Hughes Inc. recently reported shutting down four of its rigs in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico.  Oil rig counts have also dropped in North Dakota’s Bakken shale formation. From this year’s peak, oil prices have dropped 29 percent and are causing a slowdown in oil drilling operations.  Since 2010, gasoline at the pump has reached an all-time low of under $3 per gallon, and crude oil is trading below $80 per barrel. According to Mike W. Thomas of the San Antonio Business Journal, “West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery settled at $76.51 a barrel recently on the New York Mercantile Exchange.” Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian and vice chairman of IHS Inc. Daniel Yergin said that oil prices in the lower $70s over a period of six months would […]

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Bakken Shale Rig Count Decreases by Four to 188

Bakken Oil Workers | Click to Enlarge The  Bakken-Three Forks rig count  decreased by four t0 188 rigs running across our coverage area by the end of last week. The NDIC notes 192 rigs are active in North Dakota, but around 13 of those are in the process of moving in and rigging up. In recent Bakken news, North Dakota hit 1,184,635 b/d oil in September 2014, setting a new record, according to the Department of Mineral Resources’ (DMR) November  Director’s Cut . That’s 50,000 more b/d than August. During the same month, North Dakota also had record monthly gas production (1,403,448 mcf/d), and reported the highest number of producing wells to date (11,741). Read more : North Dakota Breaks Records for Oil & Gas Activity The U.S. rig count increased by one to 1,929 rigs running by the end of last week. A total of 355 rigs were targeting natural gas (five more […]

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Where Oil and Politics Mix

Jim Wilson/The New York Times TIOGA, N.D. — In late June, as black and gold balloons bobbed above black and gold tables with oil-rig centerpieces, the theme song from “Dallas” warmed up the crowd for the “One Million Barrels, One Million Thanks” celebration. The mood was giddy. Halliburton served barbecued crawfish from Louisiana. A commemorative firearms dealer hawked a “one-million barrel” shotgun emblazoned with the slogan “Oil Can!” Mrs. North Dakota, in banner and crown, posed for pictures. The Texas Flying Legends performed an airshow backlit by a leaping flare of burning gas. And Gov. Jack Dalrymple was the featured guest. Traveling through the “economically struggling” nation, Mr. Dalrymple told the crowd, he encountered many people who asked, “Jack, what the heck are you doing out there in North Dakota?” to create the fastest-growing economy, lowest unemployment rate and (according to one survey) happiest population. Gov. Jack Dalrymple with […]

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Bakken Sweet Spots are Petering Out

The Bakken, as well as other shale oil areas, is not one homogeneous area where equal amounts of can be found. David Hughes in DRILLING DEEPER  puts it this way, though here he is talking about gas wells, the same applies to oil wells: All shale gas plays invariably have “core” areas or “sweet spots”, where individual well production is highest and hence the economics are best. Sweet spots are targeted and drilled off early in a play’s lifecycle, leaving lesser quality rock to be drilled as the play matures (requiring higher gas prices to be economic); thus the number of wells required to offset field decline inevitably increases with time. However the Bakken, at least through the September North Dakota Industrial Commission  production report, has given no real indication that the Bakken is even close to peaking. But a closer look at the data makes me believe that is […]

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WTI price no shale threat

Crude oil prices not yet leading to severe downturn in shale oil production from the United States. (UPI/Shutterstock/Lilac Mountain) HOUSTON, Nov. 21 (UPI) — The slump in crude oil prices hasn’t yet resulted in a slowdown in production from shale basins in the United States, analysis finds. Crude oil prices have fallen to the point that some major companies have trimmed their investment forecasts . It’s more expensive to drill into shale basins in the United States than elsewhere in the world and the price may be approaching a point where explorers need to cut back . "While current lower crude oil prices do present challenges for new investment, IHS analysis shows that the vast majority of potential U.S. supply growth in 2015 remain economical at $70 for West Texas Intermediate [the U.S. benchmark price]," Jim Burkhard, vice president at IHS Energy, said in a Thursday statement sent to […]

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North Dakota Breaks Records for Oil & Gas Activity – Sep. 2014

Bakken Oil Workers | Click to Enlarge The State of North Dakota hit 1,184,635 b/d oil in September 2014, setting a new record, according to the Department of Mineral Resources’ (DMR) November  Director’s Cut . That’s 50,000 more b/d than August. During the same month, North Dakota also had record monthly gas production (1,403,448 mcf/d), and reported the highest number of producing wells to date (11,741). But this month, the state’s record breaking oil and gas activity is overshadowed by falling crude oil prices. September was a relatively good month for oil at ~93.00 on average for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), but prices have dropped nearly ~$20 in the last two months. According to the DMR’s report, released on November 14, 2014, the current rig count is down 15% in the states five most active counties: Divide – down 54% Dunn – down 29% McKenzie – down 4% Mountrail […]

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