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Natural Gas Rising Again as Weather Forecasts Show More Heat Coming

By Timothy Puko (Adds price tables.) NEW YORK–Natural-gas prices closed barely higher Tuesday, with traders continuing their tenuous push as forecasts show a heat wave on the way. The front-month September contract settled up 0.9 cent, or 0.2%, at $3.974 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It narrowly advanced a three-week high set Monday and was the market’s sixth gain in seven sessions. Only two of those gains have been larger than 1%. Several forecasts grew notably warmer Tuesday, causing the early buying, analysts said. Heat causes people to turn on air conditioning and use more gas-fired electricity, and the pattern developing for the weekend includes some of the strongest heat in what has been a mild season. Above-normal temperatures should cover nearly all of the country by Monday, according to MDA Weather Services. The record pace of production had dropped gas prices about […]

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Highlights of the latest OMR

Welcome to the OMR Subscriber’s website Please check that your usage of this website conforms to the licence you subscribe to at http://www.iea.org/oilmar/licenceomr.html. Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 12th August 2014 Crude prices fell in July and early August as weak OECD refinery runs in June offset concerns about escalating conflicts in Iraq, Libya and Ukraine. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was below $105/bbl on hopes that US air strikes would lower disruption risks in major OPEC producer Iraq. WTI was around $98/bbl. The global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been lowered to 1.0 mb/d on lower-than-expected 2Q14 deliveries and a weaker GDP outlook from the IMF. Growth is set to accelerate to 1.3 mb/d in 2015 as the economy improves. Baseline demand estimates have been raised to reflect new 2012 non-OECD annual data. OPEC crude oil supply rose by 300 kb/d to 30.44 mb/d in […]

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World Awash in Oil Shields Markets From 2008 Price Shock

Fighting across Iraq, Libya , Ukraine and Gaza, and an accelerating economy, should mean higher oil prices . Yet crude is falling. Six years ago, oil soared to a record $147 a barrel as tension mounted over Iran’s nuclear program and the world economy had just seen the strongest period of sustained growth since the 1970s. Now, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price, has traded below $100 for 10 days and Brent, the European equivalent, tumbled to a 13-month low. What’s changed is the shale fracking boom. The U.S. is pumping the most oil in 27 years, adding more than 3 million barrels of daily supply since 2008. The International Energy Agency said yesterday that a supply glut is shielding the market from disruptions. Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and BNP Paribas SA concur. “ North America has pushed out an incredible amount of crude oil that […]

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IEA Lowers 2014 Oil Demand Growth Forecast

By Summer Said World oil demand will rise less than previously thought in 2014, due to a lower outlook for the global economy and demand growth in the second quarter falling to its lowest level in more than two years, the energy watchdog said Tuesday. In its monthly oil-market report, the International Energy Agency–which advises industrialized nations on oil policies–trimmed its projection for growth in global demand this year to 1 million barrels a day, down 180,000 barrels a day, citing weaker-than-expected demand in the second quarter. "Despite armed conflict in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine, the oil market today looks better supplied than expected, with an oil glut even reported in the Atlantic basin," the report said. "Remarkably low oil deliveries in both Europe and North America helped slash this report’s estimate of global demand growth for the second quarter of 2014 to less than 700,000 barrels a day […]

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With Natural Gas Byproduct, Iran Sidesteps Sanctions

Iran is finding a way around Western sanctions to export increasing amounts of an ultralight oil to China and other Asian markets, expanding the value of its trade by potentially billions of dollars a year. The exports come during a slight thaw in Iran’s relations with the West as negotiations over its nuclear program continue, and energy experts say it is counting on the United States and Europe to tolerate an increasing export stream. According to Iranian customs data, the country in recent months has exported 525,000 barrels a day of the ultralight oil, known as condensates, over two times more than it did a year ago. In the last three months, the sales have generated as much as $1.5 billion in extra trade — a rate of about $6 billion a year — based on Iranian trade figures and market prices, analysts said. The result has been an […]

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IEA: Oil demand growth forecast lowered on downgraded economic outlook

HOUSTON, Aug. 12 08/12/2014 The global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been curtailed since last month’s report to a more modest 1 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent Oil Market Report . The revision was primarily due to lower-than-expected second-quarter deliveries and downgraded macroeconomic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Demand growth is forecast to accelerate in 2015 to 1.3 million b/d as the economy improves. Global oil supply in July averaged 93 million b/d, up 230,000 b/d from a month ago and 840,000 b/d from a year ago. With a boost from Saudi Arabia and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than offsetting losses in Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria, production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 300,000 b/d to 30.44 million b/d in July, a 5-month high. The “call” on OPEC crude and stock […]

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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Highlights The market’s perception of reduced risk to Iraqi oil exports and news regarding increasing Libyan oil exports contributed to a drop in the Brent crude oil spot price to an average of $107 per barrel (bbl) in July, $5/bbl lower than the June average. EIA projects Brent crude oil prices to average $107/bbl over the second half of 2014 and $105/bbl in 2015. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from an average of $106/bbl in June to $104/bbl in July, despite record levels of U.S. demand for crude oil . The WTI discount to Brent, which averaged $11/bbl in 2013, is expected to average $8/bbl and $9/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively, both $1/bbl lower than projected in last month’s STEO. Regular gasoline retail prices fell to an average of $3.61 per gallon (gal) in July, 8 cents/gal below the June average. Regular gasoline retail prices […]

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Expats Flee Iraq’s Oil Boomtown as Islamic State Attacks

Marc Kolber, a native of Long Island , has spent more than three years overseeing the construction of offices for foreign oil companies in Iraqi Kurdistan . Now he’s joining an exodus of expatriates from the capital, Erbil. “The expat community in Erbil was thriving, it was a very welcoming and inclusive society,” Kolber said in a telephone interview as his employer made arrangements to evacuate staff. “But now about 80 percent of expats have left.” The Kurdistan region of Iraq has attracted hundreds of foreigners in the past five years, enticed by a mixture of oil, security and growing prosperity. The autonomous region, largely free from the violence that’s plagued the rest of the country, has some of largest untapped oil fields in the world. Related: Islamic State fighters are battling Kurdish troops just 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Erbil, threatening the energy boom that’s brought a thriving […]

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Militants Hold Seven Iraq Oil Fields After Syria Blitz, IEA Says

Islamic State fighters have captured seven oil fields in Iraq with a total output capacity of 80,000 barrels a day, adding to energy deposits they seized earlier in neighboring Syria, the International Energy Agency said. The insurgents, who swept into northern Iraq in June, grabbed the Ain Zalah and Batma fields in Nineveh province this month, the IEA said today in its monthly oil market report. They already controlled the Najma, Qayara, Himreen, Ajeel and Balad fields, the agency said. The potential flow of oil from deposits they hold in Iraq would fetch about $8.4 million a day on international markets, based on yesterday’s closing price for benchmark Brent crude of $104.68 a barrel. The militants, tapping oil fields to supply their own fuel needs and generate revenue by smuggling, have advanced toward Iraq’s self-governed Kurdish region and its capital Erbil, the IEA said. They were about 30 kilometers […]

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U.S. Weighs Military Rescue Mission for Yazidi Refugees

Displaced Iraqis from the Yazidi community gather to receive food at a camp in Syria on Tuesday. Associated Press WASHINGTON—The U.S. is weighing a military mission in Iraq to rescue thousands of Yazidi refugees, a move that risks putting American forces in direct confrontation with Sunni fighters for the Islamic State. The proposal is still under development and hasn’t been approved by President Barack Obama . U.S. officials said the rescue mission is one of many options the U.S. military is weighing after dropping food and water to dying refugees over the past six days. "People are looking at ways to do something more than just drop water and supplies," one senior U.S. official said. "You can only do that for so long." Since last week, the U.S. has sought to halt the militants’ advance on the Kurdish city of Erbil and to relieve Yazidis trapped by the fighters […]

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