For everyone following today’s energy developments the overall picture is confusing, to say the least. This is particularly apparent with regard to oil supplies from mid-June onwards when the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL — also referred to as ISIS — Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) conflict flared up, with the insurgents making rapid advances across northern Iraq. It could be expected that the immediate knock-on effect of this conflict would be a surge in oil prices, much like the world experienced back in 2008 when there were similar tensions in the Middle East. Indeed, some commentators suggested that this would happen, claiming that ISIL was bent on controlling Iraqi crude oil and as a result there would be a global oil shock as prices skyrocketed. However, over at Chatham House and the Brookings Institution calmer heads were more cautious. […]