In 2009, the federal government’s Energy Information Administration made a forecast for the next two decades: U.S. wind power would grow modestly, reaching 44 gigawatts of generating capacity in 2030, while solar power would remain scarce, inching up to 12 GW. Just six years later, U.S. wind capacity is already up to 66 GW, and solar has shot up to 21 GW. There’s now enough installed wind and solar to power 25 million American homes— more than three times what the EIA expected before President Obama took office. Oops. As Yogi Berra recognized, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But the EIA isn’t just some random pundit. Its Annual Energy Outlook, the nation’s most comprehensive analysis of energy data, has tremendous influence in Washington and state capitals, providing the numbers that shape policies like Obama’s Clean Power Plan to regulate carbon emissions at power plants. So it really […]