Bank of Russia’s unexpectedly hawkish turn at its last rate meeting and the slump in oil prices are casting a shadow over the third-biggest bond rally in emerging markets. Bonds slid last week, pushing yields up the most since January and reining in this month’s returns for the country’s debt to 9.2 percent. The retreat still isn’t enough for analysts at banks including Renaissance Capital, Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale SA, who predict government bonds, or OFZs, have further to fall. OFZs “still do look expensive to us,” Oleg Kouzmin, a Moscow-based economist at Renaissance Capital and a former central bank adviser. “They ignore the risks that oil could be lower, with subsequent implications for the ruble and the policy rate.” Traders anticipating a resumption of rate cuts scrambled to scale back their bets last week after central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned March 18 that the “moderately tight” […]