The global oil surplus in the first half of this year will probably be smaller than previously estimated because of robust demand in India and other emerging nations, the International Energy Agency said. Supply will exceed demand by an average of 1.3 million barrels a day in the first six months of 2016, down from the 1.5 million projected a month ago, following surprisingly strong consumption in the first quarter, the Paris-based adviser said in a report. Still, further gains in oil prices “are likely to be limited by brimming crude and products stocks,” it predicted. “Changes to the data in this month’s report confirm the direction of travel of the oil markets towards balance,” said the agency, which advises 29 of the most industrialized nations on energy policy. “The global supply surplus of oil will shrink dramatically later this year.” The diminished glut indicates that OPEC’s policy, driven […]