Oil refinery August 11, 2016 may be the point in this oil price cycle that will mark the start of a sustained increase in crude oil prices. That’s the date that the International Energy Agency (IEA) published their forecast that demand for oil would exceed supply in the 3rd quarter. Shortly after the IEA’s Oil Market Report came out, the Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the kingdom would work with other producers to stabilize the market. Tighter supply and OPEC willing to curb production growth is a recipe for higher oil prices. When you step back and look at a longer time frame, it is clear that this oil price cycle which started in mid-2014 bottomed in February, 2016. The most recent pullback that started late in June and continued through early August was just the speculators overplaying their hand on the short side. The brief dip below […]