In this post I present developments in world crude oil (including condensates) supplies since January 2007 and per June 2016. Further a closer look at petroleum demand (consumption and stock changes) developments in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for the same period and what this implies about demand developments in non OECD. The data used for this analysis comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly Energy Review.
- The OECD has about half of total global petroleum consumption.
- Since December 2015 OECD total annualized petroleum consumption has grownabout 0.2 Mb/d [0.5%].
[Primarily led by growth in US gasoline and kerosene consumption, ref also figure 6.] - The OECD petroleum stock building was about 0.4 Mb/d during Jan-16 – Jun-16, which is a decline of about 0.6 Mb/d from the same period in 2015. This implies a 2016YTD net decline in total OECD demand of 0.4 Mb/d.
- World crude oil supplies, according to EIA data, have declined 1.3 Mb/d from December-15 to June-16, ref figures 1 and 2.
- The above implies that non OECD crude oil consumption/demand has declinedabout 1 Mb/d since December 2015.
This while the oil price [Brent Spot] averaged about $40/b.