In a previous post on US LTO future output there were suggestions that a bottom up approach might be better than the top down approach and I agree. I will attempt the bottom up approach here. The chart below is a quick summary, based on three different oil price scenarios (high, medium, and low). The dashed line is just the average of the low and high oil price scenarios. Data is from Enno Peters’ website shaleprofile.com and the EIA . (Click on “Tight Oil Production Estimates” for tight oil output data.) Clearly I do not know what future oil prices will be, but my expectation is that oil prices will be between the high and low price scenarios presented below. Note that oil prices are assumed to remain at $80/b, $100/b, and $120/b (all in 2016$) from 2040 to 2050 in the low, medium, and high oil price scenarios […]