The Chart above compares several different combinations of past (vintage) data to estimate output. The dotted line is based on the most recent 8 months (August 2016 to March 2017) of data saved from the RRC website, the blue solid line is based on the past 12 months of data, and the yellow line is based on the most recent 3 months of data. Each estimate uses the most recent 24 months of data from each month. A significant change in the size of the correction factors began in August 2016, which is the basis of the 8 month Corrected estimate. Dean Fantazzini prefers a 3 month estimate and an estimate using all vintage data (see chart below), I show the 3 month and 12 month estimates for comparison to the 8 month estimate, I expect the final data will be somewhere in the range of the 3 month […]