Last week we discussed how flows from Saudi Arabia into the U.S. were about to be surpassed by Iraq for the first time since 1985 (teeing up Back to the Future / Carly Simon / Tears for Fears references). With October closing out, this has now become fact. Such a reversal highlights Saudi Arabia’s ongoing willingness to give up market share…even if other cartel members are not. While Saudi’s drop has been stark, Kuwaiti deliveries have shown a gradual descent, highlighted by the 4-month moving average in the chart below. Imports in October were at 122,000 bpd, about two-thirds the average volume through the first nine months of the year. Kuwaiti crude heads to both the Gulf and West Coasts. Even though key recipients of Kuwaiti crude on the West Coast – Valero’s Benicia and Wilmington refineries – have continued to receive deliveries, there has not been a single delivery to the Gulf Coast in October for the first month on our records.