The price of oil has always been driven by cycles of fear and complacency. During the cycle of fear, geopolitical events can send the price of oil soaring. During the cycle of complacency, oil prices will fall on bad news (e.g., the appearance of too much supply or weakening demand), but often seem immune to bullish news. Over the past decade, the world has experienced both cycles. The Cycle of Fear A decade ago “peak oil” was helping drive the fear cycle, as many credible voices asserted that oil production was nearing terminal decline. For a while, it looked like they might be right. Production in […]