Each month, I publish reports on ten to fifteen publicly traded upstream oil & gas companies. Part of each report is my estimation of what the company would sell for in a negotiated transaction. I’ve been doing this for almost twenty years and during that time there have been several oil price cycles. The one that started in mid-2014 includes one of the most severe declines in crude oil prices in the last century. It has lasted much longer than the average cycle, which is about two years. (Click to enlarge) I have been working in the oil & gas industry for more than 40 years, so I have lived through several boom and bust periods for upstream companies. Here are a few observations: • Oil price cycles tend to overshoot on both the upside and the downside. The price of oil never stays at the “Right Price” for […]