Today, Iran is more stable than at this time last year. This may surprise Donald Trump’s US administration, which has imposed the toughest ever sanctions against the Islamic republic over its controversial regional and defense policies. Iranians had no clue where the US’s economic war was dragging them to last year as they saw their currency plunge about 60 percent on the open market. But as the republic tries to rebalance the economy, people have found some certainty in the uncertainty and have acted to lessen their economic vulnerability. Their resilience and hedging against rampant inflation will make it difficult for US hawks to push Iran towards the street protests – as in the 1979 revolution – and eventual regime change that they may seek.
Perhaps the US miscalculated the level of Iranians ‘ disillusionment with their rulers. Maybe Americans were misguided by opposition groups. It is true that the political establishment is challenged with anti-regime slogans and claims of corruption and that protests continue, although these are small and sporadic. The economy is contracting and an army of unemployed young people think they have no future in their homeland. The hopelessness is alarming. But Iran ‘s working class has no history of making a revolution by itself and the educated and influential middle class has to make a complex cost-benefit analysis based on the realities of daily life and the volatile region they live in. The public fear of the consequences of another upheaval should not be underestimated. Nor are the examples of the fates of Iran’s neighbours, Iraq and Afghanistan, or Syria appealing.
Meanwhile, the Islamic republic is adopting less repressive measures in a clear move to help release pent-up anger. Protests on economic issues are largely tolerated and the obligatory Islamic dress code is only loosely enforced – an easing made evident by the increasing number of women who appear in public without their headscarves. Live music in streets, cafes and restaurants in some big cities is a new normality. This is a pragmatist regime whose ideology puts the survival of the political establishment before Islamic rulings.
Iranian analysts tell me the US made one big mistake this time. It used almost all its non-military leverage against Iran over the wrong issue, because the country was not violating the 2015 nuclear accord. Iranians may despise their rulers but they are aware that the US is not righteous, either. How can they see Mr Trump as a saviour when he calls Iran “a nation of ter ror” and promises “the official end of Iran” ?
The threat of US oil sanctions so extreme that they would reduce the country’s economic lifeline to “zero” was a nightmare until it became reality this month. The sword was effective as long as it was held over Iran ‘s head. Now Europe has lost its leverage over Tehran, too.