Every price rally of 2019 has ended in tears. The latest will probably end similarly. It is based on hope that ending the U.S. – China trade war might improve the economy and oil demand. It is also based on belief that yet another OPEC+ production cut will make a difference. In other words, it is based on sentiment. WTI prices began increasing in early October from a low of $52.31 and reached $61.22 on December 19 (Figure 1). $52 was one standard deviation less than the WTI mean for the last 15 months. Each price rally of 2019 began within a dollar of this low and ended in the low-to-mid $60 range, about one standard deviation more than the mean. Figure 1. The oil price-rally that began in early October is probably at or near its peak. Source: Quandl and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. The current price rally […]