The coronavirus outbreak in China will curb global oil demand growth by at least a quarter this year, and the production cuts of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) proposed by an OPEC+ committee are far from enough to balance the market, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. Both the first and second quarters of 2020 will see global oil production surpluses. Our estimate shows that the first quarter of the year will see producers left with a stock build of 700,000 bpd. Our previous estimate was for a more or less balanced first quarter with a 100,000 bpd surplus. The second quarter threatens to build oil stocks by 1.3 million bpd unless production is reduced further. That means that even if the OPEC+ output cuts are implemented in the second quarter, there will still be a sizeable surplus of 700,000 bpd. “The economic shut-down in China will cause the largest […]