America’s simmering confrontation with Iran heated up again this week, with an exchange of deadly attacks between an Iranian-backed militia and U.S. forces in Iraq. U.S. commanders warn that the conflict could boil over again soon if Iran isn’t careful. U.S. commanders see this as a dangerous inflection point. Iran is reeling from the coronavirus and disoriented after the targeted killing of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in January. The country’s embattled leaders, looking for a rallying point, are messaging followers that they want to strike at U.S. forces and drive them from the region.

Iraq is the most explosive flashpoint in the undeclared war between the United States and Iran. On Wednesday night, Kataib Hezbollah, one of Iran’s closest Shiite militia partners in Iraq, fired a barrage of 30 Katyusha missiles at a base at Camp Taji, 17 miles north of Baghdad, killing two U.S. soldiers. U.S. forces retaliated Thursday by hitting five sites in Iraq where Kataib Hezbollah stores weapons, according to Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie Jr., the head of U.S. Central Command. Iraqi officials condemned the attacks, claiming that one strike hit the civilian airport at Karbala, which is used by Shiite pilgrims.

The U.S. retaliation was a limited response to the death of two Americans, given the menu of options. U.S. commanders had been ready for an order to strike Iran directly if Americans were killed. Such a direct hit on Iran would further roil financial and oil markets that have been in a free fall for much of this week, and a desire to avoid additional turbulence may partly explain the relative U.S. caution.

The impact of covid-19 has been severe in Iran, U.S. officials believe. The 429 officially reported deaths include members of parliament and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The 10,000 people officially afflicted with the virus reportedly include two vice presidents and a deputy health minister. Iranian authorities have taken extreme measures to try to protect Khamenei, U.S. officials believe.