China’s economy is set to post a 9% plunge in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the latest forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. A day after retail sales, industrial output and investment data plunged by far more than the median estimate of analysts, Goldman economists said their new forecast for 2020 real GDP growth is 3%, down from 5.5% earlier. The previous first-quarter forecast was for an expansion of 2.5%.
Annual growth of around 6% would be “well out of reach,” economists Hui Shan, Andrew Tilton and Yu Song wrote in the note dated March 17. “While more forceful policy support could present upside risk, the recovery could be further delayed if the pandemic is not brought under control globally over the next few months.” The weak global backdrop as the virus spreads in Europe and the U.S. will mean “the recovery in Chinese economic activity is likely to be constrained,” according to the report.
China has ample policy tools to counter the impact of the coronavirus outbreak and achieve the goal of building a ‘moderately prosperous society,’ according to officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, who spoke at a briefing in Beijing on Tuesday. Data Monday showed industrial output plunged 13.5% in January and February from a year earlier, retail sales fell 20.5%, and fixed-asset investment dropped 24.5%.