After four active hurricane seasons — each of which featured at least one violent Category 5 storm in the Atlantic — experts at Colorado State University are predicting another active hurricane season in 2020. Significantly, forecasters said they anticipate an “above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States.” This is due to above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a lack of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and other patterns setting up across the tropics. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, peaks in September and ends Nov. 30.
[Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify the upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons]
The predictions led by Colorado State University hurricane researcher and climatologist Philip Klotzbach, released Thursday, paint a disappointing picture for storm-weary coastal residents eager to catch a break.
The forecast
According to the projections, which will be refined as the season nears, there’s a nearly 70 percent chance of at least one major hurricane — reaching Category 3 strength or greater with winds exceeding 111 mph — making landfall on U.S. soil in the Lower 48.
That translates to a 45-percent risk for the East Coast, including Florida, and a 44-percent risk along the Gulf of Mexico. Those numbers are up from a century-long average of 31 percent and 30 percent respectively. There’s also a 58-percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, the outlook states.
Outside of major hurricanes, Klotzbach estimates a roughly 2-in-3 chance of a tropical storm or hurricane hitting the East Coast. That rises to 3-in-4 odds for the Gulf Coast.