Could anything good come out of the coronavirus pandemic? Amid mass deaths, lockdowns and the prospect of another Depression, it is hard to find a bright side. Yet one ray of light may be emerging from an unlikely venue – the UN. Last month, Antonio Guterres, the secretary-general, issued a call for a “global ceasefire” – to try to prevent the world’s warzones being further ravaged by Covid-19. Perhaps surprisingly, the call has had some effect on the ground – even in raging conflicts such as Yemen and Syria. Later this week, the push for a global ceasefire may gain momentum, if the UN Security Council approves a resolution backing the idea.
Ceasefires would make it possible to get medical supplies and food into war-torn countries threatened by Covid-19. The World Food Programme warned recently that millions of people in “about three dozen countries”, many of them conflict-zones, are now at risk of “famines of biblical proportions” because of the economic collapse caused by the pandemic.
Once a temporary ceasefire is in place, UN officials hope more lasting peace could be negotiated. One hopeful precedent – in which a tragedy was turned into something positive – is provided by the 2004 tsunami that hit the Asia-Pacific. The rescue efforts in the Indonesian province of Aceh helped initiate a peace process that eventually ended a decades-long conflict.
Lofty proclamations issued in New York are not, in themselves, going to persuade armies and militias to see the light and lay down their weapons. But a UN call for a ceasefire – allied to the genuine fear of Covid-19 – may give some warring parties the excuse they need to back away from conflict.
Richard Gowan at the International Crisis Group says that “Yemen is the big prize”. The war there has already claimed more than 100,000 lives and millions remain threatened by famine. Saudi Arabia announced a ceasefire two weeks ago in response to the UN appeal and has now extended it. Yemen watchers think the Saudi government might value a face-saving reason to pull away from a conflict that is going badly for them. The combination of Covid-19 and the UIS Screenshot ould provide that.