Merely a month ago India was perceived as one of the main potential winners of the oil price slump – with Middle Eastern differentials dropping beyond any reasonable level, its refiners were bound to print money with its massive downstream capacities. Now India is on the brink of becoming one of the key contributors to the price weakness. Local hydrocarbon production is ailing as oil is still to surpass the breakeven cost of Indian output that currently hovers around $35-37 per barrel. India’s downstream is struggling to stay relevant with the government-mandated lockdown that has minimized demand for refined products and compounded refiners’ access to labor with the nationwide movement restrictions. The coronavirus-induced lockdown, in place since March 24 and recently prolonged until May 03, will inevitably decimate the economic results of Q2 2020 and drop the annual GDP growth rate by some 3-4% to slightly more than 1%. […]