Although large emissions cuts are urgently needed to achieve global climate goals, it may take decades before we can measure the effect of the reductions on global temperature evolution, according to a new study by researchers at Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research. In the open-access study, published in Nature Communications , CICERO researchers Bjørn H. Samset, Jan S. Fuglestvedt and Marianne T. Lund analyzed how global warming will evolve under different assumptions on future emissions reductions. Time of emergence of a global mean surface temperature signal for idealized individual mitigation efforts of a range of short- and long lived climate forcers. The colored expanding bars show the evolution of a statistically significant signal (t-test, p < 0.05), from zero (minimum) to 32 (maximum) ensemble members. The circles show the first year when 66% (21 members) show significant signals. The error bars show the 25–75% range (8 and […]