Canadian oil sands production is expected to decline by nearly 175,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2020 as a result of COVID-19—the largest annual decline on record. However, the longer-term trajectory of oil sands production is expected to change little compared to pre-pandemic projections, according to a new 10-year forecast by IHS Markit. The new forecast by the IHS Markit Oil Sands Dialogue , which takes into account the “COVID-19 shock,” projects Canadian oil sands production to reach 3.8 million barrels per day (MMbd) in 2030—nearly 11 MMbd higher than 2020 levels. The previous IHS Markit forecast expected production to reach 3.9 MMbd in 2030. Prior to COVID-19, the coming decade was already expected to be one of sustained-but-slower growth for the oil sands, with transportation constraints such as a lack of adequate pipeline capacity and the resulting sense of price insecurity in western Canada weighing on new large-scale […]